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   LS_ARRL      Bulletins from the ARRL      3,036 messages   

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   Message 2,593 of 3,036   
   Daryl Stout to All   
   ARRL Propagation Bulletin   
   04 Mar 22 08:26:14   
   
   TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 128.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26875806   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/4f11e1dff Mar  2 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/4f11e1dff Mar  2 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP09   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 4, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through   
   March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to   
   44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.   
      
   Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index   
   declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106,   
   104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on   
   March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March   
   21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99   
   and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on   
   April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on   
   March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March   
   16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5   
   and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on   
   March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on   
   April 7-9.   
      
   Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH:   
      
   "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might   
   have surprised us if it were not for the information about the   
   increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside   
   sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft,   
   starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft   
   recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the   
   late hours of 15 February.   
      
   "One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a   
   better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have   
   recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity   
   observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising   
   several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we   
   experienced only occasional eruptions of class C.   
      
   "The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and   
   attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for   
   shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was   
   mainly due to seasonal changes."   
      
   Here is a link to see a new telescope:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6   
      
   Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency:   
      
   https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter   
      
   Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:   
      
   "Wow!   
      
   "10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing   
   today!   
      
   "I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first   
   checked band conditions.   
      
   "Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using   
   FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC,   
   VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan.   
      
   "Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again,   
   WOW!"   
      
   See stunning loops of plasma:   
      
   https://bit.ly/35OpX0V   
      
   Here is information about the termination event:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU   
      
   This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles   
   and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced   
   the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived:   
      
   https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22,   
   22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3,   
   96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a   
   mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3,   
   with a mean of 5.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 120/340 123/10 131 129/330   
   SEEN-BY: 129/331 153/7715 154/1 10 30 40 50 700 203/0 218/700 220/90   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 226/18 30 227/114 229/110 206 317 424 426 428 664 700   
   SEEN-BY: 240/5832 266/512 282/1038 301/1 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 2320/0 33 105 195 304 3634/12   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 301/1 229/426   
      

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