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|    Daryl Stout to All    |
|    ARRL Propagation Bulletin    |
|    04 Mar 22 08:26:14    |
      TZUTC: -0600       MSGID: 128.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26875806       PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/4f11e1dff Mar 2 2022 MSC 1929       TID: SBBSecho 3.15-Win32 master/4f11e1dff Mar 2 2022 MSC 1929       BBSID: TBOLT       CHRS: ASCII 1              SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009       ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA              ZCZC AP09       QST de W1AW        Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009       From Tad Cook, K7RA       Seattle, WA March 4, 2022       To all radio amateurs              SB PROP ARL ARLP009       ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA              Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through       March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to       44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.              Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index       declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.              Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106,       104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on       March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March       21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99       and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on       April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9.              Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on       March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March       16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5       and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on       March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on       April 7-9.              Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH:              "The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might       have surprised us if it were not for the information about the       increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside       sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft,       starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft       recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the       late hours of 15 February.              "One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a       better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have       recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity       observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising       several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we       experienced only occasional eruptions of class C.              "The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and       attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for       shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was       mainly due to seasonal changes."              Here is a link to see a new telescope:              https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6              Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency:              https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter              Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:              "Wow!              "10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing       today!              "I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first       checked band conditions.              "Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using       FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC,       VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan.              "Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again,       WOW!"              See stunning loops of plasma:              https://bit.ly/35OpX0V              Here is information about the termination event:              https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU              This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles       and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced       the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived:              https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ              If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,       please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .              For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see       http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information       Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For       an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see       http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.              An archive of past propagation bulletins is at       http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good       information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.              Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL       bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .              Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22,       22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3,       96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5.       Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a       mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3,       with a mean of 5.6.       NNNN       /EX       --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32        * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)       SEEN-BY: 1/123 15/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 120/340 123/10 131 129/330       SEEN-BY: 129/331 153/7715 154/1 10 30 40 50 700 203/0 218/700 220/90       SEEN-BY: 221/6 226/18 30 227/114 229/110 206 317 424 426 428 664 700       SEEN-BY: 240/5832 266/512 282/1038 301/1 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/200       SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 2320/0 33 105 195 304 3634/12       PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 301/1 229/426           |
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