TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 125.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26827734   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/2d3b97333 Feb 15 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/2d3b97333 Feb 15 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008   
   ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP08   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 28, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP008   
   ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar   
   activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun   
   every day.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week   
   to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily   
   solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On   
   Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to   
   23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average   
   daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27,   
   105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March   
   5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on   
   March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March   
   23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on   
   March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on   
   February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on   
   March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18,   
   then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then   
   12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH.   
      
   "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight   
   chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density   
   fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor   
   storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular   
   occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent   
   gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation   
   conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with   
   seasonal changes with the approaching Spring Equinox."   
      
   I regularly check propagation on 10-meters using FT8, low power, and   
   a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on   
   the second floor of my home.   
      
   Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html   
   concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South   
   Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. 24   
   hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA,   
   with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in   
   Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but   
   this being 10-meters, soon the coverage changed and I saw coverage   
   across the East Coast.   
      
   Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter   
   wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the   
   United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe,   
   at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35td.   
      
   On IZ1CRR's QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not   
   to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.   
      
   Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info   
   to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local   
   area by searching for signals received from your grid square over   
   the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in   
   your grid square active at the time.   
      
   In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local   
   stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for   
   stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW   
   or SSB.   
      
   Solar eruption in the news:   
      
   https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/   
      
   Here is an article about instability of sunspots:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4   
      
   Here is a blog post about recent solar events:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa   
      
   Details on the new Maui solar telescope:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb   
      
   Here is the February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51,   
   49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7,   
   93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with   
   a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and   
   4, with a mean of 7.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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