TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 119.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26752ca5   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/2d3b97333 Feb 15 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/2d3b97333 Feb 15 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP07   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 18, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Although solar activity was generally lower this week, new sunspots   
   appeared. A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on   
   February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16,   
   when the daily sunspot number rose to 111, the highest value for   
   this reporting week and well above the weekly average, which was   
   75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17   
   another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number   
   declined from 111 to 103.   
      
   The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when   
   sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no   
   sunspots at all.   
      
   On Thursday night (February 17) the Daily Sun image on   
   Spaceweather.com showed seven sunspot groups, the whole Earth facing   
   side of the Sun peppered with spots.   
      
   Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily   
   planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle   
   latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.   
      
   Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate   
   with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better   
   propagation at higher frequencies. 64 years ago, sunspot numbers   
   were so high that hams saw worldwide around the clock propagation on   
   the 10 meter band. Sunspot numbers were never so high before or   
   since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams   
   thought it would always be like that. It never was.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from   
   February 16-17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18-19, 98 on   
   February 20, 102 on February 21-23, 105 on February 24, 108 on   
   February 25-27, 110 on February 28, 115 on March 1-2, 112 and 110 on   
   March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13,   
   100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March   
   20-22, 108 on March 23-26 and 110 on March 27.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18-19, then 18, 15 and   
   12 on February 20-22, then 10, 8 and 10 on February 23-25, 15 and 10   
   on February 24-25, 5 on February 26 to March 2, then 12, 15, 10 and   
   8 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13,   
   5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 15, 18 and 10 on March 19-24, and 5   
   on March 25-29.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere, February 10, 2022, from OK1HH:   
      
   "Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence   
   of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the Sun was   
   greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of   
   the solar disk, which do not affect the Earth's ionosphere.   
      
   "We observed exceptionally bad conditions of ionospheric propagation   
   in the bands of 80 meters and especially 160 meters on the night of   
   February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar   
   radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of   
   the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The   
   improvement started in the morning of February 15, beginning from   
   the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the Sun   
   again.   
      
   "Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days,   
   reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of   
   the Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only   
   slightly again on 20-21 and 24-25 February (according to other   
   sources on February 22-24), causing only the usual fluctuations in   
   the level of propagation conditions."   
      
   NN4X reported on February 16:   
      
   "I was a little late to the party on 10m, having started checking   
   propagation on 12m first.   
      
   "Conditions were excellent this morning, easily the best 10m Long   
   Path opening I've ever seen.   
      
   "I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations this morning:   
      
   "BF7IEJ (1304 UTC)   
   YC9AUB (1306 UTC)   
   YC1THS (1319 UTC)   
   YC7UDD (1346 UTC)   
   VK3EW (1419 UTC)   
   JK1OZS (1344 UTC)   
   VR2CH (1307 UTC)   
   VR2XYL (1305 UTC)   
   VR2VAZ (1339 UTC)   
      
   "I also worked VR2CH on 10m LP on Tuesday, 02/15/2022.  Great fun!   
      
   "I wanted to pass this along because I found it so interesting.   
   While monitoring 12m FT8 around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the   
   antenna pointed 90 degrees, looking for African stations, I noticed   
   YB0DJ decode.   
      
   "I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've   
   never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset.   
   Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening   
   (note that the daylight/nighttime shading is for the time I ran the   
   search).   
      
   "From K7RA, he sent an image of the map, which I have no way of   
   presenting here.   
      
   "YB0DJ 2/16/2022 1905 UTC 24.915 MHz"   
      
   N0JK reported on February 17:   
      
   "A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC.   
      
   "I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC. The only Es   
   station worked on 6 Meters. Then on 17 Meters worked KC5LT (EM86) at   
   0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in the month of   
   February. 73, Jon, N0JK, EM28, Kansas."   
      
   Check out this video about a ViewProp, a promising new propagation   
   analysis tool: https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk .   
      
   There is also an email list for it: https://groups.io/g/viewprop .   
   Thanks to ARRL Contest Update for the information.   
      
   A reader named Neil J. shared this:   
      
   https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/   
      
   A new robotic system at Sunspot, New Mexico observatory:   
      
   https://bit.ly/33v3x4i   
      
   This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.   
   Details can be found here:   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16, 2022 were 78, 86, 54,   
   53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. 10.7 cm flux was 118,   
   113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with   
   a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and   
   6, with a mean of 8.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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