TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 114.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 266bef34   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/479c98828 Feb  9 2022 MSC 1929   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/479c98828 Feb  9 2022 MSC 1929   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP06   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 11, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Three new sunspot groups appeared this week, on February 3, 6 and 8.   
   Average daily sunspot number rose slightly from 81.3 last week to   
   83.9 in this reporting week, February 3-9.   
      
   Average daily solar flux increased from 123.1 to 126, also a modest   
   change.   
      
   Solar flares and geomagnetic storms through the week raised the   
   average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle   
   latitude A index, measured at one location in Virginia, went from   
   6.4 to 9.6.   
      
   At 0523 UTC on February 11 the Australian Space Forecast Centre   
   issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "A recurrent coronal hole   
   is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible   
   minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."   
      
   A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of the low earth   
   orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially   
   robust. But from February 3-4, the high latitude college A index   
   measured near Fairbanks, Alaska was 48 and 61, respectively, a level   
   that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.   
      
   NN4X sent this on the LEO satellites loss:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3GCIQkd   
      
   Normally we think of geo-storms as a negative event regarding HF   
   propagation, but not always, as sometimes there is propagation via   
   bouncing signals off the aurora.   
      
   K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting   
   titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW.   
      
   "Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora sounding. Point 'em North   
   boys."   
      
   "All aurora sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds   
   of auroral propagation, and then advice to point your antenna north   
   to propagate signals via the aurora.   
      
   W7YED responded:   
      
   "Yeah, I saw 2 SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10m FT8. One   
   worked an XE, lasted about 5 minutes then went away. And now back to   
   the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are   
   looking up on 10!"   
      
   So far in the year 2022 sunspots were visible on every day. Last   
   year 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless,   
   according to spaceweather.com.   
      
   Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on   
   February 11-12, 112 on February 13-14, 110 on February 15-16, 112 on   
   February 17, 115 on February 18-19, 118 on February 20, 120 on   
   February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 120 on February 26 through   
   March 4, then 115 and 122 on March 5-6, 120 on March 7-9, 110 on   
   March 10-11, 115 on March 12-18, 118 on March 19, and 120 on March   
   20-22.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22 and 25 on February 11-14,   
   then 20, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15-19, then 5, 10, 8, 5, 8 and   
   12 on February 20-25, then 8 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 to   
   March 2, then 12, 10, 15 and 10 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-11, then   
   25 and 20 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on   
   March 16-18.   
      
   From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936   
   on January 29, accompanied by LDE (long-running event) see:   
   https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary, which   
   caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink   
   satellites launched into low Earth orbit from the Kennedy Space   
   Center in Florida on February 3.   
      
   "As a result, 40 of them did not get into the planned orbit and then   
   burned in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch   
   the Falcon 9 is $30 million dollars, one satellite is half a million   
   dollars, total damage to Elon Musk costs $50 million dollars.   
      
   "Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models   
   expected. More accurate predictions of further developments are   
   complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving   
   active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason, too, we   
   cannot rely on the twenty-seven-day periodicity, which is otherwise   
   a good tool for compiling forecasts.   
      
   "If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major   
   disturbance on 13-14 February. The beginning of calm can be expected   
   since February 16 and quiet days since February 19. Solar flux   
   should not fall below 100 or rise too high above 130."   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, with a great update, all 93 minutes:   
      
   https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg   
      
   N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:   
      
   "I was active in the VT, MN, and BC QSO Parties this past weekend.   
   Conditions were excellent to MN on 20M with loud signals from 1500   
   UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles   
   were very good copy, many quite loud on 20M. 40M suffered from D/E   
   layer absorption with almost all MN signals below my noise level   
   from 1700-2030 UTC. 80M was open well before MN sunset with workable   
   signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC.   
      
   "15 and even 10 M were open to British Columbia both weekend days.   
   The peak of 10M propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days with   
   Saturday being better on both 20 and 15M. Several BC 10M signals   
   were over S9 on Saturday. There were many USA Rocky Mountain area   
   and west coast signals on the band as well. 20M conditions were   
   excellent Saturday from 1600-2400 UTC. 15/10 were slow to open   
   Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.   
      
   "Propagation to VT was about as expected, some loud signals   
   0000-0030 UTC on 40M, VT stations on 75/80M were mostly loud. 160M   
   signals were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening   
   like last year, 20M was open on backscatter only and W1JXN was   
   worked on 15M CW backscatter just above the noise.   
      
   "Sunday morning, the 6th there was a good opening to southern Europe   
   on 10M. I had a SSB run from 1515-1550 UTC working Croatia,   
   Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many   
   signals were over S9. 12M in the past few days has been open to at   
   least southern EU daily.   
      
   "Last Friday, February 4, 10M was wide open to New Caledonia from   
   2130-2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX   
   on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western USA."   
      
   Images of recent sunspot regions:   
      
   http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591   
      
   Study offers explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly   
   referred to as "Solar Flames":   
      
   https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9, 2022 were 84, 87, 91, 83,   
   78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. 10.7 cm flux was 126.5, 129.6,   
   125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of   
   14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with   
   a mean of 9.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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