TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 111.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2666be38   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/005633b1f Jan 17 2022 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/005633b1f Jan 17 2022 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP05   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 7, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Our Sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily   
   sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to   
   81.3 in the current reporting week, January 27 to February 2.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from   
   8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at   
   6.4.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130 and 125 on   
   February 4-6, 120 on February 7-10, 128 on February 11-12, 125 on   
   February 13-14, 120 on February 15-17, 128 on February 18-21, 125 on   
   February 22-25, 128 on February 26, 132 on February 27-28, 135 on   
   March 1-3, 125 on March 4-7, 128 on March 8-11 and 125 on March   
   12-13.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18 and 10 February 4-7, 5 on   
   February 8-10, 8 on February 11, 5 on February 12-16, then 10, 12, 8   
   and 5 on February 17-20, then 10, 8, 5 and 8 on February 21-24, then   
   12, 8, 5 and 8 on February 25-28, then 10, 5 and 5 on March 1-3, 20   
   and 12 on March 4-5, 5 on March 6-8, then 12 and 8 on March 9-10,   
   then 5 on March 11-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on March 16-18.   
      
   From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere, February 3, 2022   
      
   "The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to SSN   
   of 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic   
   length in past solar rotations, showed how unreliable the   
   twenty-seven-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for the   
   predictions can be.   
      
   "The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29th was also a surprise,   
   which because of the magnetic configuration we did not expect. On   
   the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which   
   triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar   
   wind and an increase in the Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A   
   major storm was expected on February 2nd. However, it arrived a day   
   later, on 3rd, including major changes in the parameters of the   
   Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase around noon   
   UTC."   
      
   Interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update, thanks to K9LA and K1HTV:   
      
   https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle   
      
   Also, a comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in   
   Virginia, via Spaceweather.com. He thinks it may be too early to   
   expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.   
      
   This graph shows why Turner is skeptical:   
      
   https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png   
      
   "Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old   
   Solar Cycle 24 (SC24).   
      
   "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed   
   line) and overlaid them on SC25," says Turner. "They're an almost   
   perfect match."   
      
   "This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the   
   weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a   
   strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will   
   likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not   
   enough to guarantee a strong cycle."   
      
   David Moore shared this article about a big solar event over 9,000   
   years ago discovered via ice core analysis:   
      
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm   
      
   Update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 27 through February 2, 2022 were 85, 77,   
   74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. 10.7 cm flux was   
   107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of   
   123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and   
   12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3,   
   10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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   SEEN-BY: 266/512 282/1038 301/1 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/200 460/58   
   SEEN-BY: 633/280 712/848 2320/33 105   
   PATH: 2320/33 229/426