TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 104.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 265065dc   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/005633b1f Jan 17 2022 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/005633b1f Jan 17 2022 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP03   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 21, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. Average daily   
   sunspot number was 52 points higher, rising from 42.4 to 94.4. The   
   sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday.   
      
   Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on   
   Sunday. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and   
   average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3. On January 20   
   the daily solar flux dipped to 99.3, the first daily noon reading   
   below 100 since January 6.   
      
   As reported by Spaceweather.com, Sunspot AR2929 erupted at 1744 UTC   
   on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of   
   X-rays causing a shortwave radio blackout.   
      
   See https://bit.ly/3rC6W9t . Another eruption occurred on January   
   20, producing this blackout: https://bit.ly/3AfyLby .   
      
   I observed the January 18 blackout when I was using FT8 on 10 meters   
   to observe propagation using pskreporter.info. Just before the blast   
   I could see my 10 meter signal reported by stations on the East   
   Coast, and suddenly I saw no reports. The surprising part was during   
   that period no local stations reported copying my signal either.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 95, 93 and 91 on January 21-23, 89 on   
   January 24-26, then 92 on January 27-28, 90 on January 29-30, 95 on   
   January 31, then 100 and 105 on February 1-2, 110 on February 3-10,   
   115 on February 11-14, then 110, 108 and 106 on February 15-17, 102   
   on February 18-21, 100 on February 22-23, 95 on February 24, and 90   
   on February 25-26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 12 on January 21-23, 8 on   
   January 24-26, 5 on January 27, 10 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31   
   through February 3, then 15 and 10 on February 4-5, 5 on February   
   6-9, then 12, 15, 12, 18 and 10 on February 10-14, 5 on February   
   15-19, 8 on February 20-22, 5 on February 23, and 10 on February   
   24-26, then back to 5 through the end of the month.   
      
   The predicted values summarized above are updated daily at:   
      
   https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt   
      
   Daily solar flux from Penticton, British Columbia:   
      
   https://bit.ly/33XlFnj   
      
   The local noon reading is the official SFN for the day.   
      
   Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere-January 20, 2022, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "We have been able to observe four to eight groups of sunspots on   
   the Sun over the past seven days. They are now mostly in the western   
   hemisphere, therefore solar flux has been declining.   
      
   "And suddenly a bang!   
      
   "This morning (January 20) we could observe a nice moderate-sized   
   solar flare near the northwestern limb of the solar disc. With a   
   maximum at 0601 UTC, it caused the Dellinger effect in the Indian   
   Ocean region for tens of minutes, followed by type II and IV solar   
   radio noise bursts, which confirmed the outburst of CME (but plasma   
   cloud likely will miss Earth).   
      
   "Now we are facing a gradual decline in solar activity. Larger   
   geomagnetic disturbances are expected in early February again. Their   
   more accurate prediction will depend on the further development of   
   the sunspot groups that are now located around the eastern limb of   
   the solar disk."   
      
   Here is a geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January   
   21-January 27, 2022:   
      
   "Quiet: Jan 22-23   
   Unsettled: Jan 21-22, 25-27   
   Active: Jan 24-25   
   Minor storm: Jan 24   
   Major storm: 0   
   Severe storm: 0   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity summary:   
      
   "After the last active and minor storm events (at the Budkov   
   observatory, minor storm event have been recorded at January 14, 16,   
   18 and 19) we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled   
   (January 21-22) or quiet to unsettled (January 22-23) level. Then,   
   starting at Monday, January 24, other active or minor storm events   
   are possible. At the end of current forecast period, we expect quiet   
   to unsettled conditions to return.   
      
   "Tomas Bayer   
   RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague   
   Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV)."   
      
   Interesting sunspot plot:   
      
   https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot   
      
   KA3JAW in Easton, PA (FN20jq) reported:   
      
   "On Saturday, January 15, 2022 from 1346-1426 UTC started hearing   
   multiple central Mediterranean Sea stations, Italy, Greece, with   
   others along the Adriatic Sea on SSB mode on the 11 meter band.   
   Signal strengths deviated from fairly good to moderately strong with   
   moderate QSB. Average distances reached up to 4X sporadic-E ranges   
   at 4750 miles. This was the time frame when the Global D-Region   
   Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) maximum absorption attenuation   
   reached up to 16 MHz. For the rest of the day Es conditions were   
   dampened with higher amounts of sky wave background noise."   
      
   K7HBN (CN87) reported on January 14 via Western Washington DX Club:   
      
   "Today's opening on 28 MHz was unique indeed. The opening was   
   obviously enhanced by the solar wind stream from the coronal hole.   
   What was the strangest, I heard stations from Arizona with a strong   
   Au component on their signals calling CQ on the same frequency as   
   strong OH, SM and LA stations. I can't remember any such propagation   
   in my entire Ham Radio life, and I've orbited the Sun a few times."   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports, "Our Sun is getting busy":   
      
   https://youtu.be/2eXhwDHYeeY   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.    
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 13 through 19, 2022 were 111, 112, 120,   
   103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. 10.7 cm flux was 105.5,   
   110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23,   
   with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6,   
   12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 15/0 18/0 90/1 105/81 106/201 116/116 120/340 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/10 25 40 131 180 200 755 129/330 135/300 138/146 153/7715   
   SEEN-BY: 154/10 30 40 50 700 220/80 90 222/2 226/18 30 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/206 317 424 426 664 700 240/1120 5832 250/1 266/512 275/100   
   SEEN-BY: 275/1000 282/1038 299/6 301/1 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/11   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 633/280 640/1321 712/848 2320/0 33 105 195   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/304 3634/0 12 15 27 50 119   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 153/7715 229/426