TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 97.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26473990   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19c-Win32 master/eb8114bd1 Jan 11 2022 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/eb8114bd1 Jan 11 2022 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 14, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC   
   on January 13:   
      
   "A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region   
   is expected to reach geoeffective location on the solar disk on late   
   UT day 15 January. As a result, unsettled to active conditions with   
   a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days."   
      
   Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another on January   
   12, then three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers   
   rose 6 points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux   
   increased from 91.4 to 101.6.   
      
   Another positive sign yesterday, January 13, the daily sunspot   
   number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the   
   highest number since Christmas Day 2021.   
      
   Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily   
   planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily   
   middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.   
      
   Spaceweather.com reported the new solar cycle is performing better   
   than expected, and used this illustration:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI   
      
   They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15   
   straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021   
   was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by   
   the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.   
      
   Higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm   
   caused by co-rotating interaction regions. See   
   https://bit.ly/3KahWmI   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120   
   on January 21-24 and again around mid-February. Predicted values are   
   106, 108 and 110 on January 14-16, 108 on January 17-18, 106 and 104   
   on January 19-20, 120 on January 21-24, 110 on January 25, 100 on   
   January 26-27, then 95 and 90 on January 28-29, 85 on January 30   
   through February 1, 95 and 105 on February 2-3, 100 on February 4-5,   
   102 on February 6-7, 105 on February 8, 110 on February 9-10, 115 on   
   February 11-12, and 120 on February 13-20. Flux values are expected   
   to dip below 90 after February 25.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14, then 14, 24, 12 and   
   8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-22, 10 on January 23, 8 on   
   January 24-26, 5 on January 27, 10 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31   
   through February 3, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 4-6, 5 on February   
   7-11, then 12, 10 and 8 on February 12-14, then 5 on February 15-18,   
   10 on February 19, and 8 on February 20-21.   
      
   From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere-January 13, 2022.   
      
   "The current view of the distribution of active areas in the Sun   
   seems at first glance to be relatively simple. Current activity   
   should keep solar flux above 100 SFU. Other active areas beyond the   
   eastern limb of the solar disk, which we see thanks to the Stereo   
   satellite, should increase it somewhere to about 120 SFU soon. The   
   key feature for the influence towards the Earth is the prominence of   
   the southern polar coronal hole, which will be responsible for   
   increasing of the enhanced speed of the solar wind and the activity   
   of the Earth's magnetic field in the coming days. This is a   
   recurring event that will take place around January 16. After that   
   we expect a decline in solar activity at the end of January and the   
   beginning of February."   
      
   N2CG wrote:   
      
   "On Monday January 10th 2022 around 1600 UTC I went on the DXMAPS   
   Website and clicked on the '50 MHz' tab and to my surprise found   
   that there was a very strong in progress 6m FT8 opening between   
   Florida and my NNJ FN20 QTH and the PA/NY/CT and Southern New   
   England area. Over the next 2-1/2 hours I casually made 6m FT8   
   contacts with 12 Florida stations in addition to C6ACB in FL15 and   
   CM2RSV in EL83. The band continued to be open from morning into the   
   afternoon and evening and finally closed at around midnight local   
   time, 0500 UTC.   
      
   "The next day January 11 6m again opened up on FT8 mode although not   
   as concentrated to Florida from my QTH. I worked stations on 6m FT8   
   in FL, GA, SC, OK and AR. At 2022 UTC I worked XE2X in EL06 on 6m   
   FT8."   
      
   K9LA commented on the question from W1VTP about poor local 75 meter   
   propagation in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin.   
      
   "I'm active in the Indiana CW traffic net (QIN) and the Ninth Region   
   Net (9RN). We can also have problems on 80m in the winter months -   
   especially when we're still near solar minimum. Our Plan B is to   
   move to 160m, and that always works.   
      
   "Yes, it's due to the nighttime F2 region electron density being too   
   low to support high angle signals. I wrote about this in my April   
   2020 Monthly Feature on my website."   
      
   See https://bit.ly/3Fr4B66 for more details.   
      
   Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/AEhz4zfxre4   
      
   Local newspaper article about solar cycle progress with a nice solar   
   image:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3K8HK2O   
      
   Even Forbes has a solar update:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3qp0Olo   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.    
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12, 2022 were 35, 38, 31, 36,   
   38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.7, 107.3,   
   102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of   
   6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a   
   mean of 4.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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