TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 88.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 263db94a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19a-Win32 master/4c726caf5 Jan  1 2022 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/4c726caf5 Jan  1 2022 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
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   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP01   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 7, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP001   
   ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity was substantially lower this week, but new sunspot   
   groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5.   
   Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while   
   average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.   
      
   Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of   
   flares and CMEs, with the average daily planetary A index changing   
   from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7 cm flux values   
   peaking at 120 on January 16-24, and again at 120 in mid-February.   
      
   The daily predicted values are 94 on January 7, 96 on January 8-14,   
   115 on January 15, 120 on January 16-24, 110 on January 25, 100 on   
   January 26-27, 95 and 90 on January 28-29, 88 on January 30-31, 85   
   on February 1-5, then 90, 95 and 100 on February 6-8, 115 on   
   February 9-11, and 120 on February 12-20.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 7-8, then 12, 14 and   
   8 on January 9-11, 5 on January 12-14, then 8 and 12 on January   
   15-16, back to 8 again on January 17-18, 5 on January 19-22, 10 on   
   January 23, 8 on January 24-26, 5 and 10 on January 27-28, 8 on   
   January 29-30, 5 on January 31 through February 6, 10 on February   
   7-8, 5 on February 9-10, then 8, 12, 8 and 8 on February 11-14.   
      
   From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere-January 6, 2022.   
      
   "Free continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity predictions,   
   published between 1978-2022.   
      
   "Solar activity is declining as expected. The last of the chain of   
   active areas on the Sun, which gradually set behind the western limb   
   of the solar disk, still contributed to the increase in the speed of   
   the solar wind in the first three days of the new year.   
      
   "The activity of the Earth's magnetic field has decreased since   
   January 4, and MUF values are gradually declining.   
      
   "The solar coronal holes, which now extend along the southern half   
   of the central meridian, should contribute to a slight increase in   
   the speed of the solar wind in the coming days.   
      
   "Best news in conclusion: we expect a recurrent increase in solar   
   activity around mid-January.   
      
   "Note: The website https://www.solarham.net/ is long-term valued not   
   only by radio amateurs but also by professional astronomers."   
      
   I frequently check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ to peer over the   
   Sun's horizon to see what might emerge over the next few days. I   
   look for those messy white splotches, which may indicate magnetic   
   complexity and perhaps a returning or emerging sunspot.   
      
   Although the image is constantly updated (every few minutes)   
   presenting views of the Sun in real time, in October 2014   
   communication with the STEREO-B spacecraft was lost, so we no longer   
   see a full 360 degree image of the Sun.   
      
   https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/behind_status.shtml   
      
   I've been wondering how much it would cost to replace the failed   
   spacecraft, and if there might be any plans to do so. I checked with   
   someone at NASA, and received this interesting response:   
      
   "I don't know exactly how much it would cost to build a single   
   spacecraft to replace STEREO-B at this point.   
      
   "The two spacecraft combined (A and B) were about $550 million back   
   before STEREO launch in 2006.   
      
   "There is no plan to replace STEREO-B, but based on the success of   
   the STEREO mission there are a lot of people proposing missions   
   observing the Sun and solar wind from spacecraft at the relatively   
   stable Sun-Earth L4 and/or L5 points or else other spacecraft   
   orbiting the Sun. We will see if any of them are funded. The exact   
   cost would depend on the details of the mission."   
      
   L4 and L5 refer to Lagrange points:   
      
   https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/faq/88/what-are-lagrange-points/   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK in Lawrence, Kansas wrote:   
      
   "January 3 was a big day for the VHF bands.   
      
   "The Quadrantid Meteor shower appeared to peak around 2030 UTC   
   January 3 as per the NASA prediction.   
      
   "I logged N0LL/P DM89 (353 miles) at 1950 UTC on 50.260 MHz MSK144.   
   Then KE8FD (EN80, 779 miles) also 50.260 MSK144. Logged KA9CFD   
   (EN40, 993 miles) on FT8, too far for ground wave. May have been   
   meteor enhanced.   
      
   "That evening there was a strong sporadic-E opening across North   
   America. I had a 6 Meter PSK flag from ZF1EJ (EK99, 1573 miles) at   
   2357 UTC. Later worked N7BHC in rare EL15 (829 miles, Brownsville,   
   Texas) at 0246 UTC.   
      
   "73, Jon N0JK"   
      
   Jon writes the monthly "World Above 50 MHz" column in QST, and   
   operates from EM17 grid square:   
      
   https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz   
      
   More good 10 meter news from Greg Mitchell, KB1AWM, in Goose Creek,   
   South Carolina:   
      
   "Just wanted to report a very favorable afternoon on 10 meters   
   12/27. Worked 4 VK stations back to back from South Carolina   
   starting about 3:30pm local time. Antenna was a simple long wire.   
   VK4ZC started the run; he copied me at a -06 and I gave him a -15.   
   VK3BOX, VK2HFP and VK3KJ followed, with the last one issuing me a   
   +04. Great Christmas surprise on 10M. Over the past several years, I   
   have never worked that easily into the south Pacific on 10."   
      
   On January 6, WJ5O posted to an HF beacon email list:   
      
   "It's mid-morning in Southern Alabama and I'm hearing beacon signals   
   a bit earlier than usual.   
      
   "1549-1559 UTC, 6 January 2022, I can hear/identify five 10 meter beacon   
   signals into EM71as.   
      
   "28.2082  AK2F    RANDOLPH, NJ     885 miles   
   28.234   K4DP    COVINGTON, VA    534 miles   
   28.236   W8YT    MARTINSBURG, WV  691 miles   
   28.270   WA3NFV  FAIR HILL, PA    838 miles   
   28.296   W3APL   LAUREL, MD       733 miles"   
      
   Al, W1VTP in New Hampshire wrote on January 5:   
      
   "Don't know if you are interested in 75m local comm or not but last   
   night was the pits. We did all our communications using the   
   Washington SDR receiver and it was mostly successful. Point to point   
   comm useless."   
      
   I think what happened was the ionosphere directly above his area was   
   not dense enough to reflect 75 meter signals. We may think of local   
   75 meter signals depending on ground wave propagation, but in fact   
   it may depend on high angle signals reflected from the overhead   
   ionosphere.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.    
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 30, 2021 through January 5, 2022 were   
   77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. 10.7 cm flux   
   was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with   
   a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3,   
   with a mean of 6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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