TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 80.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 2638c3cf   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19a-Win32 master/4c726caf5 Jan  1 2022 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/4c726caf5 Jan  1 2022 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP53   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53  ARLP053   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 3, 2022   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity persisted this week, although the numbers were a   
   little lower.  Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to   
   110.1.  Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to   
   124.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average   
   middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.   
      
   New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26 and 28.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130   
   on January 18 and 19, and the numbers are 100 on December 31, 2021,   
   100 on January 1 and 2, 2022, 98, 95 and 95 on January 3 to 5, then   
   90, 92 and 100 on January 6 to 8, 105 and 110 on January 9 and 10,   
   115 on January 11 to 13, 118 on January 14 and 15, then 122 and 128   
   on January 16 and 17, 130 on January 18 and 19, then 128, 125 and   
   120 on January 20 to 22, 125 on January 23 and 24, 122 on January   
   25, 120 on January 26 and 27, then 115, 110, 100 and 95 on January   
   28 to 31, 90 on February 1 and 2, 92 and 100 on February 3 and 4,   
   105 and 110 on February 5 and 6, and 115 on February 7 to 9.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on December 31, 2021   
   through January 3, 2022, 5 on January 4 to 10, 10 on January 11 and   
   12, 5 on January 13 and 14, then 8 and 12 on January 15 and 16, 8 on   
   January 17 and 18, 5 on January 19 to 22, then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on   
   January 23 to 26, then 5 on January 27 through February 6 and 8 on   
   February 7 and 8.   
      
   From OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere, December 30, 2021 (Continuation of Earth's magnetic   
   field activity predictions, published between 1978 and 2021.)   
      
   Solar activity was a little more vivid than we expected.  Both spot   
   and flare activity predominated in the southern hemisphere, while   
   small coronal holes were observed mostly in the northern hemisphere.   
      
   This corresponded well with the irregular occurrences of the   
   slightly increased activity of the Earth's magnetic field, thus also   
   the irregularities in the daily course of the ionosphere parameters.   
      
   The surprise came after the increase in proton density in the solar   
   wind in the evening of December 29, where only a relatively small   
   increase in its group velocity was observed.  The result in the   
   ionosphere was higher critical frequencies in the F2 layer in the   
   middle of the night and an increased occurrence of scattering and   
   extended reflections, especially on the morning of December 30."   
      
   Mike, KM0T in NW Iowa (EM13) wrote early on December 29 about 6   
   meters:   
      
   "Watching spaceweather.com for a few days, they predicted a few M   
   class flares hitting, but it seemed to have missed us.  But I also   
   noticed that the flux was around 140 and knowing that a slight   
   disturbance could skew things the right way, I was somewhat aware of   
   things.   
      
   Then I saw TEP-Chordal stuff happening on the 26th to ZL/VK, which   
   did not really surprise me thinking we got a few glancing blows from   
   the flares perhaps.  However did not see many if any Midwest reports   
   so I sort of ignored it.   
      
   The next day I saw it again, but was busy.  Then saw an email from   
   W7XU (Arliss in South Dakota) saying ZL was in.  Sure enough turned   
   the radio on and got decodes from ZL7DX.  It appeared that there was   
   an Es link in the Midwest to DM43 / XE area that was getting into   
   the TEP-Chordal hops.  I believe ZL7 was working a few XEs on FT8,   
   so I found one decode and moved my tx up in freq, started calling   
   -17 report.  He came back a few minutes later with -20 and then my   
   RR73 was answered 73 in same sequence. It all happened very quickly.   
   Then he was gone.   
      
   Thought it was My first ZL, then I found out it was ZL7.   
      
   Not sure anyone this far north and east worked him.  The stacked 6   
   Ele 6M yagis were as low as possible, due to recent wind storms.   
   Bottom one is about 24 feet, then about 20 feet higher on the mast   
   for the upper one.  1.5KW, no preamp, Flex-6600."   
      
   Related to this, see an article by K9LA:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3pGyScz   
      
   Grant, KZ1W wrote on the Western Washington DX Club email list on   
   December 29:   
      
   "N6MZ and I were separately working EU stations a couple of weeks   
   ago on 12m well before local sunrise.  Clearly, the short path   
   wasn't open, and we were mystified how that can happen.   
      
   This week I am working EU on 15m, well before sunrise.   
      
   Both bands are very limited on short path with sunrise here and   
   sunset in EU so close together at this time of year.   
      
   I found a possible explanation in K9LA's Propagation book (CQ): When   
   US amateurs point antennas at central Africa, towards the magnetic   
   equator, the higher level of ionization there often causes signals   
   to be scattered.  If EU points south to SW a portion of their   
   signals will be side scattered west.  The path is optimized roughly   
   between 1200 and 1500 UTC and some seeking of best azimuth is worth   
   trying.  Should work on 10m if EU is there.   
      
   With QRO, a beam, and FT8 there is enough gain to make it work.  Try   
   it if the 40m FT8 mess is too annoying.  But I did work A71AE Qatar   
   LP 40m this week for a new band and a Marathon count.   
      
   I've used NE aimed scattering paths on 10m open to the Caribbean,   
   but not to EU.  Different mechanisms I think.  Learn something new   
   all the time."   
      
   AG7N responded:   
      
   "20 has been excellent to EU about 8 to 9 a.m. local.  I've been   
   working my good friend DF9LJ who lives close to the Danish border on   
   CW and SSB at 599/59 the last few days.  The band closes about 9:15   
   a.m.  local.  On 40 EU has been coming in at 7:30 AM local (1530   
   UTC) but I've been receiving the signals LP and SP simultaneously   
   which makes copy difficult at moderate CW speeds."   
      
   W0PB wrote:   
      
   "On December 19 between 2032 UTC to 2035 UTC on 10 meter CW, I   
   worked Tord, SM3EVR and Per SM2LIY in that order.  Both were 579-589   
   here in West Des Moines, IA.  They both gave me a 559 report from my   
   100W and ground-mounted vertical.  They disappeared ten minutes   
   later."   
      
   N0JK wrote:   
      
   "Some sporadic-E December 26 from Kansas to N5BO EM60 Florida.  He   
   received me on 50.313 MHz FT8 at -21 dB. Stations along the Gulf   
   Coast and Texas worked New Zealand on 6 Meter FT8 with Es links to   
   TEP."   
      
   Jeff, N8II wrote from West Virginia on December 30:   
      
   "I worked MI0SAI and EI9HX with S9 signals on 12M SSB about 1545 UTC   
   today.  VE2CSI in CQ zone 2 (NE QC) was S9+25 db on 10M CW via Es at   
   the same time.  The DxMaps MUF was above 30MHz in almost all   
   directions from FM19 at 1700 UTC, but I only worked one station in   
   San Jacinto county, TX plus Reno, NV on either F2 or double hop Es.   
      
   Sunday through Wednesday I worked EU on 10M with Tuesday being the   
   best day.  Two stations in Scotland were S9 around 1400 UTC Tuesday   
   including Ian, MM0TFU who always seems to be there when band is   
   open.  He now runs 400W to a 5 el yagi.   
      
   Also, I worked MI0SAI and an OE6 on 20M SSB at 2130 UTC Wednesday   
   about 25 minutes before my sunset and many hours past EU sunset with   
   possible Es aid."   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 23 through 29, 2021 were 143, 145, 117,   
   95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1.  10.7 cm flux was 129.8,   
   126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a   
   mean of 6.4.  Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5,   
   with a mean of 4.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 123 14/0 15/0 18/0 19/33 90/1 105/81 116/116 120/340   
   SEEN-BY: 123/0 10 25 40 131 180 200 755 135/300 138/146 153/250 7715   
   SEEN-BY: 154/10 30 40 50 700 220/80 90 222/2 226/18 30 227/114 229/424   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 664 700 240/1120 5832 249/206 317 250/1 266/512 275/100   
   SEEN-BY: 282/1038 299/6 301/1 317/3 320/219 322/757 342/11 200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 633/280 640/1321 712/848 2320/0 33 105 195 304 3634/0 12   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/15 27 50 119   
   PATH: 2320/33 105 154/10 3634/12 153/7715 229/426