TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 77.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26307b41   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19a-Win32 master/4ce690049 Dec 24 2021 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/4ce690049 Dec 24 2021 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 28, 2021   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air   
   activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10 Meter Contest   
   were held a week later!   
      
   Average daily sunspot number jumped 100 points, from 24.4 last week   
   to 124.4 in the current reporting week, December 16-22.   
      
   Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.   
      
   Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle   
   latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.   
      
   It was great looking at Spaceweather.com every day and seeing the   
   Sun covered with spots.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with   
   daily solar flux over 100 until the end of the year, then rising   
   above 100 on January 16-22, 2022. But the outlook issued on   
   Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued the   
   previous day.   
      
   Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115 and 113 on December   
   24-28, then 110 on December 29-30, 85 on December 31, 2021, then 83,   
   81, 80 and 81 on January 1-4, 2022,  82 on January 5-6, then 83, 86,   
   90 and 92 on January 7-10, 95 on January 11-12, 96 on January 13-15,   
   then jumping up to 115 on January 16-17, then 114, 111 and 110 on   
   January 18-20, 108, 102 and 95 on January 21-23, then 90, 88, 87 and   
   85 on January 24-27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30   
   before rising above 90 after the first week in February.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10 and 12 on December   
   24-29, 8 on December 30-31, 2021, then 5 on January 1-8, 2022, then   
   8 and 5 on January 9-10, 10 on January 11-12, 5 on January 13-14,   
   then 8, 12, 18, 12 and 8 on January 15-19, 5 on January 20-22, then   
   8, 10, 8 and 8 on January 23-26, and 5 on January 27 through   
   February 4.   
      
   These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:   
      
   "Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models   
   of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in the Earth's   
   magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the   
   current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider   
   them as another promise of a higher maximum of the 25th cycle.   
      
   "Most spots are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, M-class   
   flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed   
   from the minimum to the highest values in two weeks and the speed of   
   the solar wind remaining increased in ten days.   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, only after   
   the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These   
   changes were mostly favorable for the changes in the shortwave   
   propagation conditions. Before the beginning of the ascent, as   
   shortest the 18 MHz band was regularly opened for the DX contacts,   
   while in last days the 21 MHz band is opened relatively reliably.   
      
   "As a result of the eruptions of previous days, the Earth's magnetic   
   field activity should increase around December 24th and then   
   probably again on 27th.   
      
   "Before the end of the year, there will return a significant   
   decrease in solar activity. Its next growth is expected around   
   mid-January."   
      
   Thanks to KH6CP for this tip on the new WindCube satellite:   
      
   https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH   
      
   W9NY wrote from Chicago:   
      
   "Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10   
   Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the   
   United States from my Dune Acres location and for a few minutes at a   
   time signals from both the Colorado and California areas were very   
   strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but   
   only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.   
      
   "On Sunday 12/19/21 10 meters really opened up for a while. I first   
   heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S9 and not a signal on   
   the band.  After one CQ at 28.420 I started a long string of   
   contacts in the late morning, and again mid-afternoon. Some West   
   coast stations running just 100 watts to dipoles were coming in 20   
   over S9 - just like the good old days.   
      
   "Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard NOTHING on 6 meters.   
      
   "I am looking forward to 10 meters using my MFJ loop from Miami   
   Beach the 1st 3 months of 2022."   
      
   KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:   
      
   "Wednesday, December 22, 2021 there was a six-hour multi-hop   
   transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on the 11 meter   
   band from 1326-1929 UTC.   
      
   "Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle   
   at 140. This was due to 9 sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911,   
   2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918."   
      
   He also wrote:   
      
   "Sunday, December 19, 2021 was a crazy eight hour single and   
   multi-hop sporadic-E day on the 11 meter band from 11:23 AM till   
   7:37 PM EST; 1623 UTC December 19th - 0037 UTC December 20th.   
      
   "During noontime, western Canada prairie provinces plus US west   
   coast stations were rolling into the US northeast region.   
      
   "From 5:22 PM to 6:20 PM Es conditions were deteriorating with   
   increased background noise conditions until the last station from   
   Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 7:37 PM.   
      
   "Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."   
      
   On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote,   
   regarding 10 meters:   
      
   "I've never seen so many KL7s on at once.  So far, have worked two,   
   plus VE8CK and VY1FC.   
      
   "PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and   
   JA and VK at 2215 UTC on 12/19/2021. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.   
      
   "If only this happened LAST weekend!"   
      
   N0JK wrote:   
      
   "I was on 6M MSK144 the morning of December 14 at the peak of the   
   Geminids Meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy.  Worked WI9WI, WG0G and   
   KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.   
      
   "Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen,   
   but no decodes."   
      
   W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington commented on his December 19   
   activity on 15 meters:   
      
   "As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my   
   low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S5-S7   
   with very little QSB and we had a solid 25 minute QSO and then I   
   listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an   
   enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY at 1950 UTC and he was also   
   S5-S7, but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was   
   consistent. I heard no European stations."   
      
   Carl, K9LA commented:   
      
   "The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different   
   mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this   
   (called the Santa Claus Polar Path) in my monthly column on my   
   website back in 2014."   
      
   http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf .   
      
   Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new forecast on December 23 with a   
   video lasting 96 minutes:   
      
   https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 16 through 22, 2021 were 127, 119, 117,   
   109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. 10.7 cm flux was   
   117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of   
   125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11,   
   with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7,   
   and 8, with a mean of 6.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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