TZUTC: -0600   
   MSGID: 61.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 26191bf0   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19a-Win32 master/717592bc9 Dec  2 2021 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/717592bc9 Dec  2 2021 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
      
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP50   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 10, 2021   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP050   
   ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but four days later it   
   was gone, and on Thursday, December 9 we saw the second day with no   
   sunspots.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average   
   daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising.   
   The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10, 80 on December   
   11-14, 82 on December 15, 84 on December 16-17, 85 on December 18,   
   87 on December 19-22, 86 on December 23-27, 84 on December 28, 82 on   
   December 29 through January 2, 80 on January 3-5, 82 on January 6-8,   
   80 on January 9-10, 82 on January 11, 85 on January 12-14 and 87 on   
   January 15-18.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10 and 8 on December 10-13, 8   
   on December 13-14, 5 on December 14-15, then 10, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on   
   December 16-20, 5 on December 21-26, then 15, 18 and 12 on December   
   27-29, 8 on December 30 through January 3, 5 on January 4-5, then   
   10, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on January 6-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 15,   
   12, 10 and 8 on January 13-16, and 5 on January 17-22.   
      
   From OK1HH:   
      
   "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's   
   Ionosphere, December 9, 2021.   
      
   "(Created as a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity   
   predictions, published since 1978.)   
      
   "The only sunspot group on solar disk No. 2904, in which we observed   
   three spots (=> R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to   
   plage. Thus, R = 0 applies since December 8, so we register a   
   minimum within the quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day fluctuation. At   
   the same time, the solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field   
   has calmed down and consequently result are the lowest values of   
   f0F2. However, the decreasing length of sunshine in the Earth's   
   northern hemisphere also contributes to it.   
      
   "In the remaining weeks until the end of the year, we can expect a   
   gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November,   
   an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet   
   and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly   
   above average.   
      
   "F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH   
   Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz   
   Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"   
      
   This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest! Solar flux should   
   be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid   
   Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the   
   Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13. See   
   http://www.ARRL.org/10-meter for contest details.   
      
   N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas, "The Geminids Meteor shower   
   is predicted to peak December 13-14. Already meteor rates are   
   picking up.   
      
   "I was able to work NJ0W/R in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter   
   using the MSK144 mode on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W made   
   other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare   
   grid for the FFMA (Fred Fish Memorial Award) on 6 Meters."   
      
   The FFMA will be awarded to anyone working all North America grid   
   squares on 6 meters. So far Fred Fish is the only ham who has done   
   this.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 2 through 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36,   
   14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 85.3,   
   88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of   
   7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a   
   mean of 5.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
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