TZUTC: -0500   
   MSGID: 21.fidonet-ls_arrl@1:2320/33 25cf30df   
   PID: Synchronet 3.19a-Win32 master/ccc0e4019 Oct 11 2021 MSC 1928   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.14-Win32 master/ccc0e4019 Oct 11 2021 MSC 1928   
   BBSID: TBOLT   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP42   
   QST de W1AW    
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 15, 2021   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Although we saw sunspots on every day of this reporting week   
   (October 7-13), solar activity declined somewhat. Average daily   
   sunspot numbers went from 30.7 to 23.7, and average daily solar flux   
   from 86.9 to 85.6. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average   
   daily planetary A index rising from 8.1 to 12.4, and average daily   
   middle latitude A index from 6.7 to 10.1.   
      
   On Saturday, October 9, Spaceweather.com reported a strong   
   Earth-directed M1.6 class solar flare and CME erupting at 0640 UTC,   
   causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This   
   caused the planetary A index on October 12 to hit 45, and Alaska's   
   College A index to read 60.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 82 on October 15, 80 and 78 on October   
   16-17, 76 on October  18-22, 85 on October 23-24, then 90, 100, 95   
   and 90 on October 25-28, 88 on October 29-30, 85 on October 31   
   through November 5, 88 on November 6, 85 on November 7-13, 88 on   
   November 14-15, 90 on November 16, 88 on November 17-18, and back to   
   100 on November 22.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 15-16, 5 on October 17,   
   12 on October 18-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, 10 on   
   October 25, 5 on October 26 to November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on   
   November 3-5, 10 on November 6-7, 8 on November 8-9, 5 on November   
   10-12, then 10, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on November 13-17, and 5 on   
   November 18-20, then 10 on November 21, and 5 through the end of the   
   month.   
      
   Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 15 to November   
   09, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.   
      
   "Geomagnetic field will be:   
   quiet on: October 16-17, November 3, 5,   
   quiet to unsettled on: October 20-22, 24, 26-27, 30-31, November 4,   
   quiet to active on: October 23, 25, November 6,   
   unsettled to active on: October (15, 18-19, 28-29,) November (1-2,) 7-9,   
   Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.   
      
   "Solar wind will intensify on October (19, 22, 25,) 27-31, November   
   1, 9.   
      
   "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."   
      
   On October 12, Spaceweather.com reported in an email alert: "Last   
   night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field,   
   sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted   
   in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some   
   places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell   
   phones."   
      
   The November 2021 issue of QST arrived, and the article on page 70,   
   "Propagation Tools and Resources for Contesting" by WO1N, KC2G and   
   members of the Yankee Clipper Contest Club, shares some great   
   resources, not only of interest to contest operators.   
      
   Here's an interesting article on 60 meters propagation:   
      
   https://bit.ly/2YNlHLN   
      
   The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:   
      
   https://youtu.be/XrPW4337IHI   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .   
      
   For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see   
   http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information   
   Service web page at, at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 7 through 13, 2021 were 13, 13, 14, 38,   
   35, 26, and 27, with a mean of 23.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.7, 92.4,   
   81, 84.5, 88.5, 83.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 85.6. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 13, 45, and 6, with a mean of   
   12.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 9, 15, 32, and 5, with a   
   mean of 10.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32   
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)   
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