SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP14   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 8, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP014   
   ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Our Sun is still quite active, but sunspot numbers are down this   
   week when compared with the week before.  Average daily sunspot   
   numbers were down nearly 34 points to 68.3, and average daily solar   
   flux declined nearly 3 points to 111.8.  Geomagnetic activity was   
   quite strong this week, with planetary A index on April 2 at 20, and   
   26 on April 6.   
      
   The latest forecast from USAF and NOAA is for lower activity than   
   the forecast from Wednesday, reported in the ARRL Letter.  The   
   latest from Thursday, April 7 has solar flux of 110, 100, 95 and 100   
   for April 8-11, 105 on April 12-15, then 90, 100, and 115 on April   
   16-18, and 125 on April 19-27.  Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5,   
   10 and 10 on April 8-11, and 5 on April 12-17, and 7 on April 18-20.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on April 8,   
   quiet to unsettled April 9, unsettled to active April 10, active   
   April 11, unsettled April 12, quiet to unsettled April 13, and back   
   to quiet on April 14.   
      
   On April 4 NASA released a new solar cycle prediction, and they say   
   Cycle 24 may be the smallest sunspot cycle in 200 years.  Read about   
   this prediction at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   NOAA/SWPC Boulder has their own updated prediction, which you can   
   see on page 14 of the April 5 Preliminary Report and Forecast at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1857.pdf. This has hardly   
   changed from last month's version, at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1853.pdf, but notice that the   
   predicted smoothed sunspot values for April, May and August 2011 are   
   each slightly higher on the new one, by one point each.  Since these   
   smoothed values are averaged over a year, perhaps this slight   
   increase is because of higher recent solar activity.   
      
   As he often does, David Moore sent in a couple of interesting and   
   informative links.  Click on http://snurl.com/27r8mt for a video   
   from the Smithsonian on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the   
   STEREO mission.   
      
   The second at http://snurl.com/27r8n6 is an article from the   
   Smithsonian about scientific efforts to understand our Sun.   
      
   Glenn Wyant, VA3DX of St. Catherines, Ontario sent in a report on DX   
   recently worked.  He writes, "On March 25 my good friend Garry VE3XN   
   called me on the phone at about 1125z. He claimed he had just   
   finished his 5 Band WAZ with a XU7ACY (Cambodia) QSO on 80 meters   
   CW! Although it was too late for me that day, I was there the next   
   day and put Peter XU7ACY in my log for a new one on 80.   
      
   "What was really neat was to work Peter again on March 28 at 1133z   
   for a new one on 12 meters! I also worked E21EJC (Thailand) on 12   
   meters at 1620z for another new one on 12. The following day (March   
   29) I again worked Kob E21EJC on 10 meters at 1440z, as well as   
   VU4PB on 12 CW at 0103z, and had to beam at 190 degrees to copy him.   
   I figured I was done with new band countries for awhile now, but   
   March 30 proved me wrong.   
      
   "At 1437z I worked VU4PB on 10 meter CW and then again at 1558z on   
   10 meter SSB. Both QSOs were on the traditional path at 10 degrees.   
      
   "What was strange was that VU4PB was 5x7 here at one point on SSB,   
   yet my friend Garry VE3XN, only 142 miles west of me and using the   
   same antenna as I and at the same height could not copy them at all!   
   Sort of like 6 meter spotlight propagation."   
      
   See a picture of Glenn and his station at,   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/va3dx.   
      
   Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico says, "Last week   
   I had an 'Arabian Night' because between 31 March/1 April UTC over a   
   50 minute period got to work A92GR, A41OW and 9K2OD on 20 meters,   
   plus heard 9Y4D work a VU3, which sounded very strong! And 1/2 an   
   hour later contacted the largest Island of the world: Greenland -   
   OX3KQ on 18.126 MHz. And incredibly got to work YB0NFL on 10 meters   
   at 1530 UTC (11:30 am local) Saturday 2nd!"   
      
   This was all on SSB. See an interesting photo of Angel in his   
   station at, http://qrz.com/db/wp3gw.   
      
   Dan Eskenazi, K7SS of Seattle notes that just before the recent   
   improved propagation conditions, his antenna blew down in a   
   windstorm.  Now some of his more superstitious ham friends are   
   begging him not to put it back up.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6 were 76, 62, 66, 70,   
   83, 65, and 56, with a mean of 68.3. 10.7 cm flux was 113.3, 108.9,   
   107.5, 114, 112.7, 109.2, and 117.1, with a mean of 111.8. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 13, 20, 16, 8, 7, and 26, with a mean of   
   13.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 9, 13, 11, 6, 4, and   
   16, with a mean of 8.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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