SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013   
   ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP13   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 1, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP013   
   ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The activity we could see recently on our Sun's far side -- thanks   
   to the STEREO mission (http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov) -- has been   
   rotating into view, producing some nice sunspot activity and the   
   resulting improved upper-HF propagation.  Compared to the previous   
   week (March 17-23), the past week (March 24-30) showed average daily   
   sunspot numbers up over 61 points to 102.1, and average daily solar   
   flux up nearly 20 points to 114.7.  Geomagnetic conditions were   
   quieter as well, and reports from readers show greatly improved   
   propagation on all the upper-HF bands, 20 through 10 meters.   
      
   The table at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt shows a   
   new sunspot group on March 23, two more groups appeared March 24,   
   two more on March 25, and two more on March 27.   
      
   The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA, issued Thursday, March 31   
   differs from the one from the previous day.  The March 30 prediction   
   was referenced in the ARRL Letter, and the new prediction is less   
   optimistic in terms of increasing solar activity.   
      
   The March 31 projection shows solar flux at 115 on April 1-2, 110 on   
   April 3-5, 105 on April 6-8, 100 on April 9-10, and for April 11-17   
   flux values of 95, 95, 90, 88, 88, 90 and 100.  Then they show a   
   rise to 125 on April 19-27, and 135 on April 28.   
      
   The latest planetary A index projection shows an Ap of 8 on April 1,   
   5 on April 2-7, 8 on April 8, and back to 5 on April 9-17.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   April 1, quiet April 2-4, quiet to unsettled April 5, and unsettled   
   April 6-7.   
      
   Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY informs us of the annual Space Weather   
   Workshop, scheduled April 26-29, 2011 in Boulder, Colorado. Check   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sww for details and registration   
   information.   
      
   Rob also reminds us, "There is a nice web application for examining   
   imagery from the SDO and SOHO spacecraft. It is called 'Helioviewer'   
   and can be found at http://helioviewer.org. There's also an   
   open-source application folks can load on their computer called   
   'JHelioviewer' at http://jhelioviewer.org. Users can create   
   whole-disk animations as well as movie loops zoomed in on active   
   regions. They can also overlay various images. JHelioviewer and   
   Helioviewer.org are open-source projects for the visualization of   
   solar and heliospheric data.  The projects are funded by ESA and   
   NASA."   
      
   I noticed that http://helioviewer.org seems to work much better than   
   when it was first announced.  You can zoom in on the latest images,   
   and also step back in time to see how the Sun has changed over the   
   previous few hours, days or weeks.   
      
   Now that March has ended, we can review some sunspot number averages   
   over previous months.  The monthly averages for sunspot numbers,   
   December 2010 through March 2011 were 22, 32.2, 53.5 and 81.1.  This   
   represents a dramatic increase in solar activity.  We've also been   
   looking at a 3-month moving average, and the latest is for January 1   
   through March 31, centered on February. The three month moving   
   average centered on March 2010 through February 2011 was 22.3, 18.5,   
   16.4, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33, 35.6, 31, 30.1, 35.3 and 55.7.  So to   
   review and clarify, 35.3 is the average for all daily sunspot   
   numbers from December 1 through February 28, and 55.7 is the average   
   of all sunspot numbers from January 1 through March 31.   
      
   Charles Tropp, N2SO of Staten Island, New York is excited about   
   10-meter propagation.  He writes, "I saw a spot for 5N7M Ivan in   
   Abuja, Nigeria on Monday 3/29 at 2000 UTC on 28.009 MHz CW so I   
   checked the frequency and sure enough there he was loud and clear in   
   Staten Island, NY. He was working US call areas 1,2,3,4 and 5, none   
   of which I could hear. So I turned on my XIT up about 1.25 and gave   
   him a call.  He came right back to me about 589. After I logged him   
   I decided to check my Ham Cap propagation program which I run with   
   IonoProbe and DX Atlas to see why this QSO was possible with my   
   backyard vertical and my K3 running 100W. The effective SSN was   
   about 72 at the time, KP was 1 and yes according to DX Atlas there   
   was a thin crescent moon shaped propagation path running down Mexico   
   and Central America, across the South Atlantic and just reaching   
   Nigeria about 5,230 miles from my QTH.  All of the US was dark which   
   explains why I couldn't hear any other signals. I just thought I   
   would share my excitement."   
      
   At first I was confused by Charles' description of the propagation   
   path, because this seemed an unlikely route for his signal to take.   
   But he is probably talking about areas shown on the map that have   
   propagation to Nigeria, which could be over a large area.   
      
   You can see a nice photo of Charles and his station at   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/n2so. Click on the photo to zoom in.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington is excited about the   
   increased solar activity and resulting HF propagation.  He writes,   
   "This past month has been the most amazing this year for high band   
   propagation, as I am certain all DXers would agree for Cycle 24.   
   There have been more days with the solar flux over 100 than below,   
   in addition reaching a new high. 17 meters sounds like 20, both 17   
   and 15 are loaded with DX stations from sunrise to well after   
   sunset. 12 meters has been extremely productive in the past few   
   days, with EU DX from 1500Z to 2200Z! I have had QSOs with stations   
   not heard since 2001-02 as folks renew their interest. It really is   
   great to see the high bands snap back after an incredibly long dry   
   spell."   
      
   Mike Shaffer, KA3JAW of Tampa, Florida sent in a link to some video   
   recordings of broadcast television DX via tropospheric propagation   
   from Cuba.  You can see it at   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBuxDSSA8D0.  This shows several   
   stations received on Sunday, March 27.   
      
   Eric Bowen WK4CW of Winston-Salem, North Carolina sent in this   
   report: "Just a report from the CQ WPX contest. Between 2200-2300   
   UTC on 3/27/2011, I was able to work VK4RK and VK4MC along with   
   several JAs on 10 meter SSB from Winston-Salem, NC. I personally   
   have not worked any VKs from the East Coast on 10 meters in quite a   
   long time and all were between 5/7 to 5/9 RST. Rig was FT-920 at 100   
   watts and Force 12 up 70 feet. Conditions on all bands were good   
   throughout the contest and the flux at the time was 115 with K and A   
   indexes both at 1. The SSN was 104."   
      
   This report arrived on March 27: "I am Steve Moles N5TEY from   
   Pawhuska, OK. I have read your propagation column weekly from the   
   ARRL for years. I have always envied those operators you noted in   
   your report who had worked the hard to find DX stations on an upper   
   band. I was fortunate enough to catch one of those openings myself   
   today.   
      
   "I had just came home from church and opened my BandMaster program   
   and saw that VU2PAI (Ananth in Mangalore, India) was working well   
   into the US on 12M. I moved late last Fall and only have up a   
   Cushcraft MA5V using RG-8X feed line at 250 watts from 746 Pro at   
   this time. The past winter has been tough here and I am just now   
   preparing to put up my tower for my hybrid cubical quad. The reports   
   from the cluster reported Ananth as being a true 59 into the   
   southern US; I thought I would give it a try.   
      
   "I turned on the 746 Pro and tuned to 24.965 MHz and VU2PAI was   
   there at a true 59 at my home in northern OK. I tuned my amplifier   
   and gave a call up two (24.967 MHz) and Ananth replied to me on the   
   first call as 59 into southern India at 1613 UTC. I was so shocked I   
   almost fell out of my chair! One of my daughters was in the room   
   with me and she asked where the guy was I had just spoken with? She   
   was amazed at how well he sounded.   
      
   "I had read last week about N8II reporting daily openings on 12M   
   into EU. I was able to experience the 12m opening today myself and   
   still can hardly believe it."  Check out Steve's site at   
   http://n5tey.com.   
      
   Rich Dowty, W7EET of St. Paul, Oregon notes that the DX Sherlock   
   site (http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/map.php) also shows HF propagation   
   maps in addition to VHF. You can select HF and any continent to look   
   at current conditions.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30 were 73, 104, 104, 132, 103,   
   108, and 91, with a mean of 102.1. 10.7 cm flux was 107.6, 112.6,   
   114.5, 115.6, 118.5, 116.2, and 117.6, with a mean of 114.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, with a   
   mean of 3.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2,   
   and 4, with a mean of 2.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   We invite you to use and support the ham-fdn!   
   The ham-fdn is coordinated by Mark LEwis at fidonet 1:3634/12.  Contact him   
   for further   
   information about ham-fdn file echoes.  Announcements of newly   
   hatched ham-fdn files can be seen in the echoes ham and ham_tech.   
      
   THe ham-fdn is distributed by the International FIlegate project.   
   Ham-fdn file echoes are available from major hubs.  Bbs users with an   
   interest in these file echoes should ask your sysop to carry them.   
      
   Users and sysops with materials appropriate for distribution   
   via the ham-fdn should contact the coordinator for submission   
   guidelines at the above shown address.  IF you have access to   
   shareware programs that would be useful to radio amateurs,   
   or other files which may be appropriate use the back channel   
   area to submit them.  IF you are not sure how to accomplish this   
   contact the fdn coordinator, or ask your local bbs sysop.   
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)