SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP05   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 3, 2017   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Over the past reporting week (January 26 through February 1) average daily   
   sunspot number declined 21.1 points to 31.6, compared to the previous seven   
   days.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index increased from 8 to 15.6, and average   
   mid-latitude A index rose 5 points to 11.4.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 75 on February 3, 74 on February 4 and 5, 75 on   
   February 6 to 10, 77 on February 11 and 12, then 78, 79 and 81 on February 13   
   to 15, 83 on February 16 to 18, 85 on February 19 to 21, 80 on February 22 to   
   24, then 75 and 76 on February 25 and 26, 75 on February 27 through March 1,   
   74 on March 2 and 3, 72 on March 4 and 5, 75 and 76 on March 6 and 7, 77 on   
   March 8 to 11 and 78, 79 and 81 on March 12 to 14.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on February 3 to 7, 5 on   
   February 8 to 13, 15 on February 14, 10 on February 15 and 16, 8 on February   
   17 and 18, 5 on February 19 to 21, 10 and 15 on February 22 to 23, 10 on   
   February 24 to 26, then 25, 20 and 18 on February 27 through March 1, 15 on   
   March 2 to 4, then 10 and 8 on March 5 and 6, 5 on March 7 to 12, 15 on March   
   13, 10 on March 14 and 15, and 8 on March 16 and 17.   
      
   Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 3 to March 2, 2017 from   
   OK1HH.  Geomagnetic field will be:   
      
   Quiet on February 12, 26   
   Mostly quiet on February 10 and 11, 13 and 14, 22 and 23   
   Quiet to unsettled on February 9, 21, 27   
   Quiet to active on February 4 to 6, 8, 16 and 17, 20, 25, 28   
   Active to disturbed on February 3, 7, 15, 18 and 19, 24, March 1 and 2   
      
   Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on February 3   
   to 7, (8 and 9,) 16 to 21, (22,) 26 and 27   
      
   Remark:   
   - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.   
      
      
   Thanks to David Moore for this article on how NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space   
   Telescope sees events on the sun's far side:   
      
   http://bit.ly/2kZmd4h   
      
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w   
   aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good information and tutorials on   
   propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or   
   ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 26 through February 1, 2017 were 31, 33, 28, 24,   
   35, 42, and 28, with a mean of 31.6. 10.7 cm flux was 83.1, 80.3, 78.5, 76.6,   
   77, 76, and 76, with a mean of 78.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13,   
   21, 9, 7, 6, 24, and 29, with a mean of 15.6.  Estimated mid-latitude A   
   indices were 11, 17, 7, 5, 5, 16, and 19, with a mean of 11.4.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
   ... Give them all they want, and all they will want is more.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)