SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 13, 2017   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   No sunspots were visible on January 1-2 and none on January 4-11. Our   
   reporting week is January 5-11, so the average daily sunspot number for that   
   period was zero.   
      
   For a look at recent sunspot numbers, check ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.   
   ov/pub/indices/DSD.txt and note the many zeroes.   
      
   Average daily solar flux this week was 72.5, down from 73.1 the week before.   
   Average planetary A index rose 5 points to 14.3, while average mid-latitude A   
   index increased from 6.3 to 10.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 80 and 82 on January 13-14, 85 on January 15-19, 76 on   
   January 20-25, 74 on January 26-28, 73 on January 29 through February 1, 72 on   
   February 2-7, 74 on February 8, and 76 on February 9-21.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 13-14, 5 on January 15, 10 on   
   January 16, 20 on January 17-19, 18 on January 20, 20 on January 21-22, 10 on   
   January 23, 5 on January 24-26, then 12, 15, 7, 10 and 12 on January 27-31,   
   then 16, 18, 20, 16, 12 and 5 on February 1-6, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on   
   February 7-10, 5 on February 11-12, then 25, 20, 25 and 18 on February 13-16,   
   and 20 on February 17-18.   
      
      
   This from "Sky and Telescope" regarding our spotless Sun:   
      
   http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/the-spotless-sun/   
      
   And, another:   
      
   https://www.sott.net/article/339435-Sunspots-vanish-space-weather-continues   
      
      
   > From Jon Jones, N0JK:   
      
   "Good sporadic-E on 6 meters January 8, 9 and 10th, 2017.   
      
   "Best probably day so far January 9, 6 meters was open from coast to coast   
   with some double hop Es worked from the west coast to 8 land confirmed by this   
   spot:   
      
   "W6XK  17/01/09 1958Z  50276.0 EN81LI CM97 Copied in OH  N8EHW   
      
   "K7JA DM03 notes 10 hours of sporadic-E on 6 meters, Jan. 9.   
      
   "December, 2016 was so poor. Not sure yet why January, 2017 is so much better,   
   but will roll with it.   
      
   "I worked AI1K DM34 and KA7JOI DM54 with just a 10 W SSB MFJ-9406, and mag   
   mount whip on the car from the KC VA Hospital parking lot on a short break   
   from work about 1850z Jan. 9. Both stations were very strong via sporadic-E on   
   6. KA7JOI so loud he sounded like was just a few cars away!  K5SW observed   
   Jan. 9 was 'like summer E-skip on 6."'   
      
      
   NASA released an update on the current solar cycle, but there is no new   
   information, except two links.   
      
   https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml   
      
   The updated links:   
      
   https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=19197261   
      
   https://solarprobe.gsfc.nasa.gov/   
      
      
   > From OK1HH, F.K. Janda:   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 13 to February 8, 2017:   
      
   "Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on January 16, 26   
   Mostly quiet on January 13, 24-25   
   Quiet to unsettled on January 14-15, 23, 29, 31, February 5   
   Quiet to active on January 17, 20, 22, 27, 30, February 3-4, 6, 8   
   Active to disturbed on January 18-19, 21, 28, February 1-2, 7   
      
   "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January   
   18-20, (21-24,) 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 6-7   
      
   "Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. -   
   Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!  Therefore, the   
   current forecast is less reliable.   
      
   "Beware of 'Paraskavedekatriaphobia' tomorrow. "   
      
   I am particularly pleased to see the OK1HH warning about Paraska   
   edekatriaphobia - the fear of Friday the 13 - something we don't hear much   
   about anymore.   
      
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://   
   rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w   
   aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on   
   propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or   
   ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 5 through 11, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0,   
   with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.3, 72, 72, 71.5, 71.2, 72.7, and 74.5,   
   with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 18, 16, 20, 16, 12, 10, and 8, with a mean of 14.3. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 15, 14, 14, 11, 8, 5, and 7, with a mean of 10.6.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
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   ---   
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