SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP53   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53  ARLP053   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 30, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning   
   on December 29 at 0010 UTC.   
      
   "A recurrent equatorial coronal hole will soon reach geoeffective location on   
   the solar disk. The size of the current coronal hole is relatively larger   
   compared to its characteristics during the previous rotation. The co-rotating   
   interaction region and subsequent high speed streams associated with the   
   coronal hole is expected to affect Earth from late 30 December. Auroras may be   
   visible on the local nights of 30 and 31 December in Tasmania and possibly   
   from the coastline of Victoria."   
      
   The warning said to expect active geomagnetic conditions on December 30 and 31.   
      
   The past two and a half weeks have seen seven days with 0 sunspots, spread   
   over four periods of one to three days each.   
      
   The first was December 10, then two days over December 16-17, then three days   
   on December 23-25 and finally yesterday, December 29.   
      
   Over the latest reporting week, December 22-28, average daily sunspot number   
   was 7.6, down from 11 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux   
   changed only slightly from 73.2 to 73.6. Average daily planetary A index   
   increased from 7.9 to 17.3 and mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 11.6.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is about the same as recent indices. 72 on December 30,   
   75 on December 31 through January 6, 79 on January 7-9, 77 on January 10-13,   
   75 on January 14-19, 73 on January 20-23, 75 on January 24-27, 77 on January   
   28 through February 1, 79 on February 2-5, and 77 on February 6-9.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 24, 18, 10 and 12 on December 30 through   
   January 3, 24 on January 4-5, then 16, 14 and 6 on January 6-8, 5 on January   
   9-13, 10 on January 14, 5 on January 15-16, then 25, 20 and 25 on January   
   17-19, 18 on January 20-21, 10 on January 22, 5 on January 23-25, then 15, 10,   
   5, 8, 10 and 20 on January 26-31, then 22, 16, 14 and 6 on February 1-4 and 5   
   on February 5-9.   
      
   We also have a geomagnetic activity forecast from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, for the   
   period December 30 2016 to January 25, 2017.   
      
   Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on January 10-12   
   Mostly quiet on January 8-9, 25   
   Quiet to unsettled on January 1-3, 13-16, 23-24   
   Quiet to active on December 30 January 6-7, 17-20   
   Active to disturbed on December 31, January 4-5, 21-22   
   Increased solar wind from coronal holes expected on December 30-31,   
   January 4-7, and then 17-22.   
      
      
      
   Bob Hillman, AG6XC/VE7EK wrote:   
      
   "I find the reports of value and look forward to each one.   
      
   "While I take the time to dig into the science, I've developed a fondness for   
   the candid comments of hams reporting their personal experiences.   
      
   "All are different and reading them reminds me why I developed a life-long   
   interest in the hobby.  I like hearing from the guy who perseveres and finds   
   some DX with a limited station and limitless   
   patience.   
      
   "It keeps alive some of the 'mystery' and 'magic' of the art, with some unique   
   stories of success, even in light of poor HF propagation conditions.   
      
   "Warmest wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!"   
      
      
      
   Don't forget, Straight Key Night happens this weekend. Unpack your old J-38,   
   Speed-X or Lionel (or any other) straight key and put it on the air. Details   
   at http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night .   
      
   Here are a few images of straight keys to whet your appetite for tomorrow:   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/sop-12102.jpg   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/P1020280.JPG   
      
   http://www.maxmccoy.com/Western-Electric-Key.jpg   
      
   http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3273/2874491297_d892abf31b_z.jpg   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/A%20SKN%20Key%20Table.jpg   
      
   http://www.i2rtf.com/assets/images/SPARK_SCONTORNATO.jpg   
      
   https://sites.google.com/site/wb9lpu/D40-0258r.jpg   
      
   http://www.kn5l.net/morse/vibro_straight.jpg   
      
   http://www.qsl.net/ur3ijc/ur3ijc_trcvr.jpg   
      
   http://www.telegraphkeys.com/images/straightkeys/swedish/oller-mine.jpg   
      
   http://bit.ly/2hC0fmK   
      
   http://www.wj1b.com/uploads/8/4/0/9/8409204/9766595_orig.jpg   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
      
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://   
   rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.   
      
   An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w   
   aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on   
   propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or   
   ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 13, 14, and 14,   
   with a mean of 7.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 73.7, 73.1, 72.5, 73.8, 73.7, and   
   73.3, with a mean of 73.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 24, 14, 21,   
   22, 11, and 6, with a mean of 17.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15,   
   17, 10, 12, 15, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11.6.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
   ... No sorrow like the loss of friends.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)