SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP46   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46  ARLP046   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 11, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 0002 UTC on November 9, this geomagnetic warning was distributed by   
   Australia's Space Forecast Centre:   
      
   "SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 16/48 ISSUED AT 0002UT/09 NOVEMBER   
   2016 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.   
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND   
   STREAM AND POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW FROM CME ASSOCIATED WITH 05NOV FILAMENT ON   
   09-10 NOVEMBER 2016   
      
   "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST   
   09 Nov:  Quiet to Minor Storm   
   10 Nov:  Active"   
      
   Later on the same day, the USAF Space Weather operation Ap forecast predicts   
   the disturbance perhaps a few days later. The USAF forecast was issued about   
   21 hours later than the Australian forecast. Now we have an updated forecast   
   from Thursday, November 10.   
      
   At 0005 UTC on November 11 a similar warning was issued:   
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH   
   SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 11-12 NOVEMBER 2016.   
      
   "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST   
   11 Nov:  Unsettled with possible Active to Minor Storm periods   
   12 Nov:  Active to Minor Storm"   
      
   Average daily sunspot number over the past week (November 3-9) doubled from   
   9.1 to 18.7, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux   
   changed only marginally from 77.5 to 76.9. Geomagnetic indices were lower,   
   with average planetary A index changing from 18.1 to 6.4, and mid-latitude A   
   index (measured at Wallops Island, Virginia) moved from 13.4 to 4.3.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 26, 28, 18 and 12 on November 11-14, then 8, 5,   
   3 and 5 on November 15-18, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on November 19-23, then   
   18, 22, 18, 12 and 10 on November 24-28, 8 on November 29-30, 5 on December   
   1-3, then 8, 20 and 8 on December 4-6, 10, 12 and 20 on December 7-9, then 18,   
   10 and 8 on December 10-12, 5 on December 13-15, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on   
   December 16-20, and 18, 22 and 18 on December 21-23.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 80 on November 11-13, 85 on November 14-15, 90 on   
   November 16-17, then 80, 77 and 75 on November 18-20, 78 on November 21-22, 79   
   on November 23-25, 78 on November 26, 77 on   
   November 27-28, 76 on November 29-30, 77 on December 1-3, 75 on December 4-5,   
   then 78 on December 6-15, 77 and 75 on December 16-17, then 78 on December   
   18-19 and 79 on December 20-22.   
      
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends us this   
   geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 11-December 7, 2016.   
      
   Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on November 15-17, December 1-4   
   Mostly quiet on November 14, 19, 28, December 7   
   Quiet to unsettled on November 11, 18, 26-27, December 5   
   Quiet to active on November 12-13, 20, 24, 29-30, December 6   
   Active to disturbed on November 21-22, (23, 25)   
      
   Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on November 11-13, 18-20   
      
   Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. -   
   Reliability of predictions is reduced at present.   
      
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia checked in with   
   observations on November 10:   
      
   "Nothing too exciting has happened on the bands until today. SFI has been   
   running around 76-78 most of the week with quiet geomagnetic conditions, but   
   the limited daylight now is really limiting polar path DX with just a few JAs   
   and R0XR in Eastern Asiatic Russia logged on 20 around 2300Z.   
      
   "Signals are good from Australia most mornings around 1230Z on 20 meters. 15   
   meters is open most days to the Mediterranean area of EU extending up to   
   England with some strong signals from that area. Today, Nov 10, was pretty   
   typical with signals improving around 1600Z to EU with Peter, MI1ERL in   
   Northern Ireland being the loudest worked at S9+20dB on peaks. I then checked   
   12 meter CW to find ZD8W on Ascension Island in the south Atlantic with a   
   Spanish station heard calling him. I logged ZD8W, then proceeded to work   
   several Spanish stations with good signals along with two from Portugal   
   including CT1DGE running 5 watts. EA8DO and EA8TL in the Canary Is. were both   
   S9+. But the big surprise of the day was a call from Finland, OH2LZC at 1639Z,   
   also on 12 meters. There must have been some auroral Es, Niko was only running   
   200W to an 80M loop antenna and was S5 on peaks with deep rapid QSB."   
      
      
   Ran across this interesting piece today about reconstructing sunspot data from   
   400 years ago:   
      
   http://bit.ly/2fpj8EK   
      
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt   
   ://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9 were 23, 25, 24, 23, 24, 0, and 12,   
   with a mean of 18.7. 10.7 cm flux was 75.6, 76.7, 76.7, 76.2, 76.5, 76.9, and   
   79.9, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 5, 3, 5, 4,   
   3, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 3, 2,   
   4, 2, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.3.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
   ... Don't bother pushing that key. There is no Esc   
   ---   
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