SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP43   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 21, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Over the past reporting week (October 13-19) compared to the previous seven   
   days average daily sunspot number declined from 55 to 31, while average daily   
   solar flux dropped from 101.9 to 83.4.   
      
   Planetary A index increased from 6.6 to 19.1, and average mid-latitude A index   
   jumped from 5 to 14.   
      
   This is the opposite of what happened two weeks ago compared to last week,   
   when A indices decreased but solar flux and sunspot numbers rose.   
      
   The latest prediction for solar flux (from the October 20 prediction) shows   
   these values: 75 on October 21-23, 72 on October 24, 75 on October 25-26, 80   
   on October 27, 75 on October 28-29, 80 on October 30, 85 on October 31 through   
   November 5, 90 on November 6-8, 85 on October 9-11, 80 on November 12-14, 75   
   on November 15-19, 70 on November 20-22, 75 on November 23-25, 80 on November   
   26 and 85 on November 27-30.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21, then 22, 24 and 40 on October   
   22-24, then 44, 40 and 22 on October 24-27, 15 on October 28-30, 25 on October   
   31, 12 on November 1, 5 on November 2-5, 8 on November 6, 5 on November 7-10,   
   then 10, 24, 26, 12 and 8 on November 11-15, 5 on November 16-17, then 12 and   
   22 on November 18-19, 35 on November 20-22, 20 on November 23, 15 on November   
   24-26, 25 on November 27, 12 on November 28 and 5 from November 29 to December   
   2.   
      
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent the following   
   geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 21-November 16, 2016.   
      
   "Geomagnetic field will be:   
      
   "Quiet on November 7-8   
   Mostly quiet on November 3-4, 9-11, 15-16   
   Quiet to unsettled on October 21, November 1-2, 5-6, 14   
   Quiet to active on October 22-23, 29-31, November 12-13   
   Active to disturbed on October 24-28   
      
   "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on October   
   22-31, November 5-6, 11-13."   
      
      
      
   Here is a web article about a nearby star which seems to exhibit sunspot   
   activity:   
      
   http://bit.ly/2enuNmR   
      
   Another solar article, but this one regarding our own Sun:   
      
   http://bit.ly/2eYtKNJ   
      
      
      
   Reader Roger Larson, KF6IVA of Harrison, Maine says he uses an inexpensive   
   alternative to solar telescopes called the Sunocular. A week ago he sent this   
   message: "You can buy a special pair of binoculars (Sunoculars, 8x32   
   binoculars with a special coating) that allow you to observe the Sun. I can   
   see a big sunspot headed off to the western limb, other that the Sun is   
   featureless."   
      
   A week later he wrote: "The Sun was featureless yesterday. With these   
   'sunoculars' you can make out large sunspots and therefore get an idea of how   
   active the Sun is. I have seen specialized solar   
   telescopes which would show more due to their higher magnification but they   
   cost a thousand dollars plus."   
      
   Here is the last correspondence from Roger, received just as I was completing   
   this bulletin:   
      
   "They work pretty well realizing that they are only good for observing the   
   Sun. I imagine that you've looked at the Moon with binoculars, the Sun is   
   roughly the same angular dimensions (30 arc minutes).  The Moon has a lot of   
   features visible in 8 power binoculars, the Sun is featureless unless there's   
   a large sunspot(s). Along the edge of the Moon you'll see some 'rainbow'   
   effects due to imperfections in the lens unless you look with expensive   
   binoculars. Well there are a few of these rainbow effects visible in the   
   Sunoculars no worse than any other binoculars I've used. The objective lens   
   are coated with a material that allows ten-millionth (1x10-5) of the light to   
   pass through. The Sun appears about as bright as a full Moon in them."   
      
      
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt   
   ://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19 were 41, 38, 35, 25, 23, 24, and 31,   
   with a mean of 31. 10.7 cm flux was 95.3, 92.8, 84.9, 80.9, 76.2, 77.4, and   
   76.5, with a mean of 83.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 43, 24, 11, 18,   
   20, 11, and 7, with a mean of 19.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 30,   
   20, 8, 13, 12, 10, and 5, with a mean of 14.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
   ... There is intelligent life on Earth, but I'm just visiting.   
   ---   
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