SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP40   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 30, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic warning at 0022 UTC on   
   September 29:   
      
   "The geomagnetic conditions are expected to vary between active levels to   
   major storms for the next three days. This is because the solar winds are   
   expected to be in excess of 600 km/s associated with a very large positive   
   polarity coronal hole. The storm intensities are expected to be slightly   
   stronger than that observed in the previous two solar rotations (previous   
   rotation Ap was 32) associated with this coronal hole because the earth-sun   
   coupling efficiency is highest during the equinox periods. Thus there is   
   chance that aurora may be visible on the local nights of 29 September from   
   Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.   
      
   "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND   
   STREAM FROM 29 SEPTEMBER 2016 TO 01 OCTOBER 2016   
      
   "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST   
   29 Sep:  Minor Storm   
   30 Sep:  Minor Storm   
   01 Oct:  Active to Minor Storm"   
      
   This week's (September 22-28) average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux   
   changed little from the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers   
   changed from 29.9 to 29.7, and average daily solar flux declined just two   
   points from 83.4 to 81.4. Average planetary A index was much higher, changing   
   from 8.9 to 19.7, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 7.6 to 12.3.   
      
   Projected solar flux for the near term is 81 and 78 on September 30 through   
   October 1, 80 on October 2-3, 82 and 85 on October 4-5, 90 on October 6-14, 95   
   on October 15-18, 90 on October 19-21, 85 on October 22-27, 80 on October   
   28-31, 85 on November 1-3, and 90 on November 4-10.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 38, 30, 20, 14, 12, 10 and 6 on September 30   
   through October 6, 5 on October 7-14, then 8, 10, 20, 10, on October 15-18, 5   
   on October 19-22, then 18 and 12 on October 23-24, 35 on October 25-27, then   
   25, 20, 16, 10 and 8 on October 28 through November 1, 5 on November 2-10, and   
   8 on November 11.   
      
      
      
   Here is the weekly geomagnetic forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech   
   Propagation Interest Group:   
      
   "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 30-October 26, 2016   
      
   "Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on October 9-10, 13,   
   Mostly quiet on October 7, 11, 14, 20,   
   Quiet to unsettled on October 5-6, 8, 15-16, 19, 21,   
   Quiet to active on October 1-3, 5, 12, 17-18, 23-24   
   Active to disturbed on September 30, October 4, 22, 25-26   
      
   "Increases of solar wind from coronal holes are expected on September 30,   
   October 1-3 and 15-17."   
      
      
      
   On September 24 Jim McLelland WA6QBU of Santa Rosa, California sent this:   
      
   "Just a quick note about DX. I noted last night that conditions were quiet on   
   20 meters, which is unusual for me on the West Coast, with sunspots at 30, SFU   
   at 85 and a quiet Sun. Therefore, moving to 40 meters, I found the band open   
   to South Africa and worked Bill, ZS6CCY who was 10 dB over S9.  Keep up the   
   good work."   
      
   Then on September 30 he wrote, "Mr. Cook, One more thing - 10 meters was open   
   to Hawaii (SSB) from the West Coast last weekend and again Tuesday early   
   evening."   
      
      
      
   Mark Ammann, KM0A had some comments about VHF propagation enhanced by aurora   
   in a September 28 email:   
      
   "I always enjoy reading your propagation updates via ARRL email member list,   
   and especially the personalized experiences you include. Having been on 2   
   meters and 6 meters for almost 40 years, aurora is always fascinating yet   
   rare, more so on 2m since it provides DX distances normally unattainable on   
   that band, save for extended tropo or the rare E-skip opening. I wanted to add   
   to your   
   comments re Jon N0JK's aurora during the 2m sprint.   
      
   "2 meter aurora CW signals, in my opinion, are not 'buzzy' or 'distorted,' but   
   actually very easy to copy unless the signals are extremely weak. They sound   
   more like a hollow whisper. Sound clips   
   are below of actual aurora signals.   
      
   "As for aurora on 6 meter SSB, signals are distorted somewhat but easy to copy   
   if one speaks slowly. As for 2m SSB, signals are much distorted and very   
   difficult to comprehend. Sounds almost like the person is gargling rocks!   
      
   "Keep up the good work!"   
      
   Mark included links with audio samples of CW and SSB signals received via   
   auroral propagation.   
      
   http://www.n4st.com/aurora_cw.wav   
      
   http://www.dxmaps.com/sounds/2mssba.mp3   
      
      
      
   Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona, Hawaii sent this about using NVIS antennas on 40   
   meters:   
      
   "If of interest, you may want to put this out. We have nets, all year across   
   the Hawaiian Island chain at 4pm/0200 UTC on 40M, with our low antennas   
   barefoot, it is NVIS out to 200 miles. Sometimes very noisy, but usually work   
   all stations."   
      
   NVIS is Near Vertical Incidence Skywave propagation. Here are some references:   
      
   http://www.w0ipl.net/ECom/NVIS/nvis.htm   
      
   http://www.qsl.net/wb5ude/nvis/   
      
   http://hflink.com/propagation/   
      
      
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas sent this report early Friday morning,   
   September 30:   
      
   "With the Fall Equinox and geomagnetic storms this week due to a fast moving   
   stream of solar wind, 10 meters has come alive on north - south paths. The   
   last couple of days Uli, VP6AH has had a loud signal on 10 meters to North   
   America. He is running just 100 watts and a dipole antenna and was over S-9 on   
   my mobile Sept. 27 about 2015z.  H44GC, VK9NZ, FY5KE, VP8LP and others have   
   also been active on 10."   
      
      
      
   And finally, a story about a geomagnetic disturbance in 1941. Thanks to WW1ME   
   who forwarded this from the Southgate Amateur Radio News:   
      
   https://eos.org/features/the-geomagnetic-blitz-of-september-1941   
      
      
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
      
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28 were 30, 49, 47, 18, 23, 21, and   
   20, with a mean of 29.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.1, 85.5, 84.9, 84.6, 86.8, 85.6,   
   and 84.4, with a mean of 81.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 5, 23,   
   22, 38, and 42, with a mean of 19.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4,   
   3, 4, 12, 18, 21, and 24, with a mean of 12.3.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
   Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it   
   wrong...   
   ... The advantage of exercising every day is that you die healthier.   
   ---   
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