SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP33   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 12, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   After two days of no sunspots on August 3 and 4, solar activity resumed with   
   both sunspot number and solar flux rising into the 90s. Average daily sunspot   
   numbers rose from 10.7 in the last reporting week to 52 this week (August 4 to   
   10).  Both averages were suppressed by having a sunspot number of zero on the   
   last day of the old week and again on the first day of the most recent week.   
      
   Average daily solar flux rose from 72.1 to 87.9.  Average planetary A index   
   went from 13 to 14.6, and average mid-latitude A index from 11.9 to 13.7.   
      
   The latest solar flux prediction from USAF/NOAA shows 95 on August 12, 90 on   
   August 13 to 15, 95 on August 16 to 18, then 90 and 85 on August 19 and 20, 75   
   on August 21 to 26, 80 on August 27 through September 1, then 85, 95, 100 and   
   105 on September 2 to 5, 100 on September 6 to 9, 95 on September 10 to 13,   
   with flux values dropping to 75 on September 17 to 22 before rising again.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 12 and 13, 5 on August 14   
   and 15, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 16 to 19, 5 on August 20 to 23, 15 on   
   August 24 and 25, 5 on August 26 to 28, then 15, 25 and 18 on August 29 to 31,   
   15 on September 1 and 2, then 12, 8 and 5 on September 3 to 5, 12 on September   
   6 and 7, 8 on September 8, 5 on September 9 and 10 and 12 on September 11 and   
   12.   
      
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW sends this:   
      
   Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 12 to September 7, 2016   
      
   Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on August 26 and 27   
   Mostly quiet on August 12 to 14, 17 and 18, 22, September 7   
   Quiet to unsettled on August 15, 19, 23, 31, September 1 to 3, 6   
   Quiet to active on August 16, 20 and 21, 24 and 25, 28 to 30,   
   September 4 and 5   
   Active to disturbed on August (29 and 30)   
      
   Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 20 and 21, 23   
   and 24, 28 to 30, September 4 and 5   
      
   Parenthesis means lower probability of increased activity.   
      
   Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England sent this fascinating piece from New   
   Scientist about the US Air Force deploying micro-sats to release plasma into   
   the ionosphere.  This creates artificial clouds of ionization which should   
   improve HF propagation:   
      
   http://bit.ly/2bmCugb   
      
   Richard Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts worked HH2AA, call sign of   
   Radio Club D'Haiti, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti at 1552 UTC on August 9, 2016.    
   This was a 6 meter CW QSO.   
      
   15 minutes later it's confirmed on LOTW!!!   
      
   That is awesome and for the life of me can't figure out why it takes some   
   stations months to upload to LOTW?   
      
   I upload every day.   
      
   I believe the club station at HH2AA is an HF remote base station, and they   
   have devised some way to automatically send confirmations to LOTW, frequently   
   and in real time.   
      
   "Later in the day I worked Europe, nothing new but did work CT1HZE at 1827Z   
   and heard CS5BALG/B.   
      
   I also worked CO8LY on July 24th at 0021 on JT65 and again on CW on July 25 at   
   1447Z.  He also has a good QSL system.  Send to his manager EA7ADH.  Have   
   worked him on 40M thru 6M now.  Always get a card.   
      
   My station here is the ICOM IC-7700 (160 to 6, 200W), 7100 (160 to 70CM 100W),   
   Ameritron AL811H for 160 to 10M, Dipoles on HF bands, 5 el M2 6 meter Yagi at   
   40 ft., 10 el and 19 el on 2M and 70cm at 30 ft."   
      
   In 1967, the US government mis-interpreted a strong solar storm and thought   
   the Soviet Union was jamming all our radar.  Allegedly this took us to the   
   brink of Armageddon.   
      
   http://bit.ly/2aPNOP0   
      
   http://bit.ly/2bh7QQV   
      
   Thanks to Max White and David Moore for the above articles.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10 were 0, 36, 33, 63, 91, 72, and 69,   
   with a mean of 52.  10.7 cm flux was 76.3, 79.8, 83.1, 92.7, 96.4, 92.3, and   
   95, with a mean of 87.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 16, 14, 12,   
   12, 14, and 16, with a mean of 14.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17,   
   16, 13, 12, 9, 15, and 14 with a mean of 13.7.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
      
   ... A Smith & Wesson beats four aces.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)