SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP10   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 11, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot Cycle 24 continued its upward trend this week.  The average   
   daily sunspot number was more than double the value of the week   
   before, rising from 50.9 to 114.  Average daily solar flux rose 44%,   
   from 96.8 to 139.4.  All this week, through Tuesday, sunspot numbers   
   and solar flux kept rising and beating old numbers, and we had to   
   look further and further back into Cycle 23 to find comparable   
   conditions.   
      
   On Tuesday, March 8 the daily sunspot number was 137.  The last time   
   the daily sunspot number was higher than this was July 7, 2005, when   
   it was 149.  Twice this week the 10.7 cm receiver at Penticton was   
   overloaded, swamped by energy from a solar flare, and the daily   
   solar flux value had to be estimated.  On March 7 and 8 the noon   
   solar flux readings were 938.6 and 166.7, and they were corrected by   
   NOAA to estimated values of 153 and 155.  The estimated flux level   
   of 155 was the highest since July 23, 2004, when the solar flux was   
   165.   
      
   On Thursday, March 10 the sunspot number was 88 and solar flux was   
   131.3.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for March 11-14 is 130, 130, 125, 125, then 120   
   on March 15-18, 100 on March 19-21 then going below 100 until April   
   2.  Predicted planetary A index for March 11-13 is 18, 12, and 10,   
   then 5 on March 14-21, 7 on March 22-23, and 5 on March 24-26, then   
   7, 7, 19 and 7 on March 27-30.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions on March   
   11-14, quiet to unsettled March 15, and quiet March 16-17.   
      
   Last week's report of a South American 2-meter signal heard over   
   4,700 miles away in North Carolina provoked a number of expressions   
   of disbelief from some folks very knowledgeable about VHF   
   propagation.   
      
   After exchanging emails with the fellow on the South American end,   
   I'm not sure what happened.  There are spotting lists showing the   
   station on 10 meter FM that day instead of 10 meter FM, although our   
   South American friend says he was on 2 meters at the time the   
   transmission was heard.  There is also a bit of a language barrier   
   making some details unclear. One possibility is that the receiver in   
   North Carolina picked up a 2 meter signal from a downlink from a 10   
   meter remote base station, some distance away.   
      
   A new slightly revised report of recent smoothed sunspot numbers   
   along with predictions is out this week. Check the Preliminary   
   Report and Forecast at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1853.pdf and check page 10.   
   You can compare this with the last time the same table appeared, at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf and note the   
   slightly revised smoothed sunspot numbers from August, 2010 through   
   August 2011.  The numbers are all slightly lower.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington posted an exuberant   
   observation about the recent solar activity. He also wrote, "During   
   the ARRL SSB Contest, 15 meters was smokin' and I worked the first   
   European and African Stations on 10 meters since fall of 2004. The   
   High bands just took on a completely different character. It looks   
   as if this is the end of our long drought on the High Bands. W1ZR   
   could not have better timed his article in March's QST regarding   
   being ready for the expected surge."   
      
   Jaap Verheul, PA3DTR wrote to us from Zaltbommel, Netherlands about   
   recent conditions:  "I experienced good conditions now for about 5   
   days in a row, no wonder: now the solar flux is up and sunspots   
   1164, 1165, and 1166 are on the solar disk!   
      
   "I had much fun in the ARRL contest last weekend. 15 meters was a   
   thrill to work USA stations. But that isn't all. I even found 17   
   meters open to the USA after dark on Monday evening! I worked W1GUE   
   with 100 watts and a dipole on CW.  That has not happened for a long   
   time.   
      
   "I am very interested in propagation on 30 meters and I often check   
   this website: http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php. It shows a   
   recent high-resolution map of Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) for   
   3,000 kilometer radio signal paths. Today I found out that there is   
   no contour present anymore for 10 MHz in the northern hemisphere.   
   That doesn't mean that the band is all-open, but from my location   
   the chances of propagation paths over 3,000 kilometers is much   
   better thanks to the new solar cycle and springtime conditions   
   (equinox)."   
      
   I think instead of reflecting actual current MUF, the map is based   
   on the latest predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, which   
   is currently 43.   
      
   John Shew, N4QQ of Silver Spring, Maryland reported excellent   
   conditions during the ARRL SSB DX Contest last weekend on 10 meters.   
   He wrote, "While CQing on 10 meters from W3LPL's superb multi-op   
   contest station Sunday morning with the beam pointed SE around 1250z   
   to attract PYs and other South Americans, I was answered in quick   
   succession by JA6WJL, JA6WIF, and BV1EK, -- all S9 signals on the   
   long path. Another 10 minutes of CQs attracted no other long path   
   stations, but a check of DX putouts indicate that the band was open   
   long path until around 1330z."   
      
   You can get a nice view of the W3LPL antenna array by clicking on   
   http://snurl.com/26zqr4.  Click on "Bird's Eye" to get a detailed   
   view, zoom in, and click on the compass to see images from different   
   perspectives.  You can also expand the image to the left by clicking   
   on the left-arrow on the upper left corner of the picture.   
      
   Roger Harrison, VK2ZRH of Woollahra, New South Wales, Australia   
   noted the N4QQ comments recently about trans-equatorial propagation.   
   He wrote, "For the benefit of newcomers to TEP, I have two web pages   
   that each give a detailed introduction to afternoon and evening type   
   TEP, written over 2006-2007 and posted in 2007. You'll find them   
   here:   
      
   Afternoon TEP:   
   http://home.iprimus.com.au/toddemslie/aTEP-Harrison.htm   
      
   Evening TEP: http://home.iprimus.com.au/toddemslie/eTEP-Harrison.htm   
      
   "Also, the Australian IPS Radio  Space Services has a PDF on TEP   
   here:   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Educational/Other%20Topics/Radio%   
   0Communication/   
   Transequatorial.pdf   
      
   "During the 1970s, I worked for 7 years at IPS Radio and Space   
   Services. I was employed in the Low Latitude Research Section for   
   part of that time, working for Dr Leo McNamara (author of 'Radio   
   Amateurs Guide to the Ionosphere') on TEP. I also pursued my   
   interest in sporadic E, with the aid and encouragement of IPS   
   colleagues."   
      
   Pat Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas wrote: "March 3 I heard my   
   first LU on 6 meters since Aug 2005 (was an Es link to F2 the   
   weekend that Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans). The 5w LU7YS beacon   
   on 50.085 MHz was about 539 at 2215z.  The LU7YS op himself made   
   some TX and XE2 QSOs, but his CW signal had too much QSB on it here   
   for me to try a call.   
      
   "March 2 we had a lot of midday-early afternoon 6 meter Es to the   
   southeast, and there had been hope that would link into the F2   
   that's been creeping ever closer recently (YS, XE1) as the rising   
   solar flux and season get more favorable.  A rule-of-thumb here has   
   been solar flux of 120-130 is a good level for 6 meter LUs in   
   March-April.  There was no direct evidence of any Es involved in the   
   March 3 event, though there IS a lot of water in that direction for   
   a linking hop to land in.  March is statistically the worst month of   
   the year for VHF Es here so that linkage is far more common in April   
   as that season awakens.   
      
   "Now, one of my pet peeves regarding the liberal use of TE/TEP to   
   describe these modes:  Our daytime 6 meter paths to LU are usually   
   the result of a chordal F2 hop (no 1-hop ground reflection), exhibit   
   normal QSB, and are designated F2F2 (vs. F2-F2).  The after-dark   
   ('classical TE') is caused by a scatter mechanism in the F2 layer   
   and is distinctive in its multi-path and flutter sound.  One only   
   has to hear the same-path stations by each mode to appreciate the   
   difference.  (Much pioneer work on this was done in Cycle 19 with   
   ZE2JV documenting it in QST articles.)"   
      
   Bob Karpinski, WB8B of Clinton Township, Michigan sent in a report   
   about using low power on 12 and 17 meters: "With the solar flux   
   reaching 135, 12 meter propagation was unprecedented on March 6 with   
   a lot of DX activity and big signals. The band was already opening   
   into EU and AF around 1200z while ending with nice openings across   
   the Pacific and into Japan.   
      
   "Propagation was so exceptional on 12 meter CW that 11 DXCC   
   countries were worked using 1 watt of output power and (3) active   
   elements on a Mosley PRO67 yagi at 63 ft. The 1 watt QRPp contacts   
   included M0DHO (Great Britain), LA0DX (Norway), VO1HP (Canada),   
   PA1CC (Netherlands), 4Z4DX (Israel), G3RXP (Great Britain), GM3YTS   
   (Scotland), SV1CQN (Greece), GW3YDX (Wales) , EI6IZ (Ireland),   
   MI0BPB (Northern Ireland) and 6W2SC (Senegal). Additional 12 meter   
   CW contacts were made with SV2BOH (Greece), CO8LY (Cuba) and PA3DTR   
   (Netherlands) at the 5 watt level.   
      
   "Also, 17 meters has been providing excellent evening paths into the   
   northwest, especially on March 6, when I logged a CW QSO with KL7J   
   in Alaska using 1 watt QRPp around 2300z. His signal was a very   
   solid S9+30dB which ended my Sunday of contacts with 12 DXCC   
   countries using 1 watt of output power."   
      
   Thanks, Bob!   
      
   Mike Treister, W9NY reported: "Operating W9NY from Dune Acres   
   Indiana this weekend, I was absolutely astounded by the band   
   conditions on 15 meters (I only worked 15 meters for the ARRL SSB   
   contest). It was like the good old days. Signals from Europe were   
   often coming in 20 over 9, as were many from Japan. While running   
   about 100 JAs late Saturday afternoon with my TH7 aimed in that   
   direction I kept having stations call me from Europe and South   
   America off the side and back of the beam! I worked several European   
   and Japanese stations who were running only 5-10 watts (one British   
   station was running 3 watts), and they were all coming in Q5. I   
   received numerous signal reports that I was well over the customary   
   5 by 9. I slept Saturday night and got up at 6 AM Sunday to see what   
   was happening on 15, and was surprised to find the entire phone band   
   packed with DX stations. This was the most fun that I have had   
   during a contest in many years.   
      
   "With the solar flux reaching 135, 12 meter propagation was   
   unprecedented on 3/6 with allot of DX activity and big signals. The   
   band was already opening into EU and AF around 1200z and while   
   ending with nice openings across the Pacific and into Japan.   
      
   "Propagation was so exceptional on 12 meter CW that 11 DXCC   
   countries were worked using 1 watt of output power and (3) active   
   elements on a Mosley PRO67 yagi at 63 ft. The 1 watt QRPp contacts   
   included M0DHO (Great Britain), LA0DX (Norway), VO1HP (Canada),   
   PA1CC (Netherlands), 4Z4DX (Israel), G3RXP (Great Britain), GM3YTS   
   (Scotland), SV1CQN (Greece), GW3YDX (Wales) , EI6IZ (Ireland),   
   MI0BPB (Northern Ireland) and 6W2SC (Senegal). Additional 12 meter   
   CW contacts were made with SV2BOH (Greece), CO8LY (Cuba) and PA3DTR   
   (Netherlands) at the 5 watt level.   
      
   "Also, 17 meters has been providing excellent evening paths into the   
   N.W., especially on 3/6, when I logged a CW QSO with KL7J in Alaska   
   using 1 watt QRPp around 2300z. His signal was a very solid S9+30dB   
   which ended my Sunday of contacts with 12 DXCC countries using 1   
   watt of output power."   
      
   Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, UK sent an interesting article from   
   NASA about some early history of sunspot observation.  Read it at   
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/400yrs-spots.html.   
      
   Tim Goeppinger, K6GEP of Orange, California alerted us to a series   
   of comics published this week that feature solar activity.  From   
   March 7-10 the comic strip "Brewster Rockit"   
   (http://www.gocomics.com/brewsterrockit/2011/03/07/) is running the   
   series.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9 were 71, 104, 114, 118, 122,   
   137, and 132, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 120.9, 126.8,   
   134.6, 142.5, 153, 155, and 143.1, with a mean of 139.4. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 5, 10, 5, and 4, with a mean of   
   7.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 7, 4, 3, 7, 4, and 2,   
   with a mean of 5.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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