SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP23   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 3, 2016   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar indices barely changed over the past week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers rising from 25.3 to 33, and average daily solar flux dropping from 97   
   to 87.4.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index rose from 7.1 to 8.9, and average daily   
   mid-latitude A index rose from 7 to 9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 80 on June 3 to 7, 85 on June 8 to   
   10, 80 on June 11 to 17, 85 on June 18 to 21, 80 on June 22 to 26, 75 on June   
   27 through July 4, and 80 on July 5 to 14.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 35, 32, 15 and 8 on June 3 to 7, 5 on June   
   8 to 10, 12 on June 11 to 13, 8 on June 14 and 15, then 5, 15 and 10 on June   
   16 to 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 10, 12, 8, 20 and 12 on June 23 to 27, 5 on   
   June 28 and 29, then 8, 15, 20 and 15 on June 30 through July 3, then 5 on   
   July 4 to 7 and 12 on July 8 to 10 and 8 on July 11 and 12.   
      
   F. K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period   
   June 3 to 29, 2016:   
      
   Geomagnetic field will be:   
   Quiet on June 9, 20, 22.   
   Mostly Quiet on June 8, 15 to 17, 21, 23, 29.   
   Quiet to Unsettled on June 7, 10, 13 and 14, 28.   
   Quiet to Active on Jun 3 and 4, 5 and 6, 11 and 12, 19, 24 and 25,   
   26 and 27.   
   Active to Disturbed on June 18.   
      
   Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June (6-)7-8,   
   (14-)16-17, (26, 30)   
      
   Remarks:   
   - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.   
   - Reliability of predictions is slightly reduced.   
      
   Some interesting tools for examining sunspot data:   
      
   http://harvard.voxcharta.org/tag/sunspot-databases/   
      
   Also, a paper about the same:   
      
   http://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.00669.pdf   
      
   Joe, K1YOW of Harvard, Massachusetts wrote:   
      
   "I was wondering... for the month of May, almost every day, there was a good 6   
   meter SpE (sporadic-E) opening in Europe, yet here in North America, openings   
   were sparse.  When looking at the DX maps every day, there seemed to be a SpE   
   cloud somewhere over Europe -- sometimes over France, then Greece, then   
   Germany, then Eastern Russia, etc.  Yet, whatever is causing the SpE clouds to   
   appear over Europe does not seem to be happening here in North America.   
      
   Is there any insight why SpE clouds would form over one area so frequently and   
   with such good strength and not over other areas?  If it was random, then I   
   would expect to see SpE clouds now and then everywhere over the planet.   
      
   Europe seems to be the hot spot of 6 meter activity these days for whatever   
   reasons."   
      
   I don't know, but I will check.  It seems that they are sporadic, but not   
   random with any even distribution, but I don't think that answer is very   
   helpful.   
      
   Tracking our 3 month average of daily sunspot numbers, remember that the peak   
   in the current cycle was centered on February and March of 2014, at 146.4 and   
   148.2.   
      
   For the past year that moving average was 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6,   
   58.5, 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3 and 43.1.  So that last number sums all the sunspot   
   numbers from March 1 to May 31, which is 3,964, and divides by the number of   
   days, which is 92, yielding a smoothed sunspot number of approximately   
   43.08696.   
      
   A few days ago there was a big drop in the predicted solar flux numbers over   
   the next month and a half.  The daily forecast comes to us from    
   tp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ . If you look at the solar flux   
   forecasts issued on May 28 and compare the numbers to those issued on May 29,   
   you will see the predicted average over the 7 days from May 31 to June 6 shift   
   from 91.4 down to 75.  Another area to inspect are the forecasts issued on May   
   29 and May 30 for the period from June 7 through June 14.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1 were 30, 19, 31, 25, 56, 40, and 30,   
   with a mean of 33. 10.7 cm flux was 91.7, 90.4, 87.7, 83, 86.2, 86.6, and 86,   
   with a mean of 87.4.  Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 10, 14, 7, 11, 10,   
   and 6, with a mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 12, 13, 8,   
   9, 10, and 7 with a mean of 9.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   Always Mount a Scratch Monkey   
      
   ... I'm in shape ... round's a shape isn't it?   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)