SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP09   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 4, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity is rising again, but average sunspot numbers and   
   solar flux are down compared with last week. This week the average   
   daily sunspot number declined over 14 points to 50.9, and average   
   daily solar flux was off 7 points to 96.8. Average daily planetary A   
   index rose from 6.1 to 9, and the average mid-latitude A index was   
   about the same, declining from 5.4 to 5.1.   
      
   You can see daily sunspot and solar flux numbers, updated after   
   0230z at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt.   
   Geomagnetic indices are updated 8 times per day at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. Our weekly data   
   reports at the bottom of this bulletin run Thursday through   
   Wednesday, so at the above links you can see that yesterday   
   (Thursday, March 3) the planetary A index dropped from 17 to 12 and   
   the daily sunspot number went from 83 to 71.   
      
   The most active day for geomagnetic indexes was March 1, with a   
   planetary A index of 31. The planetary K index rose as high as 6 on   
   that day. Polar propagation paths were disturbed, with the College A   
   index (measured near Fairbanks, Alaska) for March 1-3 at 53, 43 and   
   23.   
      
   NOAA and USAF predict solar flux of 120 on March 4-11, 110 on March   
   12-15, 105 on March 16-17, and 100 on March 18-21. Planetary A index   
   is forecast at 12 on March 4-5, and 5 on March 6-13, 7 on March   
   14-15, and 5 on March 16-21.   
      
   You can get the daily NOAA/USAF prediction for solar flux and   
   planetary A index at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. The forecast   
   is usually updated by 2130z daily.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled geomagnetic activity   
   March 4-5, quiet to unsettled March 6, quiet March 7, quiet to   
   unsettled March 8-9, and quiet again on March 10.   
      
   It looks like good conditions for the ARRL International SSB DX   
   Contest this weekend, or at least much more interesting than the   
   past few years, due to increased solar activity. Along with this   
   comes the greater risk of geomagnetic disruption from solar flares,   
   coronal mass ejections and gusts of solar wind. I received some   
   comments from 80 and 160 meter DXers during the recent minimum   
   noting that they loved the absence of solar activity, because   
   everything was so quiet and stable.   
      
   For this year's DX contest we are seeing sunspot numbers in the   
   range of 20-100, but for the first ten days of March 2010 the   
   average sunspot number was 20.1, for 2009 it was 2.4, 2008 it was   
   3.7, 2007 it was 14.9 and 2006 it was 14.1.   
      
   The monthly average of sunspot numbers for December 2010 through   
   February 2011 was 22, 32.2 and 53.5, reflecting the rise in solar   
   activity. The three-month moving average of sunspot numbers centered   
   on January (an average of all daily sunspot numbers for December   
   2010 through February 2011) was 35.3. The three-month moving average   
   of daily sunspot numbers centered on each month of 2010 was 22.4,   
   25.7, 22.3, 18.5, 16.4, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33, 35.6, 31, and 30.1.   
   The average centered on January 2011 is back up to the level it was   
   in November 2010, 35.6.   
      
   Big news this week was about the solar model explaining the deep   
   solar minimum we've just experienced. Thanks to all the readers who   
   sent emails about this. See the story at   
   http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/03/110302131859.htm,   
   http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7336/extref/nature09786-s1.pdf,   
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solar-cycle23.html   
   and http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/522578main_conveyorbelt.jpg.   
      
   Johnathon Ballard, KI4UKF lives in Stokes County, North Carolina,   
   less than 10 miles south of the Virginia state line. On Wednesday,   
   March 2 at 1655z (just before noon local time) he heard Claudio   
   Costa, LW2ECC (Argentina) calling CQ on 2 meter FM, on 144.48 MHz.   
   KI4UKF was using a Moxon wire antenna tacked to a wall, and said the   
   signal was steady for several minutes at about S6, then faded away.   
   He emailed Claudio, who confirmed the transmission. Claudio was   
   using three 5/8 wave verticals and 160 watts.   
      
   John Shew, N4QQ of Silver Spring, Maryland was in Curacao for the   
   ARRL DX CW Contest and operated at PJ2T. He had some interesting   
   observations about trans-equatorial propagation on 6 meters into   
   South America.   
      
   He wrote, "Thursday evening around 8 PM (0000z February 19) W9VA and   
   I decided to check 6 meters looking south for TE propagation. The   
   equipment at PJ2T is a Yaesu FT2000 and a M2 5-element at 70 feet   
   with a clear shot over water to South America. Much to our joy the   
   band was full of LU beacons at S9 strength. At 0015z we tuned up to   
   50.110 MHz and I called CQ using the call PJ2/N4QQ. Over the next 15   
   minutes I worked 16 stations in 14 grid squares. Signal strengths   
   were S7-S9 plus. Stations included:   
      
   PY4LH GG68   PY4OY GG78   LU4FW FF97   PP5XX GG53   LU2NI FG72   
   LU1DVT GF11  CE3SX FF46   LU5CAB GF05  PY2COY GG44  CE3RR FF46   
   PU2TVI GG66  ZP5RPO GG14  LU5FCV FF98  LU1DMA GF05  PY3NZ GG40   
   LU5FF FF99   
      
   "We kinda worked the band empty after 15 minutes but it was still   
   open, but there were no more stations calling us so we moved back   
   over to the HF bands.   
      
   "It was a great thrill for me to experience TE propagation for the   
   first time after reading about it many times in the ARRL VHF column   
   over the last 50 years. Signals sounded slightly hollow, but were   
   quite strong with no obvious QSB. The band appeared to open to all   
   areas at once, with no obvious flashlight effect, experienced during   
   E-skip. I plotted the grid squares I worked and they fall in a band   
   about 600 miles deep between 2700 and 3300 miles to the south,   
   crossing the entire South American continent. The plotted skip zone   
   appears to slightly skew from southwest to northeast, with stations   
   to the west farther south than those to the east.   
      
   "As I have no experience with TE I don't know if this propagation is   
   common for this time of year or if it occurs throughout the year or   
   if it is enhanced by recent solar events. (Solar flux peaked   
   somewhere between 115-125 during our time in PJ2.) With our   
   attention focused on the DX contest we didn't have a lot of time to   
   check 6 meters, but the few days we did check it appeared open to   
   the south from 0000 to at least 0200z.   
      
   "It was my impression that TE is a very reliable mode of   
   communication to the south from the southern Caribbean this time of   
   year in the early evening. I have been checking 6 meter spots for   
   the last week and the PYs and LUs have been having a field day   
   beaming north in the late afternoon and early evening, with numerous   
   contacts with KP4, TI, FM, YV, P40, etc. PY5XX and others have also   
   worked EA and CT in Southern Europe and EA8 in Africa. In fact, I   
   think now I understand one reason why 6 meters is so popular with   
   the southern PYs and LUs. From PJ2 it appears there are only 5   
   countries we can work on TE -- PY, LU, CX, ZP, and CE. I worked all   
   but one in less than 15 minutes. Maybe 4 or 5 more countries can be   
   worked from PJ2 via TE if one counts islands with DXpeditions like   
   Juan Fernandez, Trindade, etc. On the other hand PYs and LUs see in   
   their regular TE skip zone maybe 25 countries with active 6 meter   
   populations; the countries include the northern coastal South   
   American countries, much of Central America, the Yucatan, and most   
   of the Caribbean from Puerto Rico south."   
      
   Thanks, John for a fascinating report!   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2 were 23, 31, 49, 44,   
   54, 72, and 83, with a mean of 50.9. 10.7 cm flux was 88.9, 88.2,   
   90.2, 90.4, 95.8, 110.5 and 113.4 with a mean of 96.8. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 3, 4, 2, 3, 31 and 17 with a mean of 9.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 18 and 12 with   
   a mean of 5.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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