SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP49   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 4, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar indicators dropped this week, with average daily sunspot numbers at 41.6   
   from November 26 through December 2, down from 62.7 in the previous seven days.   
      
   Average daily solar flux dropped 18 points, from 115.2 to 97.2. A week ago the   
   predicted average daily solar flux for the same period was 111.4, more than 14   
   points above the actual outcome.   
      
   Average daily planetary A index was 9.9, while average daily mid-latitude A   
   index was 6.6, more than double the two figures for the previous week, 4.1 and   
   3.1 respectively. But there were no days   
   with high geomagnetic activity. The most was on Monday and Tuesday, with   
   planetary A index at 19 and 14 indicating moderately unsettled conditions.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 95 on December 4, 90 on December 5-8, 95 on December   
   9-10, 105 on December 11, 115 on December 12-13, then 110, 105 and 100 on   
   December 14-16, 105 on December 17-18, 110 on   
   December 19-20, 105 on December 21, and 100 on December 22-26. Following this   
   coming week the lowest predicted solar flux is on just one day, at 95 on   
   December 27, five days after the Winter Solstice.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 4-5, then 18, 25, 20 and 15 on   
   December 6-9, then 8 on December 10-15, then 10 and 8 on December 16-17, 5 on   
   December 18-23 and 8 on December 24-26. The next period of unsettled to active   
   geomagnetic conditions is December 28, with a predicted planetary A index of   
   25. The planetary A index doesn't settle down to 5 again until mid-January.   
      
   OK1HH predicts geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled December 4-5,   
   active to disturbed December 6-8, quiet on December 9, quiet to active   
   December 10, mostly quiet December 11, quiet to   
   unsettled December 12-14, quiet to active December 15, mostly quiet December   
   16, quiet on December 17-23, mostly quiet December 24-25, quiet to active   
   December 26-27, mostly quiet December 28, active to disturbed December 29, and   
   back to quiet again on December 30.   
      
   He expects an increase in solar wind on December (5-7), 8-10, (11-12, 16-20,)   
   26-27, and (28-29). He is less certain about heightened activity on the dates   
   in parenthesis.   
      
   Unfortunately, we received no reports on conditions during last weekend's CQ   
   World-Wide CW DX contest. This weekend is the ARRL 160 Meter contest. This is   
   a CW only event, and lasts 42 hours with no time limit from 2200 UTC Friday   
   (today) to 1600 UTC on Sunday, December 4-6.   
      
   See http://www.arrl.org/160-meter for complete details and rules.   
      
   With low predicted geomagnetic activity over the weekend, 160 meters should be   
   in good shape for the contest.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number for the month of November was 61.9. For August,   
   September and October the monthly averages were 61.7, 72.5, and 59.6.   
      
   Our three month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, (September 1 through   
   November 30) was 64.6. For the 3 month periods ending in June through October   
   the averages were 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5 and 64.5. At the cycle's peak, for   
   periods ending in March and April of 2014, the 3 month moving averages were   
   146.4 and 148.2. It's been a pretty steady decrease since then, with the   
   averages dropping below 100 at the beginning of this year.   
      
   Don Anderson, N7EF of Kent, Washington sends this video about a 2018 space   
   mission all the way to the Sun:  http://on.wsj.com/1l5FZHr   
      
   Andrew Gudas, N7TP of Amargosa Valley, Nevada sends along this story about   
   scary superflares: http://bit.ly/21AsfVJ   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security   
   warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 26 through December 2 were 56, 48, 36, 47, 51,   
   27, and 26, with a mean of 41.6. 10.7 cm flux was 103.9, 98.9, 96.6, 95.5,   
   95.7, 94.6, and 95.3, with a mean of 97.2. Estimated planetary A indices were   
   3, 7, 8, 9, 19, 14, and 9, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A   
   indices were 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, and 7, with a mean of 6.6.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   "So let me ask you a question about this brave new world of yours. When you've   
   killed all the bad guys, and when it's all perfect, and just and fair, and   
   when you have finally got it exactly the way you want it, what are you going   
   to do with the people like you? The trouble makers. How are you going to   
   protect your glorious revolution from the next one?"   
   - The twelfth Doctor   
      
   ... The golden years are when actions creak louder than words.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)