SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP48   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 30, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ARRL HQ was closed on Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which   
   delayed this bulletin by several days. This week we return to the normal   
   schedule, with a preview of the propagation bulletin in the ARRL Letter on   
   Thursday, and the full bulletin on Friday.   
      
   Solar activity increased during the last reporting week, November 19-25 with   
   average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 43.3 to 62.7, and average daily   
   solar flux rising from 105.5 to 115.2.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 95 on November 30, 100 on December 1, 105 on December   
   2-3, 110 on December 4-11, 105 on December 12, 100 on December 13-17, 105 on   
   December 18-19 and 110 on December 20-26.   
   Solar flux then peaks at 115 on December 27-31.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 on November 30, 25 on December 1, 15 on   
   December 2, 8 on December 3-5, then 12, 20 and 18 on December 6-8, then 8, 12,   
   10 and 8 on December 9-12, 5 on December 13-15, 8 on December 16, 5 on   
   December 17-21, then 15, 10 and 8 on December 22-24 and 5 on December 25-31.   
      
   At 2317 UTC on November 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a   
   geomagnetic disturbance warning. High speed solar wind stream from a coronal   
   hole is expected to cause a minor geomagnetic   
   disturbance on December 1 and 2 with a planetary K index of 5 possible.   
      
   OK1MGW expects active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on November 30   
   through December 1, quiet to active conditions December 2-5, active to   
   disturbed again on December 6, quiet to active December 7-8, quiet to   
   unsettled December 9, quiet to active December 10, quiet to unsettled December   
   11-12, mostly quiet December 13, quiet to active December 14-15, mostly quiet   
   December 16, and quiet on December 17-22.   
      
   On November 19 Don Michalski, W9IXG wrote about a common problem: lousy   
   propagation on 75 meters affecting regional nets:   
      
   "Tad, this may be a broken record to you but what is going on with the lousy   
   band conditions for the past 5 months?  I've never seen such poor propagation   
   on HF, low bands, since I became a Ham in   
   1957.   
      
   "I run the Badger Weather Net every morning on 3984 KHz and 85 percent of the   
   time the band is just dead from 5-7 AM.  Zip.  It gets a little better from 7   
   AM Central time.  At times, the solar numbers seem to be good but that doesn't   
   make any difference.  I've lost confidence in the SFI, A, K index.  I had   
   thought, wished, the time change would help but not so.  Your thoughts?"   
      
   The problem is related to low solar activity. Often the low sunspot number or   
   solar flux is not high enough to support NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence   
   Skywave) propagation on 75-80 meters.   
      
   Ideally stations in the network would be using antennas that beam radiation   
   straight up, and the ionosphere would reflect signals straight back to   
   everyone else in the region.   
      
   Here are some maps you can check to verify this, in real time:   
      
   http://www.hamqsl.com/solar1.html   
      
   http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5   
      
   http://hfpack.com/propagation/#sanfrancisco   
      
   http://www.kg7hq.wetnet.net/node/55   
      
   http://www.dxmaps.com/mufmap.html#USAFoF2   
      
   When the ionosphere over your area does not support propagation at 4 MHz, then   
   you will have this problem on 75-80 meters.   
      
   Julio Medina, NP3CW from San Juan, Puerto Rico sent in more reports of his 6   
   meter operations.   
      
   He uses a 6 element Cushcraft Yagi up 35 feet, with an IC706 MkII G and   
   IC746Pro. He reports:   
      
   "My 6 meter activity on Nov 15, 2015 was: LU7VB 2117 UTC SSB FF51 in   
   Patagonia, LW4DVA 2123 UTC SSB GF05 in Buenos Aires, LU6DLR 2128 UTC SSB GF05   
   Hector, TY2AC 2148 UTC SSB JJ16 BENIN, new country on 6 meters for me, TY2AC   
   2154 UTC CW JJ16 BENIN, new on CW for 6 meters.   
      
   "I forgot to tell you that on September 17, 2015 I worked: LU4FPZ 2356 UTC CW   
   FF97, PY2EDY 2359 UTC CW GG66.   
      
   "SEPT 18, 2015 0003 PY3FJ CW GG40, 0005 UTC PY2KP CW GG66, 0010 UTC BM6GJL   
   TAIWAN CW PL02.  Probably the first Puerto Rico to Taiwan contact on 6 meters,   
   as told to me by Jose KP4EIT who has more than 30 years on VHF, UHF and 6   
   meters DX in Puerto Rico.   
      
   "This contact was confirmed with QSL and in LoTW. Is a new country for me on 6   
   meter band.   
      
   "0015 UTC CX9AU CW GF05, 0017 UTC PY5KC CW GG56, 0027 UTC LU6HFQ CW, 2033 UTC   
   HC8/G8OFQ SSB EI49."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.   
   For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt   
   ://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security   
   warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 19 through 25 were 51, 52, 59, 76, 77, 66, and   
   58, with a mean of 62.7. 10.7 cm flux was 108.1, 111, 122.2, 122.9, 119.7,   
   113.2, and 109, with a mean of 115.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 6,   
   4, 3, 3, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were   
   6, 6, 3, 3, 2, 1, and 1, with a mean of 3.1.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   "So let me ask you a question about this brave new world of yours. When you've   
   killed all the bad guys, and when it's all perfect, and just and fair, and   
   when you have finally got it exactly the way you want it, what are you going   
   to do with the people like you? The trouble makers. How are you going to   
   protect your glorious revolution from the next one?"   
   - The twelfth Doctor   
      
   ... Hydrogen bombs are great party gags.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)