SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP07   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 18, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   A dramatic surge in solar activity is underway, with a level of   
   sunspot numbers and solar flux not seen since 2005-2006.  Tuesday's   
   sunspot number of 100 has not been equaled or exceeded since April   
   6, 2006 when it was 105.  On Wednesday the solar flux was 114.1, and   
   the last time it was that high or higher was September 15, 2005 at   
   119.4.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week by more than 25 points   
   to 69.9, and average daily solar flux was up 20 points to 103.5.   
      
   NOAA/USAF predicts solar flux at 110 on February 18-19, 105 on   
   February 20, 100 on February 21, and 105 on February 22-24.   
   Planetary A index is predicted at 25 and 12 on February 18-19, and 5   
   on February 20-28, then rising to 7, 10, 10 and 7 on March 1-4.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts active conditions on February   
   18, unsettled to active February 19, unsettled February 20, quiet to   
   unsettled February 21, and quiet conditions February 22-24.   
      
   This weekend is the ARRL International DX CW Contest, and Bob   
   Marston, K6TW notes that a geomagnetic storm is predicted for   
   Friday, just before the start of the contest.  This is due to two   
   coronal mass ejections, one on February 13 at 1735z, and the other   
   on February 15 at 0156z.  A CME hit Earth's magnetic field at 0100z   
   today, February 18, but was not as strong as expected.  It is   
   possible we may be spared major geo-storms.  However, there is a new   
   alert from Solar Storm Watch of an expected CME direct hit at 0900z   
   on February 18.  The planetary K index on February 18 at 0300, 0600   
   and 0900z was 3, 4 and 5.   
      
   Most of the activity this week has been from large sunspot group   
   1158, which will soon rotate out of view over the Sun's western   
   limb.  More centrally positioned is sunspot 1161, and there seems to   
   be a new sunspot emerging above it.  It is probably significant that   
   USAF/NOAA revised the solar flux estimate upward for the near term   
   between Wednesday's and Thursday's prediction.   
      
   K6TW introduced us to a resource for updates on solar activity,   
   http://www.solarstormwatch.com, and specifically a Twitter resource,   
   which you can read without a Twitter account at   
   http://twitter.com/solarstormwatch.   
      
   Fred Honnold, KH7Y of Ocean View, Hawaii (south part of the big   
   island of Hawaii) has a report of some 10 meter longpath to Europe   
   propagation on February 14.   
      
   "I wanted to let you know about some excellent long path QSO last   
   night from 0923 till 1055.  The bands were still alive but it was   
   1AM here and I just quit.  Signal levels on 15 meters from the KW   
   stations were S8 or so on 12 meters the signals were still strong so   
   after working about 100 stations on 12 meters I moved to 10 meters.   
   I worked many European stations with signals S1 to S5.  The best   
   signals were from EA1DR S9+ and S57S very loud."   
      
   You can see the spots by going to DX Sherlock at   
   http://www.vhfdx.info/spots.  Just select 28 MHz, February 14 from   
   1000z to 1059z, containing the callsign KH7Y, set maximum number of   
   returned QSOs at 100, then Submit Query.   
      
   An article on the ARRL web site about sunspot 1158 and this week's   
   activity mentions that "According to NASA, the Sun will reach its   
   next maximum this year, give or take one year."   
      
   I don't think this is true, as the latest prediction for the next   
   solar maximum is in 2013.  If you check a recent Preliminary Report   
   and Forecast at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf,   
   look on page 10 and note that the highest smoothed sunspot number in   
   the near future is 90, predicted for February through July 2013.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16 were 38, 54, 63, 84, 90,   
   100, and 60, with a mean of 69.9. 10.7 cm flux was 91.4, 91.2, 95.6,   
   106.8, 112.6, 112.8 and 114.1 with a mean of 103.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 4, 4, 2, 10, 5 and 2 with a mean of 4.3.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 4 and 1 with a   
   mean of 3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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