SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 6, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity increased over last week, with the average daily sunspot number   
   rising from 77.6 to 90.3, and average daily solar flux from 110.9 to 118.3.   
   These comparisons contrast October 29 through November 4 with the previous   
   seven days.   
      
   A high speed solar wind caused aurora on November 3-4 and the high planetary A   
   index of 32 and 33 on those days.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 6, 25 on November 7-8, then 15   
   and 12 on November 9-10, 8 on November 11-12, then 12, 20, 5, 8 and 12 on   
   November 13-17, 5 on November 18-21, then 10, 5, 8 and 12 on November 22-25,   
   and 10 on November 26-27. Planetary A index then jumps to 50 and 40 on   
   November 30 and December 1, when the same region causing aurora the past few   
   days rotates back into view.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 110 on November 6, 115 on November 7-8, 120 on   
   November 9-12, 105 and 110 on November 13-14, 115 on November 15-16, then 120,   
   115 and 110 on November 17-19, and 105 on November 20-24. Flux values dip   
   below 100 on November 27 through December 8, reaching a low of 85 on November   
   30 through December 5.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent his geomagnetic   
   forecast, and he expects the geomagnetic field to be quiet to unsettled on   
   November 6, active to disturbed November 7-8, quiet to active November 9,   
   quiet to unsettled November 10, quiet to active November 11, quiet on November   
   12, quiet to unsettled November 13, quiet to active November 14, quiet on   
   November 15, quiet to active November 16, quiet to unsettled November 17,   
   mostly quiet November 18-19, quiet to unsettled November 20, mostly quiet   
   November 21, quiet on November 22, quiet to unsettled November 23, mostly   
   quiet November 24, quiet on November 25, quiet to active November 26, quiet to   
   unsettled November 27, mostly quiet November 28-29, active to disturbed   
   November 30, and quiet to active December 1-2.   
      
   OK1HH expects increases in solar wind on November 7-8, 10-11, 15, 18, and 29.   
   There us a chance of increased solar wind, although less likely, on November   
   19-21 and 30.   
      
   The average daily sunspot number for October 2015 was 59.6, the lowest since   
   September 2013, when it was 55. February 2012 was even lower, at 50.1.   
      
   For our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, the highest average   
   for the current solar cycle was centered on February and March 2014, when it   
   was 146.4 and 148.2. The 3-month averages   
   centered on December 2014 through September 2015 were 107.8, 98.2, 78.1, 68.2,   
   72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5 and 64.5. The September number is the average of   
   all daily sunspot numbers from August 1   
   through October 31.   
      
   This weekend is ARRL CW Sweepstakes and the high geomagnetic activity expected   
   for Saturday and Sunday could be a problem. Predicted planetary A index for   
   November 7-8 is 25 on both days.   
      
   At 2320 UTC on November 5, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a   
   geomagnetic disturbance warning: "The partial halo coronal mass ejection   
   associated with the 4 November M3.7 flare has an Earth-directed component. It   
   is likely to impact Earth late on UT day Nov 06/2200 or thereabout. As a   
   result, minor to major geomagnetic storms could occur on UT day 07 Nov   
   depending on IMF Bz conditions."   
      
   Here is info on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz: http://www   
   spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-interplanetary-magnetic-field-imf   
      
   David Moore sent this article about the U.S. government plans for dealing with   
   problematic space weather:   
      
   http://www.space.com/30986-united-states-space-weather-plan.html   
      
   David also sent this link to a high definition video of the Sun:   
      
   http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/4k-nasa-video-lets-see-sun-new-light/   
      
   Robert Wood, W5AJ of Midland, Texas noted that sunspot 2443 is close to the   
   Sun's equator, and we both got to wondering what this means regarding the   
   current sunspot cycle projection. I couldn't remember.   
      
   A check of butterfly diagrams shows us that early in a solar cycle, sunspots   
   appear further north or south of the solar equator, and gradually appear close   
   to the equator as the cycle progresses:   
      
   http://bit.ly/1SvnU0a   
      
   So this sunspot is probably typical of spots appearing after the peak of the   
   solar cycle.   
      
   A sign that the solar cycle is transitioning to the next cycle is when the   
   magnetic signature of sunspots begins to change. In the most recent   
   magnetogram, we can see the north magnetic polarization as the white   
   splotches, and south as black:   
      
   http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_mag/512/   
      
   You can click that image to see it with higher resolution.   
      
   This image is in real time, so by the time you see it in the future, the image   
   may have changed significantly.   
      
   Here is an article from nine years ago about sunspot polarization.   
      
   http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_mag/512/   
      
   As the solar cycle transitions from one to the next, that polarization will   
   change, with an increasing number of new cycle spots gradually replacing the   
   old. But don't expect this until five years from now.   
      
   Mike Treister, W9NY who operates from Chicago, Illinois and another station on   
   a sand dune in Dune Acres, Indiana at the southern tip of Lake Michigan filed   
   this report:   
      
   "I was very surprised at the excellent conditions on 10 and 15 meters during   
   the CQ WW SSB contest. From my QTH in Dune Acres, Indiana, 10 meters was chock   
   full of activity most of the morning with many European stations well over S9   
   all the way from 28.3 up to 29 MHz. I stayed near the top and had no problem   
   running stations. The band was really packed, just like the good ole days.   
      
   "But the real surprise was 15 meters which remained open for nearly the entire   
   day. While I had my TH7 pointed at Europe I was getting calls from Hawaii,   
   Alaska, the Middle East, South America, etc. Late in the afternoon, with my   
   beam pointed toward Asia, I was running lots of strong Japanese stations, and   
   also got calls from China, India, Indonesia, Siberia, the Philippines etc.   
   etc. And while doing this I was still getting calls from basically all over   
   the world off the sides and back of my beam. Heard some flutter echo   
   suggesting long path propagation at times.   
      
   "Also, in the early morning hours, 40 meters was terrific.   
      
   "What an unexpected fun weekend!   
      
   "Perhaps conditions are frequently good, like this, and there is just very   
   little activity!"   
      
   Yes, I agree.  And a big HF contest brings out the activity to reveal   
   propagation paths otherwise unheard.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://   
   rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security   
   warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 29 through November 4 were 101, 88, 73, 88, 94,   
   95, and 93, with a mean of 90.3. 10.7 cm flux was 112.9, 112.1, 118.5, 124.3,   
   122, 124.2, and 113.8, with a mean of 118.3. Estimated planetary A indices   
   were 5, 9, 6, 11, 7, 32, and 33, with a mean of 14.7. Estimated mid-latitude A   
   indices were 4, 6, 6, 9, 5, 23, and 31, with a mean of 12.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   ... If you cross this field, do it in 9 seconds. The bull can cross in 10.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)