SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP44   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 30, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar flux and sunspot numbers barely budged last week. Average daily sunspot   
   numbers went from 75 in the previous seven days to 77.6 in the week ending   
   October 28. Average daily solar flux went from 118.2 to 110.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 110 on October 30, 105 on October 31 and November 1,   
   100 on November 2, 95 on November 3-4, 90 on November 5, 85 on November 6-8,   
   90 on November 9, 95 on November 10-11, then 100, 105 and 110 on November   
   12-14, 115 on November 15-16, then 120, 115 and 110 on November 17-19, and 105   
   on November 20-24. Flux values then drop to 85 on November 30 through December   
   5, and next rise above 100 a few days later.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12 on October 30-31, 8 on November 1-2, 45 on   
   November 3-4, then 20, 15 and 12 on November 5-7, then 20, 25, 20 and 10 on   
   November 8-11, and 8, 12 and 20 on November   
   12-14, 5, 8 and 12 on November 15-17, then down to 5 on November 18-21.   
      
   Geomagnetic conditions remain unsettled, then on November 30 through December   
   2 planetary A index is predicted to rise to 50, 40, and 25, an echo of the   
   high values on November 3-5. In fact, this activity would be from the same   
   area of the Sun a whole solar rotation later, which takes about 27-28 days.   
      
   Here is a geomagnetic outlook from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech   
   Propagation Interest Group.   
      
   He expects the geomagnetic field to be quiet to unsettled October 30, quiet to   
   active October 31 through November 3, active to disturbed November 4-5, quiet   
   to unsettled November 6, quiet to active November 7-9, quiet to unsettled   
   November 10, quiet to active November 11-13, mostly quiet November 14, quiet   
   November 15-16, mostly quiet November 17-24 and quiet to unsettled November 25.   
      
   Petr predicts increased solar wind on November 1-5 and 11-13.   
      
   Dave Bono, K6OAK of Fremont, California sent this space weather story from the   
   web:   
      
   http://wapo.st/1LExZWi   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote this:   
      
   "Remarkably good conditions on 10 meters during the CQ WW SSB contest last   
   weekend. The higher solar flux and generally quiet geomagnetic field helped   
   northern paths. A CME impact on October 24 sparked no geomagnetic storming.   
   Spaceweather.com noted 'Solar wind speeds abruptly jumped to more than 500   
   km/s as the CME passed by. The shockwave rattled Earth's magnetic field and   
   caused electrical currents to flow through the ground of Norway's Lofoten   
   islands. However, that's about all that happened. A full-fledged geomagnetic   
   storm did not erupt, and few auroras have been reported. Why was the CME so   
   ineffective? Its internal magnetic field did not connect to Earth's magnetic   
   field; the mismatch mitigated the CME's impact.'   
      
   "JAs were well over S-9 Saturday afternoon of the contest to eastern Kansas.   
   Europeans were very loud Sunday morning. The opening Sunday morning extended   
   deep into Europe and even Asia. I worked Cyprus (P33W) and Crete (SV9GPV) for   
   new ones with just 5 watts while mobile on 10."   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, Kentucky sent this report:   
      
   "October 19 began a very noticeable increase in the HF MUF with not much   
   happening on 12 and 10 meters before then. I worked G3KML running 2 watts on   
   both 12 and 10 meters in and out of the noise   
   that day, but many other signals were S9.   
      
   "Besides many German and Dutch stations on 10 meter phone on the October 20, I   
   was called by RA1WP and R2DEV both S9.   
      
   "The K index climbed to 3 at 1500Z on the October 21, but the UK was still   
   booming in here on 10 meters from 1339-1413Z. The first good northern European   
   opening on 10 meters occurred on October 23 with loud EW, SM, and OH stations   
   logged.   
      
   "The CQWW phone conditions were surprisingly good considering the SFI being   
   just above 100. I moved to 10 meters Saturday at 1220Z about 50 minutes past   
   sunrise just as it was opening to Europe with 9A, OK, I, SP, and EA stations   
   the first to come through. At 1250Z Germany was loud and I started to run EU   
   stations. VU2PAI called at 1252Z with a S9 signal.   
      
   "Scandinavian signals were also loud at that time. The first 10 meter Russian   
   was a RA1 at 1303Z, but I never managed to work many Russians on 10 the whole   
   weekend despite some spotty loud signals. Six EA6 stations were logged on 10,   
   by far the best activity from the Balearic Islands in a contest for me.   
   Northern Europe was spotty with a gap from 1320-1346Z with none logged, but   
   central and western Europe were loud.   
      
   "Stations all over Europe except for northern Scandinavia and just a couple of   
   UK were logged between 1400-1500Z. Just after 1500Z northern Europe faded. In   
   the afternoon signals to the south were   
   generally quite good except for stations from Puerto Rico (closer) who were   
   skipping over my area. On Sunday, 10 meters was spotty for a good part of   
   early and mid-morning. At 1250Z, only a few very southern Europeans were   
   workable, TK, A7, and HZ were logged. I was not able to run stations well   
   until about 1520Z when there was a tremendous opening to northern Europe and   
   Germany. By 1700Z, there were still many loud mainly southern Europeans, but I   
   was not able to run many.   
      
   "I operated very sparingly on the low bands. Several have mentioned that 160   
   was poor which it certainly was around 0100Z Sunday. 75 was in pretty good   
   shape to Europe Friday evening around 0200-0300Z, but about 1/3 of the   
   stations I could hear, could not hear me.   
      
   "40 had good propagation around 0130-0200Z too, but was a sea of QRM.  At   
   0000Z Sunday, 40 was not nearly as good to Europe and you could barely tell   
   there was a contest on 75 meters at 0100Z, with very weak Europeans except for   
   EA and also heard some good strength signals from Zone 33 (EF8, CN).   
      
   20 meters featured some good propagation to Europe at the start to EI, LX, OK,   
   I, LZ, UR, EA, and F as well as TF and OH8 and a few Zone 18 Asiatic Russians.   
   From AF, Zone 33 was very loud and ZS and D4 were also logged. Skip went long   
   early to the south with the northern 2/3 of Zone 8 gone into the skip zone by   
   around 0020Z. 20 was open to South America, but some signals were very   
   fluttery and weaker than what they might have been another night. Whenever the   
   band was open well to Europe, it was very crowded. Signals were pretty loud   
   most of the day with the strongest European signals around sunrise and again   
   from 1800-2000Z.   
      
   "Both afternoons VU2s were in at S9 in the 1800Z hour.   
      
   "15 as well was extremely crowded when open to Europe. Sunday morning the band   
   was open very well to all of Europe before 1145Z. A92 Bahrain and Kazakhstan   
   answered my CQs with loud signals as well as northern Europe and Russians from   
   Zones 16 and 17. At 1900Z, the western European big guns were still loud. The   
   northern Caribbean also was skipping over me more than expected, but skip was   
   short at 1900Z Sunday allowing even VP9 to be logged. JAs were loud at 2000Z   
   which is 0500 JST Sunday. Sunday seemed to be the better day on 15."   
      
   Jim Smith, K3RTU of Aston, Pennsylvania wrote on October 26:   
      
   "Been quite a while since I last wrote you about my backpack QRP activities!   
   This Summer was so stinking hot that I didn't get out very much, especially   
   during July and August, but with the cool down in September and October here   
   in southeast Pennsylvania, I've been quite active. I've been out two to four   
   times a week to my favorite state park. Last week the 'Gods of Propagation'   
   were pretty good to me, but today was spectacular!   
      
   "I managed to work 3DA0NJ in Swaziland southeast Africa with my Icom IC-703   
   running 10 watts SSB and Buddistick vertical. I think I was the first one to   
   answer his CQ at about 1939 UTC on 18.129 MHz. I only received a 2x2 signal   
   report from Nico, but after a few tries he got all my info. Nico is a very   
   patient man with darn good ears and a very big antenna to say the least. I   
   follow your propagation predictions religiously and they have really been   
   helpful as today's results prove. Now that the temperature is cooling down I   
   hope that the propagation continues to warm up even though we are on the   
   downside of the solar cycle!"   
      
   As you can see from this week's reports, even with the solar cycle downturn,   
   there is still lots of great propagation.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the   
   author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For   
   an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://   
   rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security   
   warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 22 through 28 were 94, 91, 74, 63, 72, 78, and 71,   
   with a mean of 77.6. 10.7 cm flux was 120.5, 114.9, 106.3, 106.4, 106.2,   
   110.1, and 112.2, with a mean of 110.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6,   
   7, 11, 8, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were   
   4, 5, 10, 7, 2, 3, and 1, with a mean of 4.6.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   ... I am not lazy; I just have a strong relaxation drive.   
   ---   
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