SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP06   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 11, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Seven different sunspot groups were visible over the past week.  The   
   high sunspot number in the past seven days was 71 on Tuesday, and   
   the average daily sunspot number more than doubled, rising over 24   
   points to 44.3.  Average daily solar flux was up nearly three points   
   to 83.5.   
      
   71 is the highest sunspot number since May 5, 2010 when it was 77.   
   Coincidentally, both February 8, 2010 and February 8, 2011 had a   
   sunspot number of 71, and between those dates it was never higher   
   except for 77 on May 5.   
      
   The NOAA/USAF prediction for solar flux for the near term improved   
   considerably from what was reported in yesterday's ARRL Letter.   
   Solar flux is predicted at 90 on February 11-18, then for February   
   19-25, 88, 88, 86, 84, 84, 80 and 80.  They predict a constant   
   planetary A index of 5 through the end of the month, then 7, 10, 10   
   and 7 on March 1-4.   
      
   Even though NOAA sees a constant and quiet geomagnetic environment   
   through the end of the month, Geophysical Institute Prague sees it a   
   little differently for February 11-17.  They predict quiet on   
   February 11-12, quiet to unsettled February 13, unsettled February   
   14-16, and quiet to unsettled February 17.   
      
   There are a couple of sobering items concerning progress of solar   
   Cycle 24 and predictions for the peak, now centered around February   
   through July in 2013.   
      
   The latest predicted smoothed sunspot numbers are in this week's   
   Preliminary Report and Forecast #1849 at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf.   
      
   Dick Wiltgen, K8RBW of Chicago sent an article from NASA on the   
   latest solar cycle prediction. Read it at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   Note they are using International Sunspot Numbers, which are lower   
   than the Boulder numbers we use in this bulletin, and reported in   
   the Preliminary Report and Forecast.  Also, at this stage in Cycle   
   24, predictions are more reliable.  Among others, the article cites   
   recent work by Joan Feynman, daughter of the remarkable Nobel Prize   
   winning physicist Richard Feynman.   
      
   Ray Perrin, VE3FN of Ottawa, Ontario sent in a very interesting   
   report of propagation at the start of high geomagnetic activity on   
   February 4.   
      
   Ray wrote, "Just before 2000Z on Feb 4, I was tuning across 15   
   meters and was surprised to hear a strong signal from a Finnish   
   station on CW.  I tuned up the band a bit and heard another Finnish   
   station -- Marko OH3XR -- working a station in Ohio.  I was   
   surprised that I was able to hear the Ohio station as it is very   
   short skip from my QTH (Ottawa) in eastern Ontario (grid FN25).  But   
   I noticed the signal from the Ohio station was not pure T9.  It also   
   had some slight hiss which I normally associate with auroral   
   propagation.   
      
   "I then worked Marko OH3XR and he reported that there was a large   
   aurora in progress.  This seemed to confirm that I had indeed heard   
   the Ohio station via aurora -- besides, I believe the path was much   
   too short to have been F Layer.  Marko's signal was pure T9 and I am   
   unsure as to the mechanism that propagated our signals.  My first   
   assumption was that it was Auroral E.  However, I believe that   
   F-layer propagation can be enhanced after an aurora -- primarily on   
   north - south paths.  But my guess is that it was Auroral E.   
      
   "After our QSO, I checked the NOAA Space Weather Now site.  It was   
   still showing that the auroral zone was fairly quiet and the K index   
   was low.  But a little later, it showed an active auroral zone, a K   
   index of 6, and that there was a G1 storm in progress."   
      
   It is interesting to look at geomagnetic indices on that date,   
   particularly planetary A and K index, at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt.   
      
   In last week's bulletin (see http://snurl.com/20vmqo) was a report   
   from Tamas, HA5PT and he sent along some links, including a sound   
   file to augment his report.  See   
   http://www.ha5hrk.hu/files/ut7uj.mp3 and   
   http://www.ha5hrk.hu/files/ut7uj_first_dash.jpg.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9 were 32, 45, 26, 41, 28,   
   71, and 67, with a mean of 44.3. 10.7 cm flux was 80.4, 82.1, 81,   
   80.2, 82.3, 89.7 and 88.7 with a mean of 83.5. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 1, 21, 13, 11, 3, 4 and 2 with a mean of 7.9. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 0, 12, 11, 8, 2, 3 and 1 with a mean of   
   5.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)