SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP32   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 7, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity increased somewhat over this week's reporting period, July 30   
   through August 5, compared to the previous seven days.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 47.9 to 70.3, while average daily   
   solar flux was up from 96.4 to 104.5.  Average daily mid-latitude and   
   planetary A index remained about the same, both   
   around 10.   
      
   At 2348 UTC on August 5, Australia's Space Weather Services issued a   
   geomagnetic disturbance warning.  A high speed stream of solar wind from a   
   coronal hole is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with   
   possibility of magnetic storms over high latitude regions on August 7, then   
   settling down to stable conditions by late August 8.   
      
   Earth is entering the debris field from Comet Swift-Tuttle, and the resulting   
   Perseid meteor shower should peak August 12 to 13.  This offers the   
   possibility of VHF meteor scatter communication on 6 and 2 meters, and   
   possible enhancement of the ionosphere for upper HF bands as well.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 115 on August 7, 120 on August 8 and   
   9, 115 on August 10 and 11, 110 on August 12 and 13, 90 on August 14 and 15,   
   95 on August 16 to 19, 90 on August 20 and 21, 95 on August 22 and 23, 100 on   
   August 24 and 25, 105 on August 26 to 28 and 100 on August 29 through   
   September 2.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 23, 15 and 24 on August 7 to 9, then 20, 12 and   
   8 on August 10 to 12, then 5 on August 13 to 17, then 12, 10, 8 and 12 on   
   August 18 to 21, then 10, 5 and 8 on August 22 to 24, 5 on August 25 and 26,   
   then 12, 18, 25, 12 and 10 on August 27 to 31, then 8, 5, 12, 18 and 8 on   
   September 1 to 5, and 5 on September 6 to 13.   
      
   OK1MGW predicts geomagnetic activity will be active to disturbed August 7 and   
   8, quiet to active August 9, quiet to unsettled August 10 and 11, mostly quiet   
   August 12 and 13, quiet on August 14 and 15, quiet to unsettled August 16 and   
   17, quiet to active August 18, quiet to unsettled August 19 to 22, mostly   
   quiet August 23, quiet to unsettled August 24, quiet to active August 25 and   
   26, active to disturbed August 27, quiet August 28, quiet to unsettled August   
   29 and 30, mostly quiet August 31 and September 1, and quiet to active   
   September 2.   
      
   OK1MGW expects increases in solar wind on August 7 to 9 and 25 to 28.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for July 2015 were 68.5.  This is down from 77.4   
   in June and 83 in May.   
      
   For our three-month moving averages, the peak for the current cycle was in   
   2014, when the averages centered on February and March were 146.4 and 148.2.    
   The three-month moving averages for the remainder of 2014 were all above 100.    
   The averages centered on January through June 2015 were 98.2, 78.1, 68.2,   
   72.4, 77.7, and 76.3.  So the last figure, centered on June averages all the   
   daily sunspot numbers from May 1 through July 31.   
      
   We had no reports from readers, except K7HV in Seattle mentioned to me that he   
   observes reliable paths to Europe on 20 meters after local sunset.   
      
   N2EIO, David Jennings of Ladys Island, South Carolina (between Charleston and   
   Savannah, Georgia) asked about how to use the numbers we report in this   
   bulletin, and we like to see the solar flux and the sunspot numbers high, and   
   the geomagnetic A and K index low.  At the bottom of this bulletin are some   
   resources, including a link to the K9LA web site.  From there you can download   
   W6ELprop for doing your own predictions from your location.  So if we see that   
   the predicted solar flux is around 110, W6ELprop says from his location at   
   32.44 degrees north, 80.64 degrees west a path to Hungary for today on 20   
   meters would be best around 2100 to 0100 UTC, with another possible opening   
   around 0430 to 0530 UTC.  40 meters would be best around 0000 UTC to 0500 UTC.   
      
   Checking paths to Costa Rica, 40 meters should be open all day and night, with   
   strongest signals from 0030 to 1030 UTC, and 20 meters having the best path at   
   2130 to 0700 UTC.  Check out the projections from your location.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the security   
   warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress download.  I've had   
   better luck with Firefox than IE.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 30 through August 5 were 83, 71, 70, 51, 62, 68, and   
   87, with a mean of 70.3.  10.7 cm flux was 102, 100.7, 102.9, 101.5, 105.6,   
   106.8, and 112.2, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12,   
   14, 10, 11, 6, 7, and 6, with a mean of 9.4.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices   
   were 12, 16, 9, 13, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 10.7.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   ... A typical American eats 28 pigs in his/her lifetime.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)