SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031   
   ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP31   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31  ARLP031   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 31, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP031   
   ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   At 0132 UTC on July 30 the Australian Space Forecast Center issued a   
   geomagnetic disturbance warning, saying a high speed solar wind from a   
   recurring coronal hole is expected to raise geomagnetic activity levels to   
   minor storms on July 31 and August 1. They predict quiet to minor storm levels   
   on July 31 and minor storm declining to unsettled conditions on August 1.   
      
   Solar activity currently remains in the doldrums, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers rising just 4.5 points to 47.9 during the July 23 to period from the   
   prior week.   
      
   Average daily solar flux over the same periods rose just 1.5 points to 96.4.   
      
   When I look at the solar disc displayed at http://spaceweather.com/ I count   
   six numbered sunspot groups, but they are not magnetically complex, and the   
   types of radiation we need to energize our ionosphere is weak.   
      
   The most active geomagnetic day was July 23, when the planetary A index was 23   
   and the mid-latitude A index was 21. That day there was a mild geomagnetic   
   storm caused by a coronal mass ejection that did not hit earth directly.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 105 on July 31 through August 2, 110 on August 3 to 5,   
   115 on August 6, 110 on August 7, 100 on August 8 and 9, 95 on August 10 to   
   13, then 90 and 85 on August 14 and 15, and 100 on August 16 and 17. Solar   
   flux peaks at 115 on August 28 to 31, then drops below 100 after September 5.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 18 on July 31, 24 on August 1, then 16, 12 and   
   8 on August 2 to 4, then 5, 8 and 20 on August 5 to 7, then 15 on August 8 and   
   9, and 8 on August 10, 5 on August 11 to 15, 10 on August 16, 5 on August 17   
   and 18, then 15 and 10 on August 19 and 20, and 5 on August 21 to 23.   
      
   OK1MGW predicts the geomagnetic field will be active to disturbed on July 31   
   and August 1, quiet to active August 2, mostly quiet August 3 to 5, quiet to   
   active August 6, active to disturbed August 7 and 8, quiet to active August 9,   
   quiet to unsettled August 10 and 11, quiet August 12 to 14, mostly quiet   
   August 15, quiet to unsettled August 16, mostly quiet August 17, quiet to   
   active August 18, quiet to unsettled August 19 to 22, and mostly quiet August   
   23 to 26.   
      
   He expects increased solar wind on July 31 through August 3, and again on   
   August 6 to 9.   
      
   Rich Camp, WA7VGN of Las Vegas, Nevada wanted to be sure meteor showers also   
   occur during daylight. Yes, they do, and you can make contacts via meteor   
   scatter day and night.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK passed along a good resource for meteor scatter, Ping Jockey   
   Central:   
      
   http://www.pingjockey.net/cgi-bin/pingtalk   
      
   Jon mentioned this will be a great tool for checking activity during the   
   upcoming Perseids Meteor shower, which is August 11 to 14 this year.   
      
   Jon also passed along some sporadic-E news:   
      
   "The summer 2015 North America Sporadic E skip season is winding down. Usually   
   the peak period is around the summer solstice through the first week to 10   
   days of July.   
      
   Some late season July Es continued. On July 21, PR8ZX GI64 in Brazil worked   
   into the Midwest on 6 meters and was spotted 599 by K2DRH at 2239z. This was   
   multi-hop Es to the geomagnetic equator.   
      
   A strong 6 meter opening between Arizona, California and Washington State to   
   Japan took place July 24 and 25.   
      
   On the July 26, CO8LY FL20 worked into the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states   
   via double hop Es. Spotted by K0GU DN70 and NW0W EM47 until 1650z. I logged   
   him on 50.108 MHz at 1758z."   
      
   Jon also passed along this late news: "July 30, J69MV, VP2ETE, FG8OJ and KV4FZ   
   were in to IA, MO, OK and W4 around 1630z via double hop E-skip on 50 MHz."   
      
   Check this map for live lightning detection across North America:   
      
   http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30   
      
   This was passed on by Dick Bingham, W7WKR who lives way off the grid at   
   Stehekin, Washington, which is at the northwest end of Lake Chelan.   
      
   He advises making sure Strikes, Detectors Used and Sound are turned on for the   
   lightning app.   
      
   Also check these pages:   
      
   http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=2   
      
   http://www.usatoa.com/   
      
   Pierre Desjardins, VE2PID of Sherbrooke, Quebec asked about the predicted   
   International Sunspot Number at http://1.usa.gov/1HOVlDP and what the numbers   
   in parenthesis mean.   
      
   The numbers above the parenthesis are predicted smoothed international sunspot   
   numbers, which use a 13-month average.  A zero means there is zero uncertainty   
   about the number, because all of the data used to calculate this smoothed   
   number are known values. But as we move into the future, there is more   
   uncertainty. For the latest month, we already know half the data used to   
   calculate the average, but the other half of the data is predicted.  So the   
   higher numbers in parenthesis indicate greater uncertainty.   
      
   Rob Steenburgh, AD0IU who works as a space weather forecaster at NOAA said the   
   predictions here are from the McNish-Lincoln technique, from a paper published   
   in 1949.  The method is described here:   
      
   http://1.usa.gov/1MBc4l8   
      
   Rob is checking with a colleague to find out exactly what the numbers   
   represent and perhaps the scale used.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http   
   //bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the security   
   warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress download. I've had   
   better luck with Firefox than IE.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 23 through 29 were 27, 54, 41, 38, 53, 56, and 66,   
   with a mean of 47.9.  10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 92.2, 94, 97, 100.1, 101.1, and   
   100.7, with a mean of 96.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 7, 9, 8,   
   11, 9, and 5, with a mean of 10.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 21,   
   6, 9, 9, 13, 9, and 7, with a mean of 10.6.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   ... We are all too ready to imitate the base and the depraved.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)