SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP27   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 6, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Conditions over Field Day weekend turned out to be not bad at all. The   
   expected geomagnetic upset never happened.  On June 25 and 26, the Thursday   
   and Friday before Field Day, the predicted planetary A index for the June 27   
   and 28 was 45 and 60, really bad conditions. The actual planetary A index on   
   those dates was 9 and 13, and the mid-latitude A index was 8 and 12, nice   
   moderate numbers.   
      
   Average solar flux over June 25 through July 1 was 100.7, down from 130.8 over   
   the previous seven days.  Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 71.6 to   
   35.9.   
      
   There were no new sunspots on June 17 to 21, one new spot on June 22, none on   
   June 23 to 27, two new sunspots on June 28, a new sunspot on June 29 and again   
   on June 30, and two new sunspots on July 2.  On July 1 there were 3 numbered   
   sunspot groups and 5 on July 2.  NOAA/USAF predicts geomagnetic activity at   
   quiet levels on July 3, quiet to unsettled July 4 and unsettled to minor storm   
   levels on July 5.   
      
   The latest solar flux prediction has 115 on July 3 to 5, 120 on July 6 to 9,   
   125 on July 10, 130 on July 11 to 19, then 115, 110 and 105 on July 20 to 22,   
   100 on July 23 to 26, 105 on July 27 through August 1, then flux values rise   
   to 130 after August 6.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 5, 8, 25, 15, and 8 on July 3 to 7, then 5   
   on July 8 to 10, then 18, 12 and 8 on July 11 to 13, then 5 on July 14 to 17,   
   8 on July 18 and 19, 5 on July 20 to 25, 8 on July 26, 5 on July 27 through   
   August 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on August 2 to 4 and 8 on August 5 and 6.   
      
   Franz Janda, OK1HH, predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled   
   July 3 and 4, active to disturbed July 5, quiet to active July 6, quiet to   
   unsettled July 7, mostly quiet July 8 to 10, quiet to active July 11 and 12,   
   quiet to unsettled July 13 and 14, quiet on July 15, mostly quiet July 16 and   
   17, quiet to unsettled July 18, quiet to active July 19, quiet to unsettled   
   July 20 and 21, quiet July 22 and 23, and mostly quiet July 24 and 25.  Franz   
   expects increases in solar wind on July 5 and 6, July 10 to 12 and July 20 to   
   25.   
      
   Dave Olean, K1WHS of Lebanon, Maine wrote "I missed the big aurora in the   
   early evening on Monday night June 23.  I knew it was happening, but had   
   company and could not break away.  I finally did   
   get away just about 0100 UT and there was six meter Es and shortly afterwards,   
   I started hearing auroral buzz on several stations."   
      
   Later he wrote, "I worked all sorts of 50 MHz aurora out into the far Midwest   
   on June 22-23 aurora.  In between the auroral buzz, I could also work several   
   stations via 50 MHz auroral E out to the   
   Seattle area with K7EK in CM97.   
      
   I also worked VE5UF and VE6EME via auroral Es.  It was interesting to look at   
   the signals on my panadaptor.  You could pick out the auroral Es signals from   
   the plain auroral signals by their width on the screen!  Later on, around   
   0500z, I tried really hard to work two KL7s, but alas, they could not hear   
   me.  I definitely heard them very weakly and with an auroral Es note, but I   
   guess the path geometry was less than optimum.  They could not pull me out.    
   The W7 and VE auroral Es was 5x9!   
      
   One interesting contact on 50 MHz was an auroral sounding QSO with N5DG near   
   Houston, Texas.  I have never worked that far via the buzz route.  Ed, N5DG   
   said he also copied me with a raspy auroral note as well.  Just before   
   midnight, signals started to appear on 144 MHz. I had missed the earlier   
   session, so was anxious to see if the aurora would come back later.  It did,   
   and I worked a few stations on 144 MHz for about half an hour.  I had to   
   retrain myself in auroral techniques as it has been a long time for me since   
   there was a good aurora on 144.  My quad Yagi array was too sharp, and I was   
   constantly turning the beam to peak signals.   
      
   I worked N4QWZ in Tennessee with 59+ signals.  He was barely audible when I   
   first heard him with my beam at 320 degrees.  K1HTV in FM18 was worked early   
   on with weak signals too at 0355Z, but later I peaked him up to 59+ by turning   
   the beam more to the west.  Some of my beam headings were as far south as 285   
   degrees!  That is almost due west!  I also worked several stations out in the   
   Chicago area and Wisconsin, but I am afraid that the activity level was low   
   due to it being a late week night.  Chicago peaked at 308 degrees.   
      
   After 144 MHz died around 0430, I went back to 50 MHz looking for more Auroral   
   Es.  The KL7s were heard after 0500Z.  I hung around until 0700 looking for   
   more DX to KL7, but nothing materialized."   
      
   Check out the pictures on Dave's listing at QRZ.com, especially his stack of   
   antennas.   
      
   Rich Zwirko, of Amissville, Virginia (who K1WHS mentioned) reports: "June 29,   
   the day after the ARRL Field Day, produced some interesting Es openings on 50   
   MHz.  The day started with UT1FG/MM pounding into my FM18ap QTH from water   
   grid FM92.  He was in the K1HTV log at 1250Z.  Less than 10 minutes later I   
   worked Yuri again as he passed into another new grid, GM02.  Six meter regular   
   CT1HZE was worked at 1848Z, followed by C6AUX and CN8KD a few minutes later.    
   UT1FG/MM was worked in yet another new grid, GM03, at 1913Z. At 2007Z I worked   
   EA9IB in IM85, not having worked Pedro on 6 meters for over 15 years.  Back in   
   1993 the K1HTV contact with EH9IB (the call he was assigned back then) was the   
   first ever USA to EA9 QSO on record on 50 MHz.   
      
   As June 29 progressed, at 2116Z UT1FG/MM was worked again, now in grid GM13,   
   the 4th new grid for me today on the Magic Band.  In the last hour of the UTC   
   day other DX stations worked included PJ5A, J69MD, VP2ETE and J69DS.   
      
   UTC June 30 started off with a bang.  With the MUF over 150 MHz just SW of my   
   FM18ap QTH, 2 meter stations northeast of me in W1, W2 and W3 land were   
   working into a number of southern states.  A cloud over northeast Tennessee   
   produced enough ionization for my only 144 MHz Es QSO when I worked WA4ZZW in   
   EM64 in Alabama."   
      
   David Moore sent this link, to a piece about a spectral slicing satellite   
   revealing the anatomy of a solar flare: https://shar.es/1qwz6G .   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "I worked C6AUX at 1509z and PJ5A at 1921z on 50 MHz   
   June 28 from the Kansas City Veterans Administration Parking lot.  This was   
   via sporadic E.  C6AUX was loud at times, PJ5A not as strong."   
      
   Jon says he works at the VA hospital part time in the Emergency Department,   
   and when he wasn't busy on Sunday he took some time to get on six meters.  The   
   area he operated from has a clear shot to   
   the Southeast across the Blue River Valley.  He pressed a 5/8 wave 2 meter   
   antenna into 50 MHz service, where it operates as a 1/4 wave vertical.  You   
   can see a picture at http://bit.ly/1C64dbx . (This link does not work for me   
   with Internet Explorer, but only Firefox for some reason).   
      
   Jon also wrote, "KI0I also worked C6AUX while mobile June 28 from EM28 on 6.    
   He used a homemade J-Pole fishing rod antenna on his truck.  He also logged   
   6Y5WJ."   
      
   On July 2 Jon wrote: "June 30 and July 1 - JW7QIA Svalbard made numerous   
   contacts on 6 meters to North America.  He worked C6AUX for the first Bahamas   
   to Svalbard 50 MHz contact.   
      
   Svalbard is near the North Pole and not in the mid-latitude Es zone. What is   
   the propagation mechanism to North America?  Perhaps Aurora Es on to   
   mid-latitude sporadic Es."   
      
   This just in:  The World Data Center Sunspot Index and Long Term Solar   
   Observations from the Royal University of Belgium has finally transitioned to   
   a new International Sunspot Number system, and has completed extensive   
   revisions to the sunspot record, going back centuries.   
      
   You can read about it here:   
      
   http://www.sidc.be/   
      
   http://www.sidc.be/press/01/welcome.html   
      
   http://www.sidc.be/silso/taxonomy/term/1   
      
   http://www.sidc.be/silso/news008   
      
   The numbers used in this bulletin are the Boulder sunspot numbers, and will   
   not be affected.   
      
   And finally, at the end of June it is time to look at our 3-month moving   
   average of daily (Boulder) sunspot numbers.  The latest data is centered on   
   May 2015, and includes all daily sunspot numbers from April 1 through June   
   30.  The numbers for January through May 2015 are 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4 and   
   77.7.  The cycle peaked during the periods centered on February and March 2014   
   when the moving averages were 146.4 and 148.2.  The data centered on February   
   2014 included all daily sunspot numbers from January 1 through March 31.  The   
   average centered on March 2014 included all daily sunspot numbers from   
   February 1 through April 30.  This shifting 3-month average smooths the   
   numbers, making it easier to identify shifts in the solar cycle.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical   
   Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an   
   explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr   
   .org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of past propagation   
   bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A   
   index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http://bit.ly/1IBXtnG and   
   http://bit.ly/1KQGbRm .   
      
   Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the security   
   warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress download.  I've had   
   better luck with Firefox than IE.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas   
   locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are   
   at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 25 through July 1 were 33, 28, 25, 39, 36, 41, and   
   49, with a mean of 35.9.  10.7 cm flux was 101.8, 101.2, 97.3, 97.3, 97.1,   
   100.8, and 109.6, with a mean of 100.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 33,   
   10, 9, 13, 6, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices   
   were 19, 9, 8, 12, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 9.7.   
      
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   ... I _DO_ know everything. I just can't remember most of it.   
   ---   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)