SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017   
   ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP17   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17  ARLP017   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 24, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP017   
   ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity perked up this week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers rising from 65.6 in the previous seven days to 120.9 in the   
   April 16-22 period.   
      
   Average daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 150.4 over the same   
   period.   
      
   The day with the most geomagnetic activity was April 16, when the   
   mid-latitude A index was 28, planetary A index was 43, and the high   
   latitude college A index in Alaska was 57. These are high numbers!   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 135 and 130 on April   
   24-25, 125 on April 26 through May 1, 130 on May 2-5, 135 and 140 on   
   May 6-7, 145 on May 8-9, 140 on May 10, 135 on May 11-16 and then a   
   jump to 150 on May 17-18 before declining to 125 on May 23.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on April 24-25, 8 on April   
   26-27, 10 on April 28, 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5 on May 3-5, 8   
   on May 6-8, 5 on May 9-11, then 8, 15, 20, 12, 8 and 12 on May   
   12-17, and 5 on May 18-19.   
      
   > From April 16-22 there was one new sunspot region appearing each   
   day, except for April 21 when there were two.   
      
   If you check the solar flux prediction archive at   
   http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=files&   
   =326dd41340bab 1066cf91d13df36b8fd   
   (click on "Download This File") you can see how dramatically the   
   prediction for the next few days changed recently. The forecasters   
   pulled back on their estimates for higher solar flux.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent his weekly geomagnetic prediction, and he   
   sees quiet to active conditions April 24, active to disturbed April   
   25, quiet on April 26, quiet to active April 27, quiet to unsettled   
   April 28, disturbed April 29, active to disturbed April 30 through   
   May 1, quiet to active May 2, mostly quiet May 3-6, active to   
   disturbed May 7-8, quiet to active May 9, mostly quiet May 10, quiet   
   on May 11, active to disturbed May 12, disturbed May 13-14, quiet to   
   active May 15, quiet to active May 16-18, and mostly quiet May   
   19-20.   
      
   OK1HH says that increases in solar wind are mostly unpredictable,   
   but he expects increases on April 24, May 3-5, May 15-18, and May   
   20.   
      
   On Sunday, April 19 Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West   
   Virginia wrote: "The high solar wind essentially closed 15M and up   
   for a couple of days late last week except for SA, back to near   
   normal now. I easily worked HS0ZCW on 12M SSB today at 1517Z and a   
   few loud southern EU. 10 never really opened to EU, but EA8DAZ was   
   S9+20 dB."   
      
   On April 23, Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas wrote: "10 meters was good to   
   the South Pacific the afternoon of April 23. FW5JJ was quite loud to   
   the Midwest USA around 2200z on 28.029 MHz. I worked him with 50   
   watts while parked from my mobile. K index was 0.   
      
   "Last Saturday April 18 there was strong early season sporadic-E on   
   6 meters. I worked W7GJ MT and KE8FD UT around 2145z on 50 MHz via   
   Es.  K7TNT WY had a 'pipeline' to CE2AWW for 2 hours. No copy on   
   CE2AWW in KS.  I had to work Saturday night shift, but saw many   
   people spotted FK8CP via Es link to TEP that evening."   
      
   Thanks, Jon.   
      
   I believe his 10 meter mobile antenna is one of those shortened CB   
   whips on the roof of his car.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and   
   planetary A index are at   
   http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=files&   
   =326dd41340bab 1066cf91d13df36b8fd   
   and   
   http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=files&   
   =be2a0a69fb639 2907dc3d9a017dcace1   
   . Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and view in   
   spreadsheet format.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 16 through 22 were 85, 93, 114, 142, 125,   
   153, and 134, with a mean of 120.9. 10.7 cm flux was 150.2, 149.6,   
   147.6, 151.7, 149.6, 153.8, and 150.3, with a mean of 150.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 43, 25, 13, 9, 10, 22, and 11,   
   with a mean of 19. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 28, 20, 10,   
   9, 9, 18, and 9, with a mean of 14.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)