SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015   
   ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP15   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15  ARLP015   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  April 10, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP015   
   ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity continues to weaken.  Average daily sunspot numbers   
   dropped 27.8 points to 50.1 on April 2 to 8, compared to the previous   
   seven days.  Average daily solar flux declined 17.3 points to 118.4   
   over the same period.   
      
   The latest prediction has solar flux at 115 on April 10 to 16, 110   
   on April 17, 145 on April 18 and 19, 135 on April 20, 130 on April   
   21 and 22, 125 on April 23, 120 on April 24, and 125 on April 25 and   
   26.  Solar flux goes down to 115 on April 30 through May 2, then   
   rises to 145 on May 7 to 10.   
      
   The same prediction has planetary A index at 15 and 8 on April 10   
   and 11, 5 on April 12 to 16, 12 on April 17, 20 on April 18 and 19,   
   12 on April 20 and 21, 8 on April 22 to 24, 25 on April 25, 29 on   
   April 26 and 27, then 15, 12, 18 and 12 on April 28 through May 1,   
   and 8 on May 2 and 3.   
      
   These predictions are revised daily, and come from 45-day forecasts   
   at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ . I am also now   
   making available my archives of these predictions, with planetary A   
   index at   
   http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=filest   
   be2a0a69fb6392 907dc3d9a017dcace1   
   and solar flux at   
   http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=filest   
   326dd41340bab1 066cf91d13df36b8fd .   
   These are Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, and if you don't have that   
   program, you can download a free Excel Viewer at   
   http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=10 .   
      
   I hope to update these as often as once daily. You will see how the   
   solar flux forecasts have been weakening over time.   
      
   OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be mostly quiet April 10   
   to 12, active to disturbed April 13, disturbed April 14, active to   
   disturbed April 15, quiet to active April 16, active to disturbed   
   April 17, quiet to unsettled April 18, quiet to active April 19,   
   quiet on April 20, quiet to unsettled April 21, mostly quiet April   
   22, quiet to unsettled April 23, mostly quiet April 24, quiet to   
   active April 25 and 26, quiet April 27, mostly quiet April 28,   
   active to disturbed April 29, and quiet to unsettled April 30   
   through May 1.   
      
   At 2346 UTC on April 8, Australia's IPS Radio and Space Services   
   issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for April 9 and 10, due to   
   a CME and solar wind from a coronal hole.  Geomagnetic conditions   
   may be at active levels over the two days.   
      
   The Japan International CW DX Contest is this weekend. Check it out   
   at http://jidx.org/ .   
      
   Rich Zwirko, K1HTV wrote, "Despite the relatively low solar flux   
   number in the low 100's there is still life in the higher HF bands.   
   In the past few days conditions to deep Asia have been excellent. On   
   Tuesday morning April 7th, with 100 Watts and a wire antenna from my   
   VA QTH, I worked HS0LSE and heard E21EJC, both in Thailand on 12   
   meter CW. I moved to 15 meters and in less than an hour, with 100   
   watts and a triband yagi I was able to work:   
      
   CW  - V85TL - Brunei   
   SSB - HS1JNB - Thailand   
   SSB - AT150ITU - India (special call)   
   CW  - HS3XVP - Thailand   
   SSB - HS0ZIN - Thailand   
   SSB - HS0ZLE - Thailand   
   SSB - VU2DED - India   
      
   Other stations heard coming through included 9M2MSL, DU1/JA3FJE,   
   XU7TZG on SSB and XV5HS on RTTY. The polar path was great between   
   1530 and 1630Z that day. The next morning, April 8th, I was only   
   able to get down to the shack for a half hour. Between 1400 and   
   1430Z I worked three more stations in Thailand, E21EJC on 12M as   
   well as HS4ROI and HS0ZCW on 15M SSB. Conditions were so good that   
   CO2IR in Cuba, running QRP 10 Watts, worked HS0ZCW in Thailand.   
   Later that afternoon I was able to work all 6 continents in 30   
   minutes!   
      
   As UTC April 9th started, at 0001Z on 20M CW I snagged JT1AA/5 plus   
   a number of Asiatic Russian stations. Fifteen hours later JT1AA/5 in   
   Mongolia with a booming signal was worked again, this time on 15   
   meters.   
      
   Around the vernal equinox, despite the low SFI numbers, with   
   relatively low 'A' and 'K' indexes, conditions over the polar routes   
   can be great.   
      
   Enjoy the DX while the conditions are good as we are now on the   
   downward slope of this solar cycle."   
      
   On April 8, Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI wrote: "Don't know if you have   
   seen this yet, but in case you haven't, it's some new research that   
   suggests that the sun has 'seasons' of about two years that affect   
   the activity within a solar cycle:   
      
   http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/15037/sun-experiences-season   
   l-changes-new- research-finds   
      
   Ted Leaf, K6HI reported a similar article:   
      
   http://earthsky.org/space/scientists-report-seasonal-variability-on-sun   
      
   I also found this:   
      
   http://www.dailycamera.com/news/boulder/ci_27861091/new-study-fr   
   m-boulders-nca r-details-suns-seasonal   
      
   TI3/W7RI continues:   
      
   Not a lot to report here on HF propagation; haven't been on HF much   
   due to health issues, and only getting on six meters when the   
   squelch breaks. But there has been a bit of activity on six.   
      
   Six meters has been showing the usual equinox-related TEP activity   
   here in the low magnetic latitudes, with nightly openings into South   
   America from here in Costa Rica and the Caribbean.  There have been   
   no Es openings into the States for quite some time from here, but   
   the last several days have seen some afternoon TEP openings from the   
   States into South America, as usual going right over our heads, but   
   with nothing to show for it here on the ground. With the fellas in   
   the States reporting S9+30 signals, there hasn't been even a trace   
   on the waterfall here.   
      
   There was a spectacular F2 opening into Iberia and northwest Africa   
   a couple of weeks ago from here, and many of us got several new ones   
   during an opening that lasted several hours. It was my first success   
   in working Europe from here with my modest 90 watts and a 5/8   
   vertical, and I got four new countries in just one opening. Towards   
   the end of the opening, I nailed Western Sahara for an all-time new   
   one (never expected that to happen on 6 meters!), as did Mike,   
   TI5XP. Phil, TI5/N5BEK heard him, but wasn't able to complete a Q   
   before he was gone into the noise. The 'tragic' band strikes again!"   
      
   Spaceweather.com reports that early today, April 10, a G2 Class   
   geomagnetic storm erupted.  "Northern Lights spilled across the   
   Canadian border into the USA, where auroras were photographed as far   
   south as Colorado. At the time of this alert, storm conditions are   
   still underway with a possibility for more storming when a belated   
   CME arrives later in the day. Visit http://spaceweather.com for more   
   information and updates."   
      
   At ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DGD.txt I can see that the   
   first two of eight three hour periods today (April 10) have a   
   planetary K index of 5 and 6, which is high.   
      
   David Moore sends this article and image from Southern Iceland:   
      
   http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2015/04/Colourful_cosmic_curtains   
      
   G3CJC has a weekly report on 10 meter activity from England:   
      
   http://www.southgatearc.org/bands/10metres/2015/april/april_09.htm   
      
   He even has some sports commentary at the end on soccer, but over   
   there they call it football, just as the rest of the world does.   
      
   Mike Carter, K8CN of Durham, New Hampshire sent this article from   
   NBC about lightning:   
      
   http://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/bright-idea-map-show   
   -where-lightni ng-strikes-most-worldwide-n336806   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for April 2 through 8 were 31, 29, 68, 66, 78, 39,   
   and 40, with a mean of 50.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 119.9, 122.4,   
   122.2, 125.6, 111.2, and 106, with a mean of 118.4.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 13, 14, 12, 8, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of   
   9. Estimated mid- latitude A indices were 22, 14, 10, 8, 8, 6, and   
   4, with a mean of 10.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
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