SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP12   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12  ARLP012   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 20, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The Spring Equinox is today, March 20 at 2245 UTC.   
      
   On Tuesday, March 17 a CME struck Earth producing the largest   
   geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. Aurora was visible all   
   the way down to the central United States. The planetary A index for   
   the day was 117, an incredibly high number. It looks like the   
   greatest impact was in the second half of the UTC day, when the   
   planetary K index in the four 3-hour periods was 8, 8, 7 and 8.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number for this week rose from 32 to 59.1, and   
   average daily solar flux declined from 127.8 to 114.8.   
      
   The latest prediction has solar flux at 110 on March 20, 105 on   
   March 21-22, 100 on March 23-26, 105 on March 27, 110 on March 28,   
   105 on March 29-31 and 110 on April 1. Flux values are expected to   
   reach a peak of 120 (which is not very high) on April 3-5, and a low   
   of 95 on April 17-18.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is expected at 18 and 8 on March 20-21,   
   20 on March 22-23, 10 on March 24, 5 on March 25-26, then 15, 30 and   
   25 on March 27-29, then 12, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 1,   
   and 10, 15 and 12 on April 2-4 and 5 on April 5-6.   
      
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group expects   
   geomagnetic conditions to be mostly quiet on March 20, quiet to   
   unsettled March 21, quiet to active March 22, active to disturbed   
   March 23, quiet to unsettled March 24, mostly quiet March 25-26,   
   quiet to unsettled March 27, active to disturbed March 28-29, quiet   
   to unsettled March 30 through April 2, quiet to active April 3,   
   quiet to unsettled April 4-5, quiet on April 6, mostly quiet April   
   7-10, quiet to unsettled April 11-12, quiet to active April 13-14,   
   and quiet to unsettled April 15.   
      
   The planetary A index at 117 was huge, but when was it last that   
   high?   
      
   Here is a list of dates when the planetary A index was above 100, in   
   reverse order, along with links to the propagation bulletin   
   reporting it:   
      
   12/15/2006 Ap=104   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP052/2006   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP053/2006   
      
   Notice in the above bulletin is a link to a December 21, 2006   
   article claiming that the next solar cycle might be the biggest   
   ever. Oh, if only that were true. Cycle 24 was one of the weakest on   
   record, peaking about a year ago instead of 2010 or 2011 as forecast   
   in that article.   
      
   http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/   
      
   9/11/2005  Ap=105   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP039/2005   
      
   8/24/2005  Ap=110   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP036/2005   
      
   5/15/2005  Ap=105   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP020/2005   
      
   11/8/2004 to 11/10/2004  Ap = 189, 120, 181.   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP046/2004   
      
   The two STEREO observatories are very close to each other right now.   
   In fact, they will be practically on top of each other early   
   Saturday morning, North American time between 1249 and 1318 UTC when   
   their separation is only .023 degrees.   
      
   You can see the latest solar images from this project at   
   http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ .   
      
   Andy Fugard, M0INF hadn't heard anything on 10 meters before March   
   7-8 and using an indoor magnetic loop antenna he worked KI1G, W3LPL,   
   9A1P, YU1EW, N1UR, AA1K, NC1I and LZ4TX from his apartment in   
   London. You can see the antenna hanging in his window on his QRZ.com   
   page.   
      
   We had another report about those same dates from Francesco Basta,   
   PE1F. He wrote, "I read your column yesterday and was particularly   
   interested in your note about a solar flare that could cause   
   exceptional propagation conditions at frequencies above 10 MHz. I   
   think I can offer a witness about what happened on 28 MHz.   
      
   "I am located in Utrecht (Netherlands), JO22mc. I have some problems   
   with my antenna these days, so I can only use a small internal   
   antenna next to a window that covers 28, 50, 144 and 430 MHz bands.   
   With such an antenna I don't dare to use the full power of my   
   FT-950, so I used rather an FT-817 (5 W). I am located on the ground   
   floor.   
      
   "Since about 1030 UTC on March 7 I started hearing weak stations   
   from South America on 10 meters, namely Brazil, like the beacons   
   PY2WFG on 28.203 MHz and PT2SSB/B on 28.210 MHz. At about the same   
   time I could also hear beacons closer to me, like YM7KK/B (from   
   KN90iv) on 28.220 MHz and YM7TEN/B (from KN91rb) on 28.225 MHz   
   (sporadic-E?).   
      
   "In the evening I tried to have some QSOs with the US during the   
   ARRL contest, and indeed I managed to work K1KI from Connecticut   
   (1741 UT), W2IRT from NJ (1753 UT) and XL3T from Ontario (1806 UT).   
   Not bad for 5 W and an internal antenna...   
      
   "But the really incredible QSO happened the following day, March   
   8th, at 1706 UT: RI1ANR on CW from Antarctica on 28.004 MHz! And I   
   even managed to pass at the third or fourth attempt.   
      
   "Finally, I could hear an FM repeater from New York on 29.620 MHz   
   after about 30 minutes, at S9!   
      
   "It was really a wonderful experience, which I could not explain   
   until I read your article on ARRL.org."   
      
   Tyler Suydam, KC2LST of Parsippany, New Jersey wrote, "A couple of   
   anecdotes from last Saturday's M-class flare, which I didn't know   
   had occurred until after the ARRL DX SSB contest ended. On Saturday   
   night around midnight US east coast time, I worked two stations in   
   Hawaii on 40M phone, which I had never done before in my 8 years of   
   being active on HF with my low dipoles. However, that day and the   
   next, I was unable to hear, let alone work, any stations in Alaska   
   or Japan on any HF band, which I have been able to do regularly   
   during this 'peak' period of the current solar cycle. So from my   
   locale, it seemed the attenuating effect was confined to the Pacific   
   Rim, or at least did not affect the Hawaiian Islands. It would be   
   interesting to know whether stations there noticed unusual   
   propagation conditions as a result of the flare."   
      
   Mike Carter, K8CN of Durham, New Hampshire wrote on March 17, "I   
   just read in the news of the level 4 geomagnetic storm that reached   
   Earth earlier today (10 AM EDT by the news account). I hadn't been   
   active on the bands for the past several weeks due to a death in the   
   family, but was on the 20, 30, 40, and 80 meter bands over the past   
   24 hours and noticed unusually good propagation to areas that had   
   several weeks ago produced noticeably weaker signals. I run strictly   
   QRP CW, but was able to easily work E51 and VK on 30 meters   
   yesterday around 1045Z, and easily worked VK again this morning on   
   40 meters about the same time. Last night (about 0230Z) I heard   
   strongly, but couldn't break the pileups, E30FB and 9Q0HX on 20   
   meters. To my amazement I copied but did not work FK8 and RW0 on 80   
   meters around 1030Z this morning. Both were weak, but copyable, and   
   the pileups built quickly.   
      
   "I know that the Vernal Equinox provides enhanced HF propagation,   
   especially along the gray line, and no doubt the openings I cited   
   may be just due to this phenomenon. I am curious if the outer edges   
   of the geomagnetic storm that arrived today might have actually   
   enhanced HF propagation prior to the main blast's arrival, or is   
   that not possible?"   
      
   Rich Zwirko, K1HTV wrote, "March 17, 2015, St. Patrick's Day, was a   
   memorable one for VHF DXers. With the K Index between 7 and 8 we   
   were treated to some nice propagation via aurora. From my   
   Amissville, VA QTH, on 144 MHz, I heard or worked stations as far   
   east as Maine and as far west as Iowa including:   
      
   "UTC   
   2037 K9MRI   IN EN70   
   2107 WB8AUK  OH EN90   
   2043 W9ZIH   IL EN51   
   2107 W9EWZ   WI EN52   
   2128 VE3VHB  ON FN24   
   2146 KC0CF   IA EN32  (Best 2M DX this aurora, 867 miles. Also heard K0KD in   
   EN31, but he   
   got away.)   
   2155 VE3ZV   ON EN93 (on SSB)   
   2222 W9JN    WI EN54   
   2232 KF6A    MI EN73   
      
   "At 2059 UTC the aurora was intense enough to reflect signals   
   between W9ZIH (IL EN51) and K1HTV (FM18ap) for my first ever 432 MHz   
   aurora QSO."   
      
   Quite impressive. That is 617 miles on 432 MHz.   
      
   Many people emailed me the call sign for Bob MacKenzie, mentioned on   
   Spaceweather.com last week, and I heard from him via email a couple   
   of days later. He is VA3RKM. He wrote, "A friend of mine, Jose   
   VA3PCJ, mentioned to me that it was interesting that I worked three   
   amateur stations in Japan between 2233 and 2240 UTC on March 7, 2015   
   on the 10 metre band (28.4 MHz) only minutes after the M9 flare with   
   just 5 watts of single-sideband power and a single-element vertical   
   antenna in my backyard. It's a rare event to work Japan so easily   
   with such little power on phone and not Morse code. The annual ARRL   
   International DX Phone contest was on at the time so there were   
   plenty of DX stations on the air, making this observation of unusual   
   propagation possible.   
      
   "My station is located in Ottawa, Canada (see QRZ.com under VA3RKM).   
   We were wondering about propagation paths to here. The first contact   
   with Japan (JA0JHA in Niigata, according to qrz.com) required a few   
   repeats and the next two (JA0QNJ also in Niigata; JA7OWD in   
   Haramachi Hukushima, Fukushima? according to qrz.com) were   
   remarkably easy."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "Regarding the spaceweather.com report that   
   solar flares can be 'good and bad for radio communications' I was   
   operating on 50 MHz from the south tip of Maui on March 11 around   
   0000z. I heard LW3EX (GF05) calling CQ on 50.096 MHz CW. I called   
   and got a reply, then Walt faded out as a M-Class solar flare   
   occurred from AR2297. Fortunately the adverse effects of the solar   
   flare were brief, and Walt reappeared with a stronger signal and we   
   were able to complete a contact about 10 minutes later. I was mobile   
   with a 1/4 wave whip antenna. 12,000 km from Hawaii to Argentina."   
      
   Chris Parker, AF6PX of Torrance, California wrote, "I fly a   
   Bombardier Challenger biz jet with two very expensive Rockwell   
   Collins HF9000 radios for long-range aeronautical communications.   
   Turns out they also work great for amateur band aeronautical mobile   
   use. With 150W PEP, and an antenna at 41,000 feet, it's virtually   
   impossible that I can't work anyone I can hear. Except Tuesday,   
   March 17th. On that day, on a flight from Arizona to the San   
   Francisco Bay area, I tuned across the 20M, 17M, and 15M bands and   
   didn't hear a soul. I knew something was up; but I didn't know what   
   until I watched the evening news. That's when I found out that a   
   powerful CME had impacted the Earth and caused a disruptive   
   geomagnetic storm. I sure hope this settles down quickly, because I   
   can't wait to get back to my aeronautical mobile DX!"   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 12 through 18 were 56, 87, 56, 54, 57, 60,   
   and 44, with a mean of 59.1. 10.7 cm flux was 126.7, 119.4, 115.6,   
   114.4, 117.2, 114.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 117.5. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 8, 6, 5, 7, 11, 117, and 52, with a mean of   
   29.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 5, 7, 9, 46, and   
   32, with a mean of 15.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)