SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP04   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 28, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose over the past week (ending   
   January 26) by 11.3 points to 32.6, compared to the previous week.   
   Average daily solar flux rose 3.1 points to 83.5.  Planetary A index   
   average was down two points to 2.9, and mid-latitude A index was   
   down 1.5 points to 2.4.   
      
   On Thursday, January 27 the sunspot number was 0, but a new spot is   
   emerging near the horizon in the southeast quadrant.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF shows lower solar activity,   
   with solar flux for January 28 at 79, then 80 for January 29 through   
   February 6, and 82 for February 7-22, and 88 on February 23.  This   
   forecast is from Thursday, January 27 and is much more optimistic   
   than the Wednesday forecast, which was reported in the ARRL Letter.   
      
   NOAA/USAF shows a planetary A index of 5 on January 28 through   
   February 2, then 8 on February 3, 12 on February 4, and 8 on   
   February 5.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet conditions January 28   
   through February 1, quiet to unsettled February 2 and unsettled   
   February 3.   
      
   This weekend is the CQ World Wide 160-Meter CW Contest, and   
   geomagnetic conditions look stable, which is a favorable condition   
   for this contest.   
      
   Ron McCollum, W7GTF sent an image of the cover of the March, 1956   
   issue of CQ Magazine, which has a picture of a solar disc with   
   sunspots, and the headline, "Sunspot Report: ONCE IN A LIFETIME   
   CONDITIONS - CQ EXCLUSIVE."  Of course, as we know, after this   
   magazine appeared on newsstands 55 years ago, conditions got even   
   better over the next couple of years.   
      
   Ron wrote, "While cleaning out our family home (of 41 years) in   
   Seattle in preparation to sell, and to finally get rid of nearly 50   
   years of radio magazines, I kept this CQ."  What makes me nervous   
   though is his statement "to finally get rid of."   
      
   Seattle has a very convenient and efficient recycling system that   
   includes curbside pickup, which may make disposal a little too   
   convenient. I certainly hope he found a good home for these   
   journals.  After all, they aren't making any more of them.  Most of   
   the great old issues of QST from the 1920s and 1930s disappeared in   
   World War II paper drives.   
      
   While not related to amateur radio or propagation, Dick Bingham,   
   W7WKR, who lives far off the grid at Stehekin, Washington (his   
   station location listed in the FCC database is "1.2 miles up Company   
   Creek Road!") sent in a useful, interesting and educational URL (see   
   http://snipurl.com/1xal41) linking to a 15-part series on   
   mathematics by Dr. Steven Strogatz that appeared last year in the   
   New York Times. This series focuses on a practical understanding of   
   a wide range of mathematics for lay people, such as myself.   
      
   STEREO coverage, for all practical purposes, now displays the entire   
   Sun.  It recently passed 99.7%, and by February 1 will surpass 99.8%   
   coverage.  At http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov you can only see a narrow   
   slit of darkness on the Sun's far side, and on Friday morning the   
   new emerging sunspot region shows as a bright white area just this   
   side of -90 degrees longitude in our Sun's southern hemisphere.   
      
   NW7US has a page on "De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and   
   Modeling" at http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-demystified.html.   
   Here you can find some examples of coverage maps, which we showed   
   how to generate at http://www.voacap.com/coverage.html in last   
   week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP003.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 20 through 26 were 32, 42, 36, 38, 28,   
   27, and 25, with a mean of 32.6. 10.7 cm flux was 82.3, 87.5, 87.7,   
   84.3, 82.5, 80.5 and 80 with a mean of 83.5. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4 and 3 with a mean of 2.9. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3 and 2 with a mean of   
   2.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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