SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP06   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 6, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity rose over the last week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers rising from 89.1 to 139 in the seven days ending February 4.   
      
   Average daily solar flux rose from 136.8 to 151.1. This is the   
   second week in a row with higher sunspot numbers and solar flux than   
   the previous week. Predicted average solar flux for the next 7 days,   
   February 5-11 is 141.   
      
   Twice over the past week the daily solar flux was adjusted downward,   
   due to overloading of the receiver at Penticton, the Canadian   
   observatory which provides those readings. On January 29 the reading   
   was 171.8, which was lowered to an estimated 165, and again on   
   February 4 when 154.4 was lowered to 145.   
      
   A new sunspot appeared on January 29, two more on February 2, and   
   another one on February 4.   
      
   At 0211 UTC on February 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre   
   issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning in an email.   
      
   Here is what they wrote:   
      
   "High solar wind speeds coupled with significant southward pointing   
   of the interplanetary magnetic field are causing active to minor   
   storm levels of geomagnetic activity across the Australian region.   
   Mostly active conditions are expected over the next 2-3 days but   
   further active to minor Storm periods are possible. Note that this   
   supersedes earlier forecasts of unsettled to active conditions."   
      
   They said that increased geomagnetic activity was expected due to a   
   high speed solar wind from a coronal hole   
      
   They predicted unsettled to minor storm conditions on February 1,   
   unsettled to active conditions with possible minor storm periods on   
   February 2, and unsettled to active conditions on February 3.   
      
   And what were conditions like on February 2-3?  On February 2-3 the   
   planetary A index was 27 and 17, and on the same dates the   
   high-latitude college A index readings were 44 and 28. Alaska and   
   northern Canada operators will tell you that HF conditions are   
   pretty rotten when the A index gets to 44, with extreme absorption   
   of HF signals.   
      
   The average daily sunspot number for January was 101.3. Looking at   
   our recent 3-month moving averages of sunspot numbers, you can see   
   the second larger peak of cycle 24 early last year, when the moving   
   averages centered on January, February and March were 138.5, 146.4   
   and 148.2. Averages centered on April through December 2014 were   
   129.6, 118.4, 112.8, 109.2, 115.6, 108.4, 107, 104.7, and 107.8.   
      
   In order to calculate the three month average centered on December   
   2014 we needed sunspot data from all of January 2015, as that period   
   averages all sunspot numbers from November 1 through January 31. We   
   can calculate the three-month average for January at the end of   
   February.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 140 on February 6-7, 145   
   on February 8-9, then 140, 135 and 130 on February 10-12, 125 on   
   February 13-16, then 120, 115 and 120 on February 17-19, 125 on   
   February 20-21, and 120 on February 22-23. Flux values then reach a   
   high of 135 on February 26-28, and dip down to 115 on March 17.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10 on February 6-7, 8 on February   
   8-11, 6 on February 12, 5 on February 13-14, 12 on February 15, 10   
   on February 16-18, 8 on February 19, and 5 on February 20-23.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH has this geomagnetic forecast:  Expect quiet to   
   active conditions February 6-8, quiet to unsettled February 9-13,   
   mostly quiet February 14-15, quiet on February 16, active to   
   disturbed February 17, quiet to active February 18, quiet on   
   February 19, mostly quiet February 20, quiet to unsettled February   
   21-22, quiet to active February 23, quiet to unsettled February 24,   
   mostly quiet February 25-26, disturbed February 27, quiet to active   
   February 28, active to disturbed March 1, disturbed on March 2,   
   quiet to active March 3, and mostly quiet March 4.   
      
   He says increases in solar wind are unpredictable, but he expects   
   increases around February 19-20, February 25 and 28, and March 1.   
      
   Ed Valentine, W2YPM of New Bern, North Carolina sent a report about   
   his operating in the recent January ARRL VHF Contest.  He said he   
   worked only two stations from FM15kb on 2 meter SSB, and both were   
   in Virginia.   
      
   Rick Radke, W9WS and Donald Kalinowski, NJ2E sent this interesting   
   article and video:   
      
   http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/05/science/living-with-a-star.html   
      
   Jim McIntosh, W8MKR of Shepherd, Michigan sent a link to an old   
   National Geographic article from four years ago about predictions of   
   a sunspot free future. He was curious about the implications for ham   
   radio, and I pointed out that you can still communicate worldwide   
   with no sunspots, just not as easily.   
      
   I ran some predictions with W6ELprop from his location with 0   
   sunspots, and found that on today's date on a path to Brazil he had   
   a 25% chance of communication on 15 meters from 1530-2000 UTC. On 17   
   meters, he could add an hour on each end of that period, and that   
   conditions should be good from 1630-1900 UTC. 20 meters looked good   
   from 1830-2130 UTC, and of course 80, 40 and 30 meters looked quite   
   promising. Change the date to March 22, and the possibilities look   
   much better. What suffers are 10 and 12 meters.  But no sunspots   
   should be fantastic for 160 meter propagation, with a smaller chance   
   of geomagnetic disturbance disrupting communications.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 29 through February 4 were 181, 193,   
   153, 132, 117, 112, and 85, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was   
   165, 159.4, 153.5, 141.7, 144, 149.3, and 145, with a mean of 151.1.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 9, 21, 27, 17, and 9, with   
   a mean of 14.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8, 6, 11,   
   17, 12, and 5, with a mean of 9.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)