SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP04   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 23, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for January 15-21 dropped 50.7 points   
   relative to the previous seven days, to 61.9. Average daily solar   
   flux declined from 151.3 to 126.2. For the past ten days sunspot   
   numbers have remained below 100. This benchmark has no special   
   significance, but the last time there were this many consecutive   
   days with double-digit sunspot numbers was October 5-20, 2014.   
      
   Geomagnetic numbers indicated more stable conditions, with average   
   daily planetary A index declining from 9.6 to 6.4, and average daily   
   mid-latitude A index dropping from 8 to 4.7.   
      
   The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA has solar flux at 130 and 135   
   on January 23-24, 130 on January 25-26, 135, 140 and 145 on January   
   27-29, 135 on January 30 through February 1, 130 on February 2-3,   
   125 on February 4-6, 130 on February 7-9, 125 on February 10-11 and   
   120 on February 12-13. Solar flux reaches a low of 115 on February   
   18, and peaks again at 135 on February 26-28.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 15 on January 23-24, 18 on January   
   25-26, 8 on January 27-28, 12 on January 29-30, 15 on January 31   
   through February 1, then 12, 15, 12 and 5 on February 2-5, 10 on   
   February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, 5 on February 10-12, then 8, 5 and   
   12 on February 13-15, 10 on February 16-18, and 8 on February 19-20.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts geomagnetic activity will be active to   
   disturbed on January 23, quiet on January 24, mostly quiet January   
   25, active to disturbed January 26-28, quiet January 29, active to   
   disturbed January 30, mostly quiet January 31, disturbed February   
   1-2, quiet to unsettled January 3, quiet to active January 4, active   
   to disturbed February 5, quiet to active February 6-8, mostly quiet   
   February 9-13, quiet to active February 14, and quiet to unsettled   
   February 15-17.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington posted these observations:   
      
   "Thanks for the link and update from NASA in your last bulletin. A   
   couple things I wanted to add to amplify on the trend and outline a   
   unique historical perspective.   
      
   "Cycle 24's peak is past and will fall into the ranks of the lower   
   Sunspot Cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, and 16. NASA's article pointed out   
   Cycle 24 being the smallest since Cycle 14 in 1906. It will probably   
   mirror Cycle 12 or 13 finishing with a smoothed sunspot number in   
   the high 70s low 80s plus or minus. A few additional points make   
   this cycle unique in addition to the second peak being higher than   
   the first: In past strong sunspot cycles (21, 22, and 23) we have   
   had what I would call the 'top 3' being 3 outstanding years of high   
   solar activity (the year prior to the peak, the year of the peak,   
   and the year after where Solar flux values have averaged between 150   
   and 225).   
      
   "Tying this observation to Cycle 23 (a lower but normal cycle in   
   2000, 2001, and 2002) during these peak years propagation on 10, 12,   
   and 15 meters was outstanding almost ALL the time. Cycle 24 has   
   bestowed just a little over one year of this type of propagation -   
   late 2013 to present. Graphically seen from the Solar activity   
   report from this Web link:   
      
   "http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png   
      
   "Things become more interesting with the fact Cycle 24 will   
   obviously finish with a smoothed sunspot number of less than 100.   
      
   "This is the first time this has occurred since Cycle 16 finished in   
   1933 (over 80 years ago!).   
      
   "Link with the corresponding data:   
      
   "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles.png   
      
   "Graphically, Cycle 24 will fit into the BIG picture as follows,   
   accurately done by K9LA:   
      
   "http://k9la.us/A_Look_at_All_Twenty_Three_Solar_Cycles.pdf   
      
   "Connecting the dots from the graphs, historically there have been   
   decades of high and low solar activity spanning several sunspot   
   cycles. As one source has pointed out, got most of our radio amateur   
   lifetimes we have experienced some of the highest solar activity   
   periods in history, 1950 to 2009. The Graph from NASA of the current   
   trend pretty well sums up the overall direction:   
      
   "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#mediaviewer/File:Ha   
   haway_Cycle_24 _Prediction.png   
      
   "Summarizing:   
      
   "Cycle 24 will be a low cycle very likely to be followed by several   
   other low or even lower cycles - supported by the current and   
   historical data.  Make the most of the current band conditions and   
   upcoming DXpeditions - it certainly looks as if we are heading   
   toward a 'Propagation Winter.'"   
      
   Thanks, Randy.   
      
   I do not know if we are headed toward a "propagation winter" and   
   quiet Sun or not, although plenty of experts much smarter than me   
   might think so. I like to remember when some of the best minds made   
   a case for the upcoming Cycle 24 to be the biggest ever, and of   
   course it did not turn out that way.   
      
   I hope to be around for the next cycle, might even see the one after   
   that, but I doubt I will see three cycles out. When I started as a   
   Novice it was Cycle 20, right after the big one, and it sure seemed   
   weak!   
      
   We heard from Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia. He wrote:   
      
   "Other than a few Es openings, 6 meters has been pretty quiet the   
   past few weeks. I think that we have seen the last of any 50 MHz E-W   
   F2 skip for this solar cycle and possibly future cycles. Magic   
   Banders will have to rely on summer multi-hop E-skip and SSSP   
   chordal openings for the next long haul 6 Meter DX contacts."   
      
   He also mentioned that his son, Andy, K1RA of Warrenton, Virginia is   
   operating a RaspberryPi as a multi-band HF WSPR beacon running only   
   10 milliwatts. (RaspberryPi is a tiny and inexpensive computer that   
   is popular as a microcontroller. See http://www.raspberrypi.org/ )   
      
   This not only changes bands automatically according to a timing   
   cycle, but the microprocessor actually generates the RF and connects   
   directly to the antenna feedline, via some simple filtering. The   
   signal is output as a square wave, but the harmonics are easy to   
   filter out and at 10 mw are simple to control. The beacon callsign   
   is KW4VA and the grid locator is FM18cr.   
      
   Andy wrote:   
      
   "I've been running a Raspberry Pi and the JamesP6000 WSPRryPi code   
   under my club call KW4VA recently, which you can read about at the   
   following URL for info, links and DX spot maps:   
      
   "http://www.k1ra.us/2015/01/03/kw4va-wspr-beacon   
      
   "In short the RPi CPU can natively generate about 10 milliwatts of   
   RF from 0-250 MHz off one of its GPIO pins. The WSPR code is based   
   off some earlier code developed in the UK to allow generation of FM   
   signal at 100 MHz:   
      
   "http://www.icrobotics.co.uk/wiki/index.php/Turning_the_Raspberr   
   _Pi_Into_an_FM _Transmitter   
      
   "I'm running one of the IO pins to external wire antennas.  I was   
   stuck at about 7500 km for a few years until this past week when I   
   was spotted by ZS6AF on 17m at 13322 km, then in the last two days   
   by ZL1RS on 20m at 13811 km and finally VK2DDI on 30m at 15729 km.   
   Here are the spots from the WSPR propagation database:   
      
   "Timestamp       MHz        SNR Reporter RGrid  km   
      
   2015-01-19 08:22 10.140240  -27 VK2DDI  QF55hf  15729    
   2015-01-15 10:18 14.097116  -24 ZL1RS   RF64vs  13811    
   2015-01-08 21:14 18.106032  -22 ZS6AF   KG54mk  13322   
      
   "I've been playing with very low power WSPR for a while now.  In the   
   past I'd been using a PIC controller by AA0ZZ and a 0-60 MHz DDS   
   board by N2APB that also put out about 10 mw and was using a 30m   
   dipole in the attic at 30'. Then I was stuck on one band at a time,   
   usually 10m.  I'm sure the outside dipoles and wires at 45' help a   
   bit. With the use of the RPi though I've have been able to   
   automatically band hop. I think this too has helped to increase my   
   DX spots by other WSPR stations. I run 80, 40, 30, 20m every 2 mins   
   at night and 20, 17, 15, 12 10m every 2 mins during the day."   
      
   This weekend are the ARRL January VHF Contest (see   
   http://www.arrl.org/news/the-arrl-january-vhf-contest-offers-a-b   
   eak-from-winte r-s-doldrums   
   and http://www.arrl.org/january-vhf) and the CQ World Wide 160 meter   
   CW Contest (http://www.cq160.com/rules.htm).   
      
   For the 160 meter CW contest we would like to see very quiet   
   geomagnetic conditions. OK1HH predicts disturbed conditions on   
   Friday, then quiet on Saturday and mostly quiet Sunday. Quiet is a   
   good outlook, although I don't know what the effect of Friday's   
   conditions might be on the rest of the weekend if they are   
   disturbed.   
      
   NOAA/USAF predicts an A index of 15 on Friday and Saturday and 18 on   
   Sunday. This is neither quiet nor disturbed, but I would   
   characterize it as unsettled conditions.   
      
   Let's hope for dead quiet geomagnetic conditions over the entire   
   weekend. Have fun!   
      
   Following up on last week's link to an article about the National   
   Radio Quiet Zone and the people who flock there, N7SO sent another   
   article:   
      
   http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/04/gr   
   en_bank_w_v_wh ere_the_electrosensitive_can_escape_the_modern_world.single.html   
      
   We also heard from a ham who used to work there, Rob Welsh, N3RW,   
   who wrote:   
      
   "I was previously employed at NRAO Green Bank (see   
   http://www.nrao.edu/) on a Milky Way mapping project. Given that   
   NRAO GB is in the National Radio Quiet Zone, I was given permission   
   to put my QRP rig on the air on 17 meters using the HF Bruce array   
   at the observatory entrance. Few stations I worked believed that I   
   was running just 5 W. With about 100 feet of RG-58 between the dorm   
   and the antenna, I bet I was radiating more like 3 W at best."   
      
   Info on a Bruce Arrays:   
      
   http://rudys.typepad.com/ant/files/antenna_array_80160m.pdf   
      
   Rob also wrote in a subsequent email:   
      
   "The Bruce Array at the entrance to the Green Bank site is a rebuild   
   of the antenna used by physicist Karl Jansky who in the 1930s   
   studied radio noise for the Bell System's HF radio circuits.   
      
   "Jansky eliminated all noise sources except one which occurred 4   
   minutes earlier each day. In conversations with others, he was told   
   that the stars rise 4 minutes earlier than solar time.   
      
   "Jansky may have been the first to discover galactic radio noise as   
   he was recording the radio noise emitted by the Milky Way.   
      
   "One of my tasks while employed at GB was to perform a VSWR vs.   
   frequency plot of the Bruce Array. The center frequency, as I   
   remember, was about 20 MHz, so with a QRP antenna tuner I was able   
   to find a match for the 17 meter band.   
      
   "Radio astronomers consider the HF bands as 'low frequency' for   
   astronomical observations. There has been an increase in HF   
   observations at HF with the purpose of identifying galactic sources   
   at lower energy levels.   
      
   "Also at the entrance to the site is a rebuild of Grote Reber's   
   (W9GFZ, SK) 30 foot parabolic antenna. Reber read Jansky's published   
   work and went about measuring galactic radio noise at VHF.   
      
   "See my article in the December 2009 issue of QST titled 'How the   
   Ionosphere Was Discovered.'   
      
   "The callsign, W9GFZ, has been issued to NRAO and used at both the   
   Green Bank site and at the Very Large Array in New Mexico. I've   
   observed at both sites.   
      
   "You may see the antenna systems at GB by using:  www.gb.nrao.edu   
   and on the left side of the main page, surf to 'telescopes.'  My QSL   
   card has the 45 foot antenna on the front. That is the system I used   
   to map a quadrant of our galaxy at wavelengths of 3.5 and 2.1 cm.   
   Big antennas sure are interesting!"   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 15 through 21 were 62, 75, 49, 78, 62,   
   57, and 50, with a mean of 61.9. 10.7 cm flux was 131.4, 124.7,   
   121.9, 125.8, 130, 125.6, and 123.9, with a mean of 126.2. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 7, 7, 5, 5, 4, and 11, with a mean of   
   6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 5, 3, 2, 5, and 7,   
   with a mean of 4.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
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