SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP03   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 16, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP003   
   ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose again this week, while   
   geomagnetic indices were relatively quiet. Average daily sunspot   
   numbers rose from 108.1 in the first week of 2015 to 112.6 in the   
   following seven days. Average daily solar flux rose from 144.7 to   
   151.3.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 130 on January 16, 125 on   
   January 17-18, 120 on January 19-20, 115 on January 21-22, 140 on   
   January 23, 130 on January 24-26, 135 on January 27-28, 140 on   
   January 29-30, and 145 on January 31 through February 7. Flux values   
   then peak at 180 on February 11-12, and dip down to 130 on February   
   20-22.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 15, 12 and 10 on January   
   16-20, 8 on January 21-22, then 5, 10 and 18 on January 23-25, and   
   15, 8, 5, 10 and 12 on January 26-30, 15 on January 31 through   
   February 1, 12, 15 and 12 on February 2-4, 5 on February 5-6 and 10   
   on February 7-8.   
      
   OK1HH sent his predictions for geomagnetic conditions, and believes   
   there will be quiet to unsettled conditions January 16, mostly quiet   
   January 17, quiet to active January 18, quiet January 19, active to   
   disturbed January 20, quiet to active January 21, active to   
   disturbed January 22, mostly quiet January 23, active to disturbed   
   January 24, quiet to active January 25, disturbed January 26, mostly   
   quiet January 27, quiet January 28, active to disturbed January 29   
   through February 1, quiet to active February 2-3, mostly quiet   
   February 4, quiet February 5, quiet to active February 6-7, and   
   quiet on February 8-11.   
      
   NASA has a new assessment of sunspot Cycle 24, updated from November   
   14. You can read it here:   
      
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml   
      
   The changes are, on November 14, 2014 they said the smoothed sunspot   
   number was 70 in late 2013, and now on January 14, 2015 that has   
   been revised upward to 72. The new report says the smoothed sunspot   
   number peaked at 81.9 in April 2014. This was the second peak for   
   Cycle 24, the first being 66.9 in February 2012. They noted that   
   double-peaked sunspot cycles are common, but the current cycle is   
   the first in which the second peak was higher than the first.   
      
   This is the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14, which peaked at   
   64.2 in February 1906.   
      
   The National Radio Quiet Zone in West Virginia is the setting for an   
   interesting story involving radio astronomy and people who believe   
   they are sensitive to low levels of RF energy. A few hams are   
   mentioned in this piece (KD8KSG, KC0KTW and N8DBN), although not   
   identified by call sign.   
      
   http://www.washingtonian.com/articles/people/the-town-without-wi-fi/   
      
   Green Bank seems to have an unusually large population of amateur   
   radio operators (over 20% of the town's residents, according to the   
   FCC license database), especially for a place in which the FCC   
   allows no radio transmitters.   
      
   Of course, perhaps not all of the hams with mailing addresses in   
   Green Bank live in town, but there are 30 amateur radio operators   
   listed in Green Bank (plus one amateur radio club with a club call),   
   and the article says the town's population is only 143.   
      
   Most interesting to me is that Diane Schou, one of the first people   
   in the article who moved to Green Bank just to get away from all   
   forms of RF energy is also a licensed ham, KC0KTW. Her call sign   
   from the zero call area suggests she was a ham (General Class)   
   before she moved to Green Bank, which is in the W8 area.   
      
   Perhaps she does a lot more listening than transmitting.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK reports 6 meter E-skip:   
      
   "With the geomagnetic field settling down, Es has returned to 6   
   meters. High geomagnetic activity tends to suppress mid-latitude   
   sporadic-E.   
      
   "Es was present in North America on 6 meters Saturday January 10/11   
   UTC 2200-0240 UTC and again on January 11 from 1300-1700 UTC.   
      
   "Double hop Es spotted by WA4NJP EM84 to PJ4VHF at 0031 UTC January   
   11 and Florida stations worked CE and PY via TEP.   
      
   "On Sunday morning WF0N (EM28) and I (EM28) both worked KI4DJG EM82   
   at 1455z January 11 on 50.135 MHz SSB with strong signals on Es."   
      
   Bill Byrom, N5BB sent some resources for improving reception on   
   those longwave 60 KHz WWVB clocks:   
      
   http://ka7oei.blogspot.com/2013/03/getting-atomic-wwvb-clocks-to-work.html   
      
   http://www.febo.com/time-freq/wwvb/antenna/index.html   
      
   David Moore sent us this link to a video of aurora:   
      
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PnY8eElWic   
      
   Be sure to set the HD option for this one, and expand the display to   
   fill your screen.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 8 through 14 were 101, 125, 146, 133,   
   111, 93, and 89, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 157.2,   
   151.2, 151.9, 153.7, 158.6, 145, and 141.8, with a mean of 151.3.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 8, 10, 10, 8, 8, and 7, with   
   a mean of 9.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 7, 9, 8, 7,   
   5, and 5, with a mean of 8.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)