SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 9, 2015   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   All solar activity indicators rose this week, sunspot numbers, solar   
   flux and geomagnetic indices.   
      
   On January 7 the interplanetary magnetic field tipped south, opening   
   a crack to admit solar wind. This triggered the largest geomagnetic   
   storm since September 2014. That same day the planetary A index   
   jumped to 38, pushing the average for the week to 17.7. The previous   
   seven days (the final seven days of 2014) the average planetary A   
   index was 13.9.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers on the first week of January were   
   108.1, compared to 102.9 in the final seven days of 2014. Likewise,   
   average daily solar flux increased from 134.9 to 144.7.   
      
   The latest prediction has solar flux at 160 on January 9, 165 on   
   January 10-11, 170 on January 12, 175 on January 13-14, 180 on   
   January 15, then 170, 165, 160, 155, 145, 140 and 135 January 16-22,   
   and reaching a minimum at 130 on January 23-27. Solar flux then   
   rises to a maximum of 175 on February 8-11. The January 15 flux at   
   180 is the highest predicted solar flux for at least the next 45   
   days.   
      
   Predicted Planetary A index is 15 on January 9, 10 on January 10-12,   
   8 on January 13, 5 on January 14-20, then 10, 15 and 5 on January   
   21-23, then 10, 18 and 15 on January 24-26, then 8, 5, 10 and 12 on   
   January 27-30, 15 on January 31 and February 1, then 10, 8 and 18 on   
   February 2-4, 10 on February 5-7, 5 on February 8-16, then 10 and 15   
   on February 17-18.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions   
   January 9-10, quiet on January 11-17, quiet to active January 18,   
   mostly quiet January 19, active to disturbed January 20, quiet to   
   active January 21, active to disturbed January 22, quiet January 23,   
   quiet to active January 24, active to disturbed January 25, quiet to   
   active January 26, quiet to unsettled January 27, and mostly quiet   
   January 28.   
      
   OK1HH also predicts an increase in solar wind on January 9-11 and   
   again on January 28.   
      
   Mike Morris, WA6ILQ passed along a resource he heard about from Jeff   
   Kincaid, W6JK. This is part of the new Space Weather Forecast Center   
   web site, and the page is titled Radio Communication Dashboard:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/radio-communications   
      
   Each of the three prediction displays is animated. Just hit the   
   arrow button at the bottom, and the animation begins after a short   
   delay.   
      
   The D Region absorption is important because the D Layer expands in   
   daylight, and absorbs and attenuates lower frequency radio waves.   
   This is why 160 meter signals don't propagate for long distances   
   during daytime.   
      
   If 160 meters seems dead after dark, you might check the D Region   
   absorption to see if absorption is the culprit.   
      
   Also on this page is a nice graphic showing aurora probability and   
   one showing solar X-ray activity.   
      
   I ran across this page, which shows a display for Southern   
   Hemisphere aurora:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/30-minute-aurora-forecast   
      
   It's been some time now since we introduced   
   http://www.sunspotter.org/#/ via this bulletin, but here it is   
   again. We can help classify sunspots by choosing which of two images   
   is the most complex.   
      
   Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas sent a screen shot from   
   http://www.dxmaps.com/spots/map.php showing a 6 meter opening on   
   Friday, January 2 around 2100-2200 UTC. Most of the contacts shown   
   had their paths crossing at a midpoint near Vicksburg, Mississippi   
   with an estimated MUF of 61 MHz above EM42 at 2106 UTC.   
      
   Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI wrote from Costa Rica: "Propagation on the   
   upper HF bands has been lackluster at best, with only occasional   
   days of really good propagation, but the lower HF bands have   
   benefited noticeably. Daily, on 75 meters, the signals into the   
   States are very strong in the hours around sunrise and for up to an   
   hour afterward, and Jay, HP3AK has been having some useful results   
   for his daily early morning DX hunting in the DX window on 75 at his   
   gray line. Our morning Central American coffee klatch on 75 meters   
   has been interrupted occasionally of late by QRM from the States   
   that often is as strong as the locals. And the local signals just   
   this morning were as strong as I have ever seen them. I'm hearing   
   good signals on 60m as well. I really wish we could get back our 60   
   meters privileges here in Costa Rica - that's a valued and needed   
   band for us. But the prospects aren't good.   
      
   "6 meters is going into its usual Winter funk here, with ever fewer   
   openings each day. We've been blessed, though, with a lot of short   
   and erratic openings into the South Pacific, and Andy, YS1AG and   
   Phil, TI5/N5BEK have been working Bob, ZL1RS and several VK4s at   
   least once or twice a week. Other than a spectacular but short Es   
   opening into the States one day last week, and another into northern   
   Central America, there's been very little Es activity here in   
   Central America in recent weeks.   
      
   "The almost-daily TEP openings from here into South America have   
   been getting fewer and the signals weaker and being heard for   
   shorter periods in the evening. Afternoon TEP has all but   
   disappeared and the evening TEP is getting weaker and less reliable.   
   That's the usual pattern here for this time of year; we expect   
   openings to be weak and erratic until March when things should begin   
   to improve.  Time to do some antenna work - getting busy doing other   
   things ought to stimulate some openings."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 1 through 7 were 101, 113, 122, 124, 89,   
   102, and 106, with a mean of 108.1. 10.7 cm flux was 137.5, 145.8,   
   148.7, 149.7, 141.9, 141.9, and 147.2, with a mean of 144.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 12, 15, 21, 18, 13, and 38,   
   with a mean of 17.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8, 13,   
   15, 10, 11, and 23, with a mean of 12.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)