SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP52   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 29, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP052   
   ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was a mixed bag over the week of December 18-24   
   compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers   
   were down 12.5 points to 132.9, while average daily solar flux rose   
   22.9 points to 190.6.   
      
   A peak of geomagnetic activity occurred on December 22 and 24, with   
   planetary A index at 20 and 17. Three CMEs hit earth on December   
   21-22.   
      
   The latest prediction (December 25) from NOAA/USAF forecasters has   
   solar flux at 140 December 26, 145 December 27-28, 150 December   
   29-31, and 140 January 1-3. After that it climbs, from 145, 150, and   
   155, January 4-6, then 165, 170, 175 and 180 January 7-10, 185   
   January 11-12, 190 and 200 January 13-14, 205 January 15-17, then   
   peaks at 210 on January 18. Flux values then decline to a low of 140   
   on January 18-20.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index from the same source is 5 on December   
   26, 8 on December 27, 10 on December 28 through January 1, then 12,   
   25, 15 and 10 on January 2-5, 8 on January 6-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8   
   on January 10-11, and 5 on January 12-18.   
      
   OK1HH sends his weekly geomagnetic forecast, which calls for quiet   
   conditions December 26, mostly quiet December 27, quiet to unsettled   
   December 28-30, mostly quiet December 31, quiet to unsettled January   
   1, quiet to active January 2, active to disturbed January 3-4, quiet   
   to active January 5-6, quiet January 7, quiet to active January 8,   
   quiet to unsettled January 9, quiet to active January 10, quiet to   
   unsettled January 11, active to disturbed January 12, mostly quiet   
   January 13-14, quiet January 15-17, active to disturbed January 18,   
   mostly quiet January 19, quiet to unsettled January 20, and quiet to   
   active January 21.   
      
   Lee, W4KUT said he was unable to participate in the recent ARRL 10   
   Meter Contest, but "I did venture into 28 MHz CW territory and, WOW!   
   I sent a quick response to a CQ from W1AW/7 (Comstock, NV) 2329 UTC   
   on December 12, S9+ on both ends.   
      
   "I tell you, I've got to do more 10M activity. The band is hot these   
   days!   
      
   "I would urge American Hams with a Tech license or better, to check   
   out 10 Meters, and yes, 10 Meters is available to Technician   
   Licensees; CW, RTTY/Data and Phone (SSB).   
      
   "According to the ARRL website: 28.000-28.300 MHz: CW,   
   RTTY/Data--Maximum power 200 watts PEP 28.300-28.500 MHz: CW,   
   Phone--Maximum power 200 watts PEP"   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28) in Kansas writes "A strong winter Es opening   
   on 50 MHz between the Midwest and eastern states December 19 from   
   1430-1730z. Here in eastern Kansas, K1RO FN33 and K2UU FN30 were   
   very loud around 1600z. No links noted to F2 to Europe or Africa."   
      
   Jon is a frequent contributor to this bulletin, and he also writes   
   "The World Above 50 MHz" column for QST Magazine.   
      
   The site http://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz gives some   
   details about the column and a little bit of history, where it says   
   it "has appeared in QST for more than 60 years, making it one of the   
   longest running columns. It originated as 'On the Ultra Highs,'   
   which debuted in December 1939 under the direction of Ed Tilton,   
   W1HDQ."   
      
   While true the column has run for more than 60 years, currently it   
   has run for over 75 years. It says that W1HDQ was the first   
   columnist, and I've mentioned before that Ed was also the author of   
   this weekly bulletin until 1991, when Ed became ill, and I offered   
   to write the bulletin for one week. I've been at it ever since, and   
   I expect that Ed was the original originator of this bulletin, but I   
   can't find anyone who knows when it began. I first copied it on CW   
   from W1AW in 1966, when I was a very young ham.   
      
   >From time to time I've paged through my old QSTs from the 1950s and   
   1960s looking for a reference to the bulletin, but have found none.   
   Maybe it is time to apply some modern search tools to the effort.   
      
   Check out http://www.livemeteors.com/ to hear real time audio   
   related to meteor activity. This site is run by Chip Sufitchi, N2YO,   
   who is in the Washington DC area, and uses an SDR receiver tuned to   
   55.23693 MHz with a Yagi pointed toward a channel 2 television tower   
   in Canada. The page also features both a spectral and a waterfall   
   display.   
      
   Here is an interesting article from the Daily Mail about a new space   
   telescope: www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2884213/ .   
      
   One more report came in concerning working Bob, ZL1RS on 6 meters,   
   reported in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP051. Bob   
   Miles, K9IL in Martin, Tennessee (EM56) wrote on December 19 that he   
   heard ZL1RS as good as 579 over three evenings around 0100 UTC.   
      
   This is the last propagation bulletin of 2014, and on a personal   
   note, back in 1999 in propagation bulletin 52 I made a brief mention   
   of completing my seventeenth season playing the Grandfather   
   character in Pacific Northwest Ballet's lavish production of   
   Nutcracker.   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP052/1999   
      
   And now we come to the end of the run. This weekend I am completing   
   my thirty-second season in this same role, but this is the final   
   year of this production, and my character doesn't appear in the   
   brand new 2015 production. This began for me with a series of   
   unlikely events in 1983 when Don Walter, W7NG recommended me for   
   this role in a brand new Nutcracker with sets and costumes by   
   children's book author and illustrator Maurice Sendak. It was a huge   
   hit, and as many as 46 performances are done (but I am not in all of   
   them) every December. The house holds an audience of 3,000 people.   
   This became hugely popular, so now that this is ending, every   
   performance has sold out. By noon the day after Thanksgiving, ticket   
   sales for this final Nutcracker hit seven-million dollars.   
      
   Every Christmas Eve we perform an alternative version, The Nutty   
   Nutcracker, with all kinds of gags and pratfalls, improvised and   
   with no rehearsal. On December 25, 2013 this photo appeared in the   
   Seattle Times:   
      
   http://seattletimes.com/ABPub/2013/12/24/2022523974.jpg   
      
   That's me in the brown coat, leaning back in shock, as I did not   
   know that the dancer crouching down on the right was going to   
   release a can of "Silly String" from an aerosol container in his   
   right hand, nor did I know that photos were taken. I sneak up on him   
   as he is about to let go with a tremendous dramatic sneeze while   
   facing the audience downstage center so that I can react and express   
   annoyance. He held the can so it appeared that it all projected from   
   his face.   
      
   On opening night this year at the end of November I gave a backstage   
   tour to a writer, who came up with this:   
      
   http://seattledances.com/tag/tad-cook/   
      
   Just click on the Christmas tree to see the article.   
      
   Here is an article about the big change:   
      
   http://seattletimes.com/html/pacificnw/2025158444_1221nutcracker   
   inalecover1xml .html   
      
   I will be sad after the final last performance, which begins at 2330   
   UTC on Sunday, December 28. I am the only player remaining from the   
   premiere season, and won't know what to do with myself in December   
   2015. But I love this company so much that I may come back as a   
   volunteer Kid Wrangler, herding the children from dressing rooms to   
   the stage and back. I am sad, but not bitter. It has been an   
   incredible run, far beyond what I ever could imagine!   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 18 through 24 were 168, 156, 120, 159,   
   113, 128, and 86, with a mean of 132.9. 10.7 cm flux was 213.2,   
   215.7, 203.2, 205.8, 179.2, 165.9, and 151.4, with a mean of 190.6.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 9, 14, 20, 13, and 17, with   
   a mean of 12.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 6, 10,   
   13, 8, and 12, with a mean of 8.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)