SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP51   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051   
   >From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 19, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity made a strong comeback this week, with the average   
   daily sunspot number on December 11-17 rising 57 points to 145.4   
   from the previous seven days, while average daily solar flux was up   
   28.1 points to 167.7.   
      
   But then toward the end of the week, activity made a large jump,   
   with solar flux at 213.2 on Thursday.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 220, 225, 220 and 210 on December 19-22,   
   then 200, 195, 190 and 160 on December 23-26, then 140 on December   
   27-29, 135 on December 30 through January 1, 140 on January 2-4, 145   
   on January 5, 155 on January 6-7, 160 on January 8, and 165 on   
   January 9-12. Flux values then peak at 175 on January 14-15.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 10 and 8 on December 19-22, 5   
   on December 23-27, 8 on December 28-30, 10 on December 31 and   
   January 1, then 12, 25, 15 and 10 on January 2-5, 8 on January 6-7,   
   10 on January 8-9, and 8 on January 10-12.   
      
   OK1MGW graces us with another of his geomagnetic forecasts. He   
   expects (although is uncertain about) quiet to active conditions on   
   December 19, mostly quiet December 20-21, quiet on December 22,   
   mostly quiet December 23-24, quiet on December 25-26, quiet to   
   unsettled December 27-28, mostly quiet December 29-31, quiet to   
   unsettled January 1-2, active to disturbed on January 3, quiet to   
   active January 4-5, quiet to unsettled January 6-7, quiet to active   
   January 8, quiet to unsettled January 9-10, quiet to active January   
   11, and mostly quiet January 12-14.   
      
   He expects increased solar wind on January 2-5 and 8-11.   
      
   Peter Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group, has   
   been producing weekly forecasts with OK1HH since 1978.   
      
   On December 17 the 10.7 cm receivers at Penticton must have become   
   overloaded, because NOAA/USAF adjusted the noon reading down from   
   198.5 to 192, which correlates to the earlier 10:00 AM reading of   
   191.5, rounded off.   
      
   We saw something similar on November 24, but in the opposite   
   direction. The three flux readings for the day were 170.1, 144.4,   
   and 168.4 at 10:00 AM, noon and 2:00 PM. It is always a rounded off   
   noon reading that NOAA reports, but this time it was bumped up from   
   144.4 to 172, I suppose to be more consistent with the other   
   readings. I've never noticed this before.   
      
   We saw another lowering of the reported flux number on November 5   
   when the three readings were 135.7, 145.2 and 136.3, but NOAA   
   reported 135 for the day.   
      
   At 0105 UTC on December 18 the Australian Space Forecast Centre   
   issued a geomagnetic warning. They said to expect a CME impact on   
   December 19-20, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity. The   
   warning says to expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on   
   December 19 and active conditions on December 20.   
      
   We received some great reports this week. First Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ   
   of Salem, Indiana wrote "10 meters still going strong" on December   
   13, and said running 25 watts into an inverted-V he worked about two   
   dozen stations in Colorado, California, Oregon, Utah, Iowa, Canada   
   and England.   
      
   Dennis Condron, K0LGI of Marion, Iowa sent some information on using   
   distant broadcast television signals to detect meteor trails. He   
   says Stan Nelson, KB5VL in Roswell, New Mexico also does this, and   
   has a web site at http://www.roswellmeteor.com/ which displays their   
   results.   
      
   One display at   
   http://www.roswellmeteor.com/geminid_activity_by_k0lgi.html shows   
   Dennis's results during the recent Geminid meteor shower. I think we   
   can assume that all these displays are quiet most of the time, and   
   that there are no local broadcasters using the same channels.   
      
   Also check http://www.spaceweatherradio.com/ .   
      
   A couple of reports came in over the past day from people who worked   
   ZL1RS on 6 meters.   
      
   Craig Hill, K3PLV of Erie, Pennsylvania reports, "At 0011Z on   
   December 15 I worked ZL1RS on 6 meters.  He was a true 559 when I   
   worked him.  I did not listen after I worked him so he may have even   
   gotten stronger later.  This is a new one for me on 6.  Usually   
   propagation to New Zealand just does not get this far north and east   
   on 6.  I live in Erie PA and envy the 6 meter propagation the   
   stations have in the southern part of the US.  The solar flux index   
   was 166.  I don't think that's high enough for F2 on 6 and it   
   wouldn't be transequatorial propagation.  So I'm confused how this   
   happened.  I saw no other stations spotted in the Pacific except a   
   few VKs just to Central and South America.  I run 1000 Watts to a 10   
   element yagi on 6, and ZL1RS uses a homebrew 7 element yagi on a 9.6   
   meter boom and an amplifier."   
      
   I suspect it was a lucky coincidence of two E-skip paths linking up.   
   And currently we are in the second (and smaller) annual E-skip   
   season. From the signal report it looks like he was using CW.   
      
   We received another report from Bruce Smith, AC4G of Taft, Tennessee   
   which is just about two miles north of the border with Alabama, and   
   about 80 miles directly south of Nashville.   
      
   "Very excited about my 6 meter CW QSO made on December 14 at 0020Z   
   on 50.103Mhz with ZL1RS. Signal reports both ways 559.  ZL1RS peaked   
   to S7 just before fading into the noise and gone in about 2 minutes,   
   never to be heard again.  This is the first ZL I have ever heard on   
   6 meters in EM65 southern Tennessee the blackhole of the US.  Just   
   thought I'd pass this along.   
      
   "Worked the ARRL 10 meter contest last weekend running 4.5 watts and   
   was able to make QSOs to South America, Alaska, Hawaii, and as far   
   away as Japan Sunday afternoon during 2 hours of operating."   
      
   Sounds so great!  Thanks, Bruce.   
      
   Since the two contacts with the same New Zealand station were about   
   24 hours apart, I am wondering if instead of occurring on subsequent   
   days, they were actually just a few minutes apart? Just from my   
   experience with these sorts of things, I suspect they both occurred   
   on December 14 in North America time, but K3PLV used the actual UTC   
   date (the next day) but maybe AC4G reported his local date, while   
   reading the UTC time off his clock? It happens! I've made the same   
   mistake in the past. The same confusion often arises when trying to   
   figure out when the contest begins.  If it is 0001 UTC Saturday,   
   then here on the Left Coast it is 4:01 PM PST Friday.   
      
   Don't forget the ARRL CW Rookie Roundup this weekend. If you   
   received your license in 2012, 2013 or 2014, you are a Rookie and   
   eligible to compete.  The rest of us are encouraged to participate,   
   work the newcomers, and submit check logs.   
      
   http://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-cw-rookie-roundup-returns-on-december-21    
   has all the details.   
      
   Also, remember that SKN is less than two weeks away! Dust off that   
   old straight key and spend a mellow night operating and welcoming   
   the New Year. See http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night for   
   details. This is another test of your UTC savvy, mentioned above. It   
   begins on January 1, in the New Year, at 0000 UTC. That is 7:00 PM   
   EST on New Years Eve, December 31, 2014.   
      
   John Parnell, K7HV sent this in from Seattle, after responding to my   
   query about 10 meters last weekend:   
      
   "I did not do the contest seriously.  I did note that the fallout   
   from the CME and resultant high A index knocked out most of the path   
   to Europe, I only worked Spain and Canary Isle, in a short AM EU   
   opening from the Pacific NW.  The band was open elsewhere but a bit   
   noisy, more so on Sunday. Decent N-S path to Oceania and S Atlantic,   
   VP8RAF was very loud, decent openings to E/SE Asia in the   
   afternoons.   
      
   "BTW, I finally figured out a way to load my G5RV on 160 (by   
   shorting the ant and using an external tuner vs my rig's autotuner -   
   duh!).  I was therefore able to get on the ARRL 160 contest - my   
   first time on the band in years. With only a few hours of operating   
   I worked 28 states and 5 VE provinces, ALL over N America...THAT was   
   fun!   
      
   "As is traditional for this time of year, I am working VUs on 20.   
   Looking at my log, I see that I have only worked VU between late Oct   
   and early January...all long-path."   
      
   And another Northwest ham, who wishes to remain anonymous, sent   
   this:   
      
   "Are you kidding? It was GREAT!   
      
   "Limited EU of course, with the limited sunlit area on N Hemisphere   
   in mid December. And I understand there was an unusual opening over   
   the N pole at our midnight, into EU which almost everyone out here   
   missed.   
      
   "ZF2DX in Caymans did great. Kevin N5DX is his call. He is living   
   there now. Many did very well."   
      
   Check out this interesting Scientific American blog post about   
   applying AI to solar prediction:   
      
   http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2014/12/12/foreca   
   ting-the-suns- fury-how-artificial-intelligence-can-predict-solar-flares/   
   .   
      
   Also, this sounds like an interesting book combining art with   
   science:   
      
   http://publicradioeast.org/post/seeing-heaven-beauty-cosmigraphics   
      
   I have it on order from my local library.   
      
   And further, I am reluctant to pass this on, except that it reflects   
   the fears and concerns of some people who send me email with   
   questions, perhaps after doing a web search for "sunspot" or "solar   
   flare" or "end of the world as we know it."   
      
   It's funny:   
      
   http://www.elephantjournal.com/2014/12/the-musical-connection-be   
   ween-sunspot-c ycles-the-human-heart/   
   .   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 11 through 17 were 115, 132, 121, 175,   
   152, 169, and 154, with a mean of 145.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147.5,   
   154.2, 159.8, 166.4, 169.3, 184.6, and 192, with a mean of 167.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 21, 9, 11, 15, 8, and 8, with   
   a mean of 11.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 15, 7, 9,   
   11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 8.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)