SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP49   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 5, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose substantially over the past week,   
   from 97.4 in the previous seven days to 152 for the most recent.   
   Average daily solar flux rose from 168.9 to 172.1.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is currently 150 on December 5 and 6, 145 on   
   December 7, 140 on December 8 to 12, 180 on December 13 and 14, 185   
   on December 15 to 19, 170 on December 20 to 23, 175 on December 24   
   to 27, 180 on December 28 to 30, 170 on December 31 through January   
   1, then 165, 160, 170 and 175 on January 2 to 5, and 180 on January   
   6 to 10.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 5 to 12, 20 on December   
   13, 10 on December 14 and 15, then 8, 10 and 12 on December 16 to   
   18, 10 on December 19 to 20, 8 on December 21, 5 on December 22 to   
   27, then 15 and 12 on December 28 and 29, 8 on December 30 and 31,   
   and 5 on January 1 to 6.   
      
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW sent us his latest geomagnetic stability   
   forecast. This might be important for this weekend's ARRL 160 Meter   
   Contest.   
      
   Petr says to expect mostly quiet conditions December 5, quiet to   
   active December 6 and 7, quiet to unsettled December 8, mostly quiet   
   December 9 and 10, quiet to unsettled December 11, quiet to active   
   December 12 and 13, quiet to unsettled December 14 and 15, quiet to   
   active December 16 and 17, quiet to unsettled December 18 to 20,   
   mostly quiet December 21, quiet December 22, mostly quiet December   
   23 and 24, quiet on December 25 and 26, quiet to unsettled December   
   27 and 28, and mostly quiet December 29 to 31.   
      
   Petr also expects increased solar wind on December 5 to 7, 11 to 13   
   and 16 to 18.   
      
   Note that OK1MGW has quiet to active conditions December 6 and 7,   
   the days for the 160 Meter Contest, but the NOAA USAF prediction   
   says an A index of 5 (which is quiet) for all of December 5 to 12.   
      
   The Space Weather Prediction Center warns that although their   
   websites will remain up, the data will be stale from 6:00 AM until   
   6:00 PM MST on Saturday, December 13 due to system maintenance.   
      
   In addition, on December 2 SWPC posted this information:   
      
   "SWPC is pleased to announce that it will be switching to our new   
   website on December 9th.  When the site change is implemented   
   www.spaceweather.gov and www.swpc.noaa.gov will link to the new   
   website that is currently in final beta release at   
   origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov. SWPC's legacy website will be available to   
   all users for a transition period of at least 60 days (with the   
   exception of POES satellite products which will be discontinued   
   December 31). The legacy website will be located at   
   legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov.   
      
   Please note that if you have bookmarks or automatic links to pages   
   on the old website, these links will no longer work. Most of the   
   content will be available on the new site under new links and we   
   will work with customers who bring up specific content issues to   
   ensure that their links are re- established on the new site.   
      
   Since April 2014, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has   
   sought feedback from stakeholders and customers via a survey on the   
   beta release of the new website. We will continue to respond to   
   feedback from stakeholders and customers regarding issues of content   
   or behavior of the new site as we go through this transition to   
   operational status.   
      
   For questions or feedback regarding this action, please use our   
   feedback form:   
      
   http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/contact-us "   
      
   Now let us examine some recent averages and trends for daily sunspot   
   numbers. The average for the month of October was 92.1 and it was   
   101.9 for November.   
      
   Our three month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers centered on   
   January through October were 138.5, 146.4, 148.2, 129.6, 118.4,   
   112.8, 109.2, 115.6, 108.4 and 107. The reason it ended in October   
   is because this is the month the average is centered on, so the   
   number for October consists of all the data for September, October   
   and November, and the number centered on September is all the data   
   for August, September and October.   
      
   Ken Gordon, W7EKB of Moscow, Idaho sent in a suggestion for a   
   propagation program he likes, which is a part of the free Airmail   
   Pactor software package, which you can download from   
   http://siriuscyber.net/ham/ . He likes it better than the W6ELprop   
   program, which is also free. I had a couple of confusing issues to   
   work out to get it running, but Ken cleared things up.   
      
   Paging back through correspondence, I see that he also suggested it   
   in June 2013, but I was slow to act on it.   
      
   It gives you a nice percentage rating on the viability of the path,   
   and the resolution is in one degree steps.   
      
   You can enter the default geographic coordinates for your station,   
   but you actually need to pre-program the coordinates for every   
   location you want to target. Ken says to edit some system files   
   which were not apparent when I hunted for them, but you can actually   
   edit a station list by clicking View, Station List, then click on   
   the Ham folder and click the New button. The simplest way I found to   
   do this was get the grid square from WM7D.net for domestic call   
   signs, and you can enter this and the program will calculate the   
   geographic coordinates.   
      
   Then to calculate path reliability or signal strength (I think based   
   on 100 watts and a dipole), click View, Propagation or hit F8 and   
   your station list comes up, and the option to enter either solar   
   flux or sunspot numbers. I just averaged solar flux for the past 3   
   days and used that.   
      
   Then in the top Frequency window I enter the frequency in KHz.   
   Remember it is KHz, so the low end of 20 meters might be 14020, but   
   never 14.02.   
      
   There is also a way to have a list of frequencies shown for each   
   station, but I am not that far along with it to describe it here.   
      
   To run the calculation, just hit the update button over on the   
   right.   
      
   The ARRL Ten Meter Contest is next weekend, December 13 and 14. Find   
   details at http://www.arrl.org/10-meter .   
      
   Note this event runs from 0000 UTC Saturday through 2359 UTC on   
   Sunday. For most of us the start of the contest will be late   
   afternoon or early evening on Friday.   
      
   Fortunately the Geminid meteor shower should peak on December 14, so   
   ten meter propagation may be aided by ionization from meteor trails.   
   NASA has detected meteor fireballs beginning two weeks before the   
   peak, according to Spaceweather.com.   
      
   Spaceweather.com also reported an M-6 class solar flare at 1825 UTC   
   on December 4, and this caused a brief HF radio blackout in the   
   Western Hemisphere. There was no CME. Forecasters estimate a   
   forty-percent chance of additional M-flares over the next day or so.   
      
   We have all enjoyed the all-over real-time views of the sun at   
   http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ .  But Don Kalinowski, NJ2E of Cary,   
   North Carolina reports that contact with the STEREO B spacecraft has   
   been lost.   
      
   http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/stereo-b-contact-l   
   st-11212014/?e t_mid=706619&rid=246428211   
      
   View a series of solar images at   
   http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/curiosity/topics/sunspot-pictures/ and   
   http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=105003   
   HPSESSID=2vpvk jg2rm771nb6726mhql492 .   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 27 through December 3 were 155, 166,   
   156, 153, 160, 146, and 128, with a mean of 152. 10.7 cm flux was   
   178.8, 181.4, 177.3, 177.3, 168.1, 167.7, and 154.2, with a mean of   
   172.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 5, 9, 10, 12, and 8,   
   with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 5,   
   6, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)