SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 7, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity softened a bit this week. From October 30 through   
   November 5 the average daily sunspot number was 95.7, down 24.2   
   points from the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux   
   declined from 198 to 127.9.   
      
   On November 5 Penticton reported the noon solar flux reading at   
   145.2, but it must have been flare-enhanced because NOAA scaled it   
   back to 135 in their data.   
      
   The latest forecast has solar flux at 135 on November 7, then 140 on   
   November 8-10, 145 on November 11-12, then 150, 160 and 170 on   
   November 13-15, 180 on November 16-17, 190 on November 18, and   
   peaking at 200 on November 19-20, then dropping down below 100 after   
   November 30 and reaching a low of 80 on December 5. Flux values then   
   rise to 180 on December 16-17.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, on November 7-13, 12 on November   
   14-15, then 22, 15 and 10 on November 16-18, 8 on November 19-21, 12   
   on November 22-24, 8 on November 25 and 5 on November 26-30.   
      
   OK1HH predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on November   
   7, mostly quiet November 8-9, quiet to unsettled November 10, mostly   
   quiet November 11-12, active to disturbed on November 13, quiet on   
   November 14-15, active to disturbed November 16, quiet to active   
   November 17-19, mostly quiet November 20-21, quiet to active   
   November 22, quiet to unsettled November 23-24, quiet to active   
   November 25, mostly quiet November 26, quiet November 27-30, active   
   to disturbed December 1, and back to quiet again on December 2-3.   
      
   OK1HH expects enhanced solar wind on November 8, 19-21 and 29,   
   although he is less certain about November 8.   
      
   October is over, so let's look at our 3-month moving average of   
   sunspot numbers. Average sunspot number for October was 92.1, down   
   from 127.4 for September. The three month average ending in October   
   was 100.4, the lowest average since a year earlier, when it was   
   102.9. The three month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers   
   centered on August 2013 through September 2014 were 77.4, 91.2,   
   102.9, 123.7, 123.3, 138.5, 146.4, 148.2, 129.6, 118.4, 112.8,   
   109.2, 115.6 and 100.4. From this data it seems pretty clear that   
   the currently solar cycle peaked earlier this year, around February   
   and March 2014.   
      
   The official peak will be determined much later using a year-long   
   moving average. During Cycle 24 I decided to try a much shorter   
   period for averages to see if trends could be spotted sooner with a   
   more agile arithmetic average. I think it worked out well. Next year   
   NOAA will release some official charts based on the 1-year smoothed   
   sunspot numbers, and I suspect the results should be about the same,   
   although the NOAA graph will appear much smoother.   
      
   The yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers from 2008-2013 were   
   4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3 and 97.1. So far in 2014 the average is   
   122.7, for the 309 days from January 1 through November 5.   
      
   On November 1, Brendan Wahl, WA7HL near Bisbee, Arizona (in DM51ck,   
   less than 10 miles north of our border with the state of Sonora in   
   Mexico) wrote in an email that for various reasons he has been off   
   the air for a long time, and plans on erecting a 31 foot vertical   
   soon. But he is very active monitoring WSPR mode on 10 meters.   
      
   He writes, "The last month has been fantastic DX on 10 meters: I   
   have spotted E51, CX2, VK, and ZL virtually every time I monitor the   
   band. Earlier this morning (1 Nov) I received spots from OZ, SQ, D,   
   F, G, PD5, ON, TI3, and TA2.   
      
   "Both the SQ and the TA are completely new countries for me. Over   
   these weeks I have also spotted FR5, and ZR6 as well, sometimes well   
   after local sunset here in Arizona. I have been able to, on separate   
   days, spot every western EU country at least once using WSPR on 10   
   meters. For the Pacific region, JAs are common (but not entirely   
   regular), and the VKs, ZLs, KH6, and E51 are seemingly always there.   
   North America is too easy, and on those days when propagation has   
   gone elsewhere, I've gotten only NA stations.   
      
   "In short, nearly every continent has been spotted by my WSPR gear   
   on 10 meters. Most amazing is that I'm doing this using a Comet   
   DS150S discone antenna, good for 25 to 1500 MHz. At only about 4   
   feet high and mounted about 11 feet up, it's quieter than my very   
   low dipole, and much less prone to interference. I use a FiFi SDR as   
   my main receiver currently, without any antenna tuning whatsoever.   
   Antenna to radio to PC: that's all. When I shift to the vertical,   
   I'll be using a Yaesu FT-817 for WSPR duties as I want to see how   
   far I can get with that mode.   
      
   "Conditions on 10 have been so good, I'm not currently bothering   
   with the other bands. While I am not making 'real' QSOs, it's still   
   fun to watch the DX roll in."   
      
   Readers who have not been getting the same results on 10 meters with   
   CW or SSB should keep in mind that the WSPR mode is used for   
   extremely weak signal communications, and when communicating, these   
   stations are just handshaking automatically and exchanging very   
   little data. The band may sound dead, but WSPR seizes the tiniest   
   shred of a signal, verifies it, and that counts as communication. It   
   turns out that communication of some sort is possible via some very   
   marginal paths. But this is for verifying marginal propagation modes   
   that we did not know existed until the powerful WSPR protocol was   
   able to detect it.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 30 through November 5 were 121, 71, 82,   
   91, 93, 99, and 113, with a mean of 95.7. 10.7 cm flux was 140.4,   
   121.2, 119.9, 124.4, 125.2, 129.4, and 135, with a mean of 127.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 6, 9, 6, 21, and 16, with a   
   mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 5, 6, 5,   
   12, and 13, with a mean of 7.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)