SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP43   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 24, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity is making a healthy comeback, just in time for the   
   SSB weekend of the CQ World Wide DX Contest. The contest begins   
   tonight at 0000 UTC and ends Sunday October 26 at 23:59:59 UTC. See   
   http://www.cqww.com/rules.htm for rules. The contest is always held   
   on the last full weekend of October, while the CW contest is the   
   last full weekend in November.   
      
   A series of large solar flares erupted this week, almost too many to   
   count. Spaceweather.com says a single large sunspot has produced 27   
   C-class flares, 8 M-class flares, 2 X-flares. The most powerful was   
   an X1.6 flare on October 22. On Wednesday evening in North America   
   the sunspot was directly facing earth. By early Friday morning it   
   had moved off dead center by about 15 degrees, according to the   
   image on the STEREO website at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ .  The   
   magnetically active areas are represented by those white splotches.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 55.1 during October 9 to 15 to   
   83.9 this week, and average daily solar flux increased from 117.4 to   
   174.   
      
   The predicted solar flux for this weekend is 230, which is higher   
   than on any day since January 7 of this year, when it was 237.1.   
   Prior to that, we didn't see solar flux values this high since 11   
   years ago, in late October 2003. But accompanying the high solar   
   flux back then was a great deal of geomagnetic activity. On October   
   29, 2003 the mid-latitude A index was 199! Several 3-hour K index   
   values were 9, which I believe is the top of the scale. On that same   
   day the daily sunspot number was 330 and the solar flux was 291.7.   
   Those are huge numbers. You can read about it by looking in the   
   archives of propagation bulletins at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .   
      
   Now back to the present, predicted solar flux is 230 on October 24   
   to 26, 225 on October 27 and 28, then 220, 205 and 190 on October 29   
   to 31, and 130 on November 1 to 3. Solar flux drops to a low of 110   
   on November 8 and rises to 180 on November 19 and 20.   
      
   Along with that relatively high solar flux this weekend will be   
   unsettled geomagnetic conditions.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 15 on October 23 and 24, 10 on   
   October 25, 12 on October 26 and 27, 10 on October 28 and 29, 8 on   
   October 30, 5 on October 31 through November 3, 8 on November 4, 10   
   on November 5, 8 on November 6 and 7, 5 on November 8 and 9, 8 on   
   November 10 and 11, then 5 and 8 on November 12 and 13, 12 on   
   November 14 and 15, 15 and 12 on November 16 and 17, 15 on November   
   18 and 19, then 12, 10 and 8 on November 20 to 22 and 10 on November   
   23 and 24.   
      
   OK1HH has his own geomagnetic prediction, and he sees the   
   geomagnetic field as active to disturbed on October 24, quiet to   
   active October 25, active to disturbed October 26 and quiet to   
   active October 28, mostly quiet October 29, quiet October 30 through   
   November 1, mostly quiet November 2, quiet to unsettled November 3,   
   quiet to active November 4, active to disturbed November 5 (although   
   he is unsure about that date), quiet to active November 6, mostly   
   quiet November 7, quiet November 8 and 9, quiet to active November 10,   
   quiet to unsettled November 11 and 12, quiet to active November 13   
   and 14,   
   active to disturbed November 15 and 16 (but he is unsure about November   
   15), quiet to unsettled November 17 and mostly quiet on November 18.   
      
   In an email Mark Challender, NG2G, said in part: "...nobody ever   
   really says, in plain English -- the higher the solar flux the better   
   the bands are going to be. There are a lot of people, I am sure, who   
   could benefit from this information."   
      
   Thanks, Mark! OK, I will say it. Higher solar flux means a greater   
   chance for long distance HF communications. It also suggests   
   propagation at higher frequencies, so that is why 10 meters is   
   better at the top of the solar cycle, when there is more solar   
   activity and greater ionization of the ionosphere. Except when solar   
   flares cause a geomagnetic storm, with higher A index numbers, right   
   now the combination of the fall season and higher solar activity   
   signals greater opportunities on HF radio.   
      
   You can use a propagation prediction program to get a sense of how   
   seasonal variations, location and solar activity affect   
   communications. K9LA has a free download of W6ELprop and a tutorial   
   on how to use it, at http://k9la.us/html/tutorials.html . It is a   
   Windows program that works great in Windows XP, but in Windows 7   
   I've only made it work using XP mode.   
      
   This week's solar activity generated a lot of interest from the   
   press, and here are a few articles to check out:   
      
   http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/10/22/sunspot_2192   
   x_flare_seen_t his_morning.html   
      
   http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/mammoth-earth-swa   
   lowing-sunspot -blasts-out-x-class-flare/38243/   
      
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/22/solar-flares-disrupting   
   radio-communic ations_n_6029862.html?utm_hp_ref=email_share   
      
   http://www.tampabay.com/news/science/space/ginormous-sunspot-mak   
   s-todays-solar -eclipse-much-cooler-wvideo/2203375   
      
   Thanks to W9IND and David Moore for news tips.   
      
   A glance at geomagnetic indicators shows that the main geomagnetic   
   effect was on Monday, October 20:   
      
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt   
      
   Note that in Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index reached 48, which   
   is quite high.   
      
   Strangely, we received no reports from readers this week about on   
   air activity or observations.  Perhaps everyone was too busy on the   
   air to write.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 16 through 22 were 66, 39, 60, 86, 93,   
   120, and 123, with a mean of 83.9. 10.7 cm flux was 139, 146, 160,   
   173, 185, 199, and 216, with a mean of 174. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 7, 8, 15, 11, 26, 15, and 14, with a mean of 13.7.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 11, 9, 17, 11, and 10,   
   with a mean of 9.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until   
   you hire an amateur.   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)