SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP02   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 14, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP002   
   ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined 12 points to 38 during the   
   past week - when compared to the previous week of December 30   
   through January 5 - when the average was exactly 50.  Average daily   
   solar flux declined by nearly six points to 83.8.  The latest   
   forecast shows solar flux at 80 on January 14-15, 78 on January   
   16-21, and back to 80 on January 22-25, 82 on January 26, 88 on   
   January 27-30, and 89 on January 31. The same forecast has planetary   
   A index for January 14 at 8, January 15 at 7, and January 16-31 at   
   5.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague sees unsettled geomagnetic conditions   
   on January 14-15, quiet to unsettled January 16, unsettled January   
   17-18, quiet to unsettled January 19, and quiet on January 20.   
      
   The STEREO mission's coverage of the entire Sun is nearly complete,   
   with continuous images showing more than 99.2% of our nearest star.   
   By Sunday evening in North America, the project will have passed   
   99.34% coverage.  The black band of unseen area (seen at   
   http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/) is now just a tiny sliver, and   
   magnetically active areas over the entire Sun may now be observed   
   live from any place with an internet connection at any time of the   
   day or night.   
      
   In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 we discussed   
   W1YO's comments on HF propagation, and this prompted a question from   
   Howard Lester, N7SO of Schuylerville, New York.  He thought it would   
   be more instructive if we intended to illustrate seasonal variation   
   by using the same sunspot number for the April prediction as for the   
   January prediction.  That is true, but since the prediction engine   
   is based on a statistical model that employs the predicted smoothed   
   sunspot number (not the latest actual sunspot number), I thought it   
   would be interesting to use the official smoothed prediction from   
   NOAA, to illustrate how conditions might actually play out. Thus we   
   changed two variables, the date and sunspot number. It is important   
   to keep in mind that the smoothed sunspot number for January is   
   predicted as well, because it uses about a year of data to arrive at   
   the number.  We know what the last six months of data is, but the   
   component that makes up the next six months is predicted, and   
   currently unknown.  So in order to know the true smoothed sunspot   
   number, you need to go back at least six months.   
      
   In last week's bulletin we used the table on page 11 of the document   
   at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1844.pdf. In that table,   
   all of the smoothed sunspot numbers from January 2009 through June   
   2010 are know quantities.  Each month after June 2010 uses a   
   declining number of months of known data. July 2010 uses 11 months   
   of known data, and one month (January 2011) of predicted data.   
   August 2010 uses 10 months of known data, and two months   
   (January-February 2011) of predicted data, and so on.   
      
   How do past predicted smoothed numbers compare with the ones we now   
   know for sure?  The first six months of 2010 have known smoothed   
   sunspot numbers of 9, 11, 12, 14, 16 and 16.  If we go back two   
   months, to the first week in November,   
   (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/2010_WeeklyPDF/prf1835.pdf), the   
   numbers for the same months track closely (9, 11, 12, 14, 16 and   
   19).  Of course, going back two months, the only months the smoothed   
   sunspot number is not known for sure are May and June 2010.   
      
   Every time we step back a month, the series diverges a little more   
   from the actual outcome. At   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/2010_WeeklyPDF/prf1831.pdf we see   
   October's projection for those months, and it is 9, 11, 12, 15, 18,   
   and 21.   
      
   Go back to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/2010_WeeklyPDF/prf1827.pdf and it is   
   now 9, 11, 13, 16, 19 and 22 for September.   
      
   In August we see 9, 11, 14, 17, 20 and 23 at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/2010_WeeklyPDF/prf1822.pdf.   
      
   In July at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/2010_WeeklyPDF/prf1818.pdf we see   
   variation all the way back to January, at 10, 13, 15, 18, 21 and 24.   
   You can see now why forecasts for the increase of this solar cycle   
   keep getting scaled back to track actual outcomes more closely.   
      
   W1YO commented this week that Cycle 24 is different. "It's slow to   
   climb and the effects of high SSNs and solar flux are not long   
   lasting. I have been through 5 solar cycles and this one is not   
   normal."   
      
   Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona commented on 6 meters in the   
   New Year: "January 11 just after midnight GMT, ZL1RS was worked on 6   
   CW followed by VK3OT then ZL2TPY on SSB followed by VK4MA back on   
   CW. What a surprise opening that was. Hopefully this is leading us   
   into a very good January VHF contest weekend coming up soon.   
   Neither high power nor big antenna systems needed for these QSOs.  I   
   only have 100 watts and a 5 element Yagi at 40 ft fed with 1/2 inch   
   hard-line.  Signals were very easily copyable without wearing cans."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK in Lawrence, Kansas (EM28) reported on January 12,   
   "Made my first 6 Meter QSO (and first QSO) of the New Year 2011   
   today with XE2OR/m.   
      
   "Rafael was mobile in the rare grid DL97 and worked at 2330 UTC Jan.   
   9 on 50.125 MHz via E-skip. He was strong with considerable QSB.   
   Heard him work a few other zeros and N5JEH NM also spotted him. He   
   was using an IC-706MIIG and a whip antenna.   
      
   "Noted 2x Es from Costa Rica to Colorado and earlier in the   
   afternoon single hop from ZF to W4."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12 were 28, 52, 52, 50, 35,   
   26, and 23, with a mean of 38. 10.7 cm flux was 86.8, 86.4, 84.8,   
   82.7, 83.3, 82.6 and 80 with a mean of 83.8. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 8, 11, 7, 5, 5, 5 and 6 with a mean of 6.7. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 9, 10, 6, 4, 4, 5 and 6 with a mean of   
   6.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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