SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP34   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 22, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar indices and outlook are stronger this week. Average daily   
   sunspot numbers rose 19.7 points to 114.6, while average daily solar   
   flux increased 25.7 points to 138.8. Average daily estimated   
   planetary A index dropped from 7.4 to 4.3. This compares the August   
   14 to 20 period against the previous seven days.   
      
   The day with the greatest geomagnetic activity was Tuesday, August   
   19 when the planetary A index was 17. This was caused by a weak CME,   
   but according to Spaceweather.com the inner magnetic structure   
   "contained a region of south pointing magnetism that partially   
   cancelled Earth's north pointing magnetic field." This opened a   
   crack in the magnetosphere, and solar wind poured through,   
   triggering unexpectedly brilliant aurora.   
      
   The outlook for solar activity has improved. A week ago the average   
   predicted solar flux for the next ten days, August 22 to 31, was 121.   
   Now based on the Thursday, August 21 prediction the average solar   
   flux for the same period has risen to 149.5, a robust increase of   
   28.5 points.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 140 on August 22 to 26, 150 on August 27, 160   
   on August 28 to 30, and 165 on August 31. Flux values then drop to 125,   
   130, 125, 120, 115 and 110 on September 1 to 6, 105 on September 7 to 9,   
   100 on September 10 and 110 on September 11 and 12. It meanders a bit,   
   and then rises to 140 on September 24 before declining again.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 22, 5 on August 23 to 28, 8   
   on August 29, then 5, 12, 10 and 8 on August 30 through September 2,   
   5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on September 6 and 7, 10 on September 8, 5 on   
   September 9 to 14, 12 and 14 on September 15 and 16, then 8 on September   
   17 and 18, and 5 on September 19 to 23.   
      
   F. K. Janda, OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to   
   unsettled August 22, active to disturbed August 23, quiet to   
   unsettled August 24, mostly quiet August 25, quiet to active August   
   26 to 29, active to disturbed August 30, quiet to active August 31,   
   mostly quiet September 1 and 2, quiet to unsettled September 3, quiet   
   September 4 and 5, quiet to unsettled September 6, quiet September 7,   
   mostly quiet September 8 and quiet to unsettled September 9.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK reports a late season e-skip opening on August 16   
   around 0015 UTC. AA6YQ (FN42) was very loud on 6 meters across the   
   south and Midwest.   
      
   Several stations in Washington State heard the VE8WD six meter   
   beacon on 50.02 MHz from Yellowknife, NW Territories at 0220 to 0249   
   UTC on August 20. The distance was about 1100 miles.   
      
   Check out the DX maps at http://n3tuq.com/dxmap.php . You can look   
   at real time contacts on 10, 6 or 2 meters, giving a picture of   
   propagation around the world. Right now at 1300 UTC the sun is   
   rising over the West Coast of North America, and I am looking at a   
   large number of 6 meter contacts all over Europe. I switched to 10   
   meters, and I can see contacts between Europe and Ethiopia,   
   Thailand, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 14 through 20 were 108, 119, 99, 121, 92,   
   84, and 89, with a mean of 114.6. 10.7 cm flux was 102.7, 113.1,   
   112, 115.1, 110.6, 111, and 118, with a mean of 138.8.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 7, 5, 17, and 6, with a mean of   
   4.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 4, 9, 5, 14, and   
   7, with a mean of 3.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
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