SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP32   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 8, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP032   
   ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We saw rising solar activity over the past week, with average daily   
   sunspot number increasing from 107.7 to 136.7. Average daily solar   
   flux went from 125 for the previous seven days to 149.6 for the   
   current period, July 31 through August 6. Thursday, August 7 saw the   
   sunspot number increase to 158 with solar flux at 136.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 130 on August 8, 125 on August 9 and 10,   
   then 120, 110 and 105 on August 11 to 13, 100, 105 and 110 on August   
   14 to 16, 100 on August 17 to 19, 105 on August 20 and 21, 110 and   
   115 on August 22 and 23, 120 on August 24 and 26, 125 on August 27   
   and 28, 120 on August 29 and 30, a jump to 150 on August 31 through   
   September 3, then a decline to 140, 135, 130 and 120 on September 4   
   to 7, and 115 on September 8 and 9. Flux then drops to a low of 100   
   on September 13 to 15, before rising again. We've seen no flux   
   values below 100 in the outlook since the August 2 forecast.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 8, 5 on August 9 to 21, 8   
   on August 22 and 23, 5 on August 24 to 27, 8 on August 28 and 29, 5   
   on August 30, 8 on August 31 through September 1, 5 on September 2,   
   and 8 on September 3 and 4.   
      
   F. K. Janda, OK1HH believes we should see quiet to unsettled   
   geomagnetic conditions August 8, quiet to active August 9, quiet to   
   unsettled August 10, mostly quiet August 11, quiet August 12 to 15,   
   mostly quiet August 16, quiet again on August 17 and 18, mostly   
   quiet August 19 to 21, quiet to unsettled August 22, active to   
   disturbed August 23, quiet to unsettled August 24, mostly quiet   
   August 25, quiet to active August 26 to 29, active to disturbed   
   August 30, quiet to active August 31, quiet on September 1, mostly   
   quiet September 2 and quiet to unsettled on September 3.  OK1HH   
   believes there could be increases in solar wind on August 10 to 12,   
   more so on August 11.   
      
   Last week's bulletin reported computer network issues at Canada's   
   Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in British Columbia. They   
   came back online catching up with some backlogged data, but now are   
   off again.   
      
   Elwood Downey, WB0OEW reports that the problem is due to a cyber   
   attack. He sent us these links:   
      
   http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=index&crtr.page=1&nid=8   
   1449&_ga=1.135 133491.345880733.1401996591   
      
   http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/cyber/statements/20140729_cyber.html   
      
   He also reports that updates will be posted here:   
      
   http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/index.html   
      
   Check "Latest NRC Headlines."   
      
   No updates are posted since July 31.   
      
   Don't know what happened this week, but we received no propagation   
   reports or queries from readers, but we did get an interesting   
   question from Bruce Stewart, W8CPG of West Virginia regarding that   
   huge solar flare in 2012 that missed us by several days.   
      
   Bruce wrote: "How would the 2012 solar flare announced recently on   
   network news have affected ham radio communications? I understand   
   commercial power grids probably would have been disrupted, but if   
   equipped with auxiliary power, would ham radio operations been   
   disrupted/disabled?"   
      
   Bruce is talking about a major solar flare that was aimed squarely   
   into Earth's orbit, but we were about a week away from being in   
   position to receive the effects. If aimed squarely at Earth, I   
   suspect the effect on HF propagation would be major, with at least   
   several days of high absorption along with a wiped out ionosphere.   
      
   But a larger concern would be the effects on the power grid. With   
   power transmission lines acting as huge antennas, large 500kV or   
   765kV transformers could overheat and fail, with the collapse of the   
   electric grid having a domino effect. There aren't a lot of spares   
   sitting around, and lead time on manufacturing new large   
   transformers is at least ten months. But that assumes that you have   
   an operating power grid to support building and transporting new   
   equipment.   
      
   An interesting article written early in 2012 before the big flare   
   talks about a study of just such a scenario:   
      
   http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2012/February/pag   
   s/Catastrophic SolarFlareScenarioTouchesOffStormyDebate.aspx   
      
   Kappenman, mentioned in the article wrote this report two years   
   prior to that article, for Oak Ridge National Laboratory:   
      
   http://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cy   
   ersecurity/fer c_meta-r-319.pdf   
      
   The acronym GIC mentioned frequently in that article stands for   
   Geomagnetically Induced Currents. A web search on the term yields   
   many interesting references.   
      
   Bonneville Power Administration released this report on their asset   
   management strategy for their substations, which gives you an idea   
   of some of the metrics involved:   
      
   https://www.bpa.gov/Finance/FinancialPublicProcesses/CapitalInve   
   tmentReview/ci rdocuments/Transmission_ACSubstations_DAS.pdf   
      
   Well, that is way off the subject of our bulletin, but it is   
   interesting to think about the possible worst case effects of a   
   major geomagnetic storm.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 31 through August 6 were 139, 165, 178,   
   152, 111, 93, and 119, with a mean of 136.7. 10.7 cm flux was 156.4,   
   168, 156, 152, 139, 139, and 137, with a mean of 149.6.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 5, 10, 11, 7, 12, 10, and 7, with a mean of   
   8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 14, 12, 7, 15, 12, and   
   7, with a mean of 10.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)