SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030   
   ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP30   
   QST de W1AW   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30  ARLP030   
   > From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 25, 2014   
   To all radio amateurs   
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP030   
   ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Last Thursday (July 17) had no sunspots at all, a sobering reminder   
   of how weak this solar cycle is. We have to go way back to August   
   14, 2011 to find the last spotless day, and there was only one other   
   day with no sunspots in 2011, on January 27.   
      
   On July 18 two new sunspot regions emerged, but the sunspot number   
   was only 26. Two days later, on Sunday July 20 the sunspot number   
   was just 17, and another new sunspot group emerged. On Tuesday two   
   new sunspot regions appeared with a sunspot number of 40, and the   
   next day, July 23, the sunspot number was 55 and another new one   
   emerged.   
      
   Solar flux ranged from a low of 86.1 on July 19 to a high of 99.1 on   
   July 23. Outside of those seven days, on July 24 the solar flux was   
   104, and the sunspot number remained at 55.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers from July 17 to 23 were only 25.9,   
   down from 96.9 in the previous seven day period. Average daily solar   
   flux dropped nearly 41 points to 90.3.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110, 115 and 125 on July   
   25 to 27, 140, 155 and 170 on July 28 to 30, then 185, 170, and 155   
   on July 31 through August 2, 150 on August 3 to 5, then 145, 140,   
   135 and 125 on August 6 to 9, 120, 115 and 110 on August 10 to 12,   
   105 on August 13 and 14, then dropping down to 85 on August 18, and   
   rising to 150 on August 29.   
      
   Planetary A index was quiet over the past week, and is predicted at   
   8 on July 25 and 26, 5 on July 27 and 28, 12 and 10 on July 29 and   
   30, 5 on July 31 through August 4, 8 on August 5 and 6, 5 on August   
   7 to 9, 8 on August 10 and 11, then 5 on August 12 to 16, 8 on   
   August 17 and 18, 5 on August 19 and 20, then 10 and 8 on August 21   
   and 22.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH says to expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions   
   July 25 and 26, quiet to unsettled July 27, quiet July 28, quiet to   
   unsettled July 29, quiet July 30 and 31, quiet to unsettled August   
   1, quiet on August 2, quiet to active August 3, quiet to unsettled   
   August 4 to 7, quiet August 8, quiet to active August 9, active to   
   disturbed August 10, quiet to active August 11, quiet August 12 to   
   15, mostly quiet August 16, quiet to unsettled August 17, mostly   
   quiet August 18, quiet August 19, quiet to active August 20 and   
   active to disturbed August 21.   
      
   Lots of comments this week asking where the sunspots have gone, such   
   as this L.A. Times article, at   
   http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-the-sun-goes   
   eerily-quiet-2 0140718-story.html   
   No sunspots? Sky and Telescope recommends   
   observing faculae:   
   http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/observing-news/how   
   to-see-solar-f aculae-072320143/ .   
      
   Thanks to W9WS and TI3/W7RI   
      
   Southgate Amateur Radio Club has a video with recordings of aurora   
   communications on 2 meters in Europe ten years ago today, July 25,   
   2004. You can watch it at   
   http://www.southgatearc.org/news/2014/july/sunspot_652_vhf_auror   
   _in_belgium.ht m .   
      
   Ray Soifer, W2RS of Green Valley, Arizona continued comments from   
   last week about six meter propagation:   
      
   "Chordal hop Es seems as plausible an explanation as any for my July   
   5 SSB QSO with EA8DBM, but there's a second chapter to this tale: my   
   CW QSO the following day, at 1447Z.  Two such openings on successive   
   days? Maybe that's why it's the Magic Band: magicians don't reveal   
   their tricks.   
      
   Most people who don't live out here (DM41) don't realize how rare   
   transatlantic propagation is for us this far southwest in the   
   absence of F2. In 5 years on the band from this QTH, I've heard (and   
   worked) only two such stations beyond the Caribbean: CU2JT on June   
   24, 2010, and these two QSOs with Alex. I have worked 47 states (all   
   but DE, AK and HI) on CW and/or SSB, but Europe doesn't come easy."   
      
   TI3/W7RI made some comments about propagation in Costa Rica:   
      
   "Here in the lower latitudes, we're seeing the expected downward   
   trend in propagation due to the current sunspot lull. Propagation on   
   10 meters has been spotty at best - typical of what is normally seen   
   at a solar minimum, and the daily 15 meter openings have been   
   starting later in the morning, the mid-day break lasting longer, and   
   the band closing earlier in the evening.   
      
   Even 20 meters has been rather spartan, and closing completely a few   
   hours after sunset on some days - normally, it's open around the   
   clock here. Not a huge surprise, given that the 304a index is the   
   lowest I have seen it since the last solar minimum - and   
   occasionally even lower than it was during much of that time.   
      
   Six meters hasn't seen a single opening from here in Costa Rica into   
   the States in over a month, just the occasional, brief opening into   
   the Leeward Islands from time to time, sometimes just after sunrise   
   - probably Es. Europe, from here in Central America, remains a dream   
   for this season, nothing so far. Usually, we've had several good   
   openings by this part of the season, but not this year."   
      
   And Pete Corp, K2ARM also reported on 6 meters on July 23:   
   "Propagation finally came through for my area in the Northeast. I   
   worked 3 more countries plus more stations in other countries I have   
   worked before. The 6 meter CW portion was all signals from Europe,   
   great operators. It sure looked like F2 but it couldn't be has to be   
   E2."   
      
   On July 21 Pete wrote, "Tad, that was very good information on the   
   cycles and the days with no sun spots and even though the HF bands   
   are poor now and the SFI is only 89, 6 meters opened to Europe this   
   morning and even I worked 2 new countries. It seems like E skip   
   during the summer can happen most anytime and my records for the   
   last 3 years show good openings every 5 or 6 days. Today I could   
   copy 10 or more Europeans but could only work the two."   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good   
   information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for July 17 through 23 were 0, 26, 27, 17, 16, 40,   
   and 55, with a mean of 25.9.  10.7 cm flux was 88.6, 88.5, 86.1,   
   87.1, 90.1, 92.6, and 99.1, with a mean of 90.3. Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 5, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, and 6, with a mean of 4.3.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, with   
   a mean of 5.   
   NNNN   
   /EX    
      
      
   )\/(ark   
      
   One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a   
   gang of brutal facts. --Benjamin Franklin   
      
   --- FMail/Win32 1.60   
    * Origin:  (1:3634/12.71)